{"id":117811,"date":"2025-04-23T08:55:28","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T07:55:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=117811"},"modified":"2025-04-23T08:55:28","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T07:55:28","slug":"nigerias-economic-outlook-dims-as-imf-projects-37-inflation-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/news\/nigerias-economic-outlook-dims-as-imf-projects-37-inflation-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Nigeria\u2019s Economic Outlook Dims as IMF Projects 37% Inflation in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>Daniel Adaji<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Nigeria\u2019s inflation rate is expected to spike to 37 per cent in 2026, a development the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns will significantly hamper economic recovery and reduce the current account surplus to just 5.2 per cent of Gross Domestic Product.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>The grim projection, revealed in the IMF\u2019s April 2025 World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, also includes a downward revision of Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth to 3.0 per cent in 2025 and 2.7 per cent in 2026\u2014down from an earlier 3.4 per cent in 2024.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>The IMF attributes the weakening outlook to falling oil revenues and unresolved structural issues.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Although inflation is forecast to ease temporarily to 26.5 per cent in 2025, the Fund stresses that \u201cprice stability remains elusive\u201d and calls for a \u201ctight monetary policy stance\u201d and a clearly defined disinflation strategy to anchor expectations.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Real per capita income growth is also expected to remain sluggish\u20140.6 per cent in 2025 and 0.3 per cent in 2026\u2014well below regional averages, underscoring persistent poverty and inequality.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>The country\u2019s current account surplus, which stood at 9.1 per cent of GDP in 2024, is projected to fall to 6.9 per cent in 2025 before dipping further to 5.2 per cent the following year. This deterioration is attributed in part to external pressures, including oil price volatility and elevated global risk sentiment.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recorded a $6.83bn balance of payments surplus in 2024, bolstered by $17.22bn in current and capital inflows and a $13.17bn trade surplus. However, the IMF warns that these gains remain vulnerable.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Other institutions echoed these concerns. PricewaterhouseCoopers has cautioned that a potential mass deportation of Nigerians from the U.S. could sharply cut foreign exchange inflows.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Fitch Ratings, while more optimistic, projects a narrower current account surplus of 3.3 per cent of GDP on average between 2025 and 2026, supported by domestic refining growth and energy reforms.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Despite recent reforms\u2014such as the removal of fuel subsidies, the end of central bank deficit financing, and the unification of exchange rates\u2014the IMF notes these efforts have yet to yield widespread benefits.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u201cGains have yet to benefit all Nigerians, as poverty and food insecurity remain high,\u201d said Axel Schimmelpfennig, head of the IMF\u2019s mission to Nigeria.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>In January 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index, shifting the base year from 2009 to 2024. This led to a recalibration of inflation data, with the rate dropping to 24.48 per cent in January from 34.80 per cent in December 2024. Although the rate declined in February, it climbed again in March\u2014highlighting continued cost-of-living challenges.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>The IMF advised Nigerian authorities to reinvest fiscal savings from subsidy cuts into essential services, growth-driven investments, and expanded cash transfers to support vulnerable households.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u201cAdjustments should protect critical, growth-enhancing investment while accelerating and broadening the delivery of cash transfers,\u201d the report stated.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>The IMF emphasized that sustained implementation of reforms is essential for shielding the economy from further shocks and laying the groundwork for long-term, inclusive growth. The Fund\u2019s final report will be submitted to its Executive Board for approval in the coming weeks.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>This outlook comes just months after President Bola Tinubu pledged to cut inflation from 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent by the end of 2025.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u201cIn 2025, our government is committed to intensifying efforts to lower these costs by boosting food production and promoting local manufacturing of essential drugs and other medical supplies. We are resolute in our ambition to reduce inflation,\u201d Tinubu said in his New Year\u2019s address.<\/div>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Related Posts generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Daniel Adaji Nigeria\u2019s inflation rate is expected to spike to 37 per cent in 2026, a development the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns will significantly hamper economic recovery and reduce&hellip;<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Related Posts generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-117811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - 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