{"id":128743,"date":"2026-08-02T13:41:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-02T12:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=128743"},"modified":"2026-08-02T13:41:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-02T12:41:00","slug":"questioning-the-numbers-nnpcls-n20-64trn-energy-security-bill-fuels-fresh-subsidy-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/questioning-the-numbers-nnpcls-n20-64trn-energy-security-bill-fuels-fresh-subsidy-debate\/","title":{"rendered":"Questioning the Numbers: NNPCL’s N20.64trn Energy Security Bill Fuels Fresh Subsidy Debate"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Lizzy Chirkpi<\/strong><\/h1>\n

More than three years after President Bola Tinubu declared that “fuel subsidy is gone,” a new question is at the centre of Nigeria’s public finance debate: if subsidy has truly ended, why has the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recorded about\u00a0\u20a620.64 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0in Energy Security Expense and related receivables between 2023 and 2025?<\/p>\n

NNPCL’s audited financial statements show that the company recorded\u00a0\u20a64.84 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0as Energy Security Expense in 2023,\u00a0\u20a67.13 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0in 2024, and\u00a0\u20a68.67 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0in 2025 as receivables from the Federation for energy security obligations and its supplier-of-last-resort responsibilities.<\/p>\n

Together, the figures amount to\u00a0\u20a620.64 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0over three years.<\/p>\n

The disclosures have reignited a longstanding debate over whether Nigeria has genuinely exited the fuel subsidy regime or whether some of the associated costs have simply been reclassified under a different accounting heading.<\/p>\n

Although NNPCL insists the expenditure represents statutory obligations under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and has never described it as fuel subsidy, economists, civil society organisations and policy analysts continue to question whether part of the expenditure produces the same economic effect as the former subsidy regime.<\/p>\n

The debate gathered renewed momentum after former Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms.amd now Minister of Fincnaced,\u00a0\u00a0Taiwo Oyedele<\/strong>, acknowledged growing public concern over the fate of savings from the removal of fuel subsidy.<\/p>\n

“There was a question about the subsidy savings. Where has it gone to? I’ve heard this question so many times. And guess what? It’s a valid question.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He added: “So where has the money gone to? And in a few days, you will see the detailed analysis.”<\/p>\n

According to Oyedele, the Federal Government will soon publish a comprehensive breakdown of how savings from the removal of fuel and foreign exchange subsidies have been utilised.<\/p>\n

He said much of the resources had been deployed to debt servicing, implementation of the new national minimum wage, the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), and other government obligations, stressing that the reforms were intended to eliminate economic distortions and corruption rather than merely generate fiscal savings.<\/p>\n

However, while that disclosure may explain how subsidy savings were spent, it may not answer another question attracting increasing public attention:\u00a0Why is NNPCL still recording trillions of naira annually under Energy Security Expense despite the official declaration that fuel subsidy has ended?<\/strong><\/p>\n

That question has become central to a broader national conversation on transparency, accountability and whether the true cost of keeping petrol available nationwide has simply assumed a different accounting identity.<\/p>\n

From Subsidy to Energy Security<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Nigeria’s petrol pricing history illustrates the evolution of government policy.<\/p>\n

At the end of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration in 2015, Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) sold for about\u00a0\u20a687 per litre<\/strong>\u00a0under a fully subsidised regime.<\/p>\n

Following former President Muhammadu Buhari’s assumption of office, the pump price rose to about\u00a0\u20a6145 per litre<\/strong>\u00a0in 2016 under partial deregulation.<\/p>\n

Between 2020 and 2022, petrol prices fluctuated between roughly\u00a0\u20a6162 and \u20a6185 per litre<\/strong>. Although the Federal Government repeatedly maintained that subsidy had been removed, NNPC continued absorbing the gap between the landing cost of petrol and the regulated retail price through what it described as\u00a0under-recovery<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The arrangement meant the company deducted those costs from crude oil revenues before remitting proceeds into the Federation Account.<\/p>\n

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) described the practice as an\u00a0implicit subsidy<\/strong>\u00a0because it reduced government revenues to keep fuel prices artificially low.<\/p>\n

Everything changed on\u00a0May 29, 2023<\/strong>, when President Tinubu declared during his inaugural address:<\/p>\n

“Fuel subsidy is gone.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The announcement triggered an immediate increase in pump prices, which climbed above\u00a0\u20a6500 per litre<\/strong>\u00a0within days.<\/p>\n

Between 2024 and 2026, petrol prices rose further to between approximately\u00a0\u20a6900 and over \u20a61,200 per litre<\/strong>, depending on location, reflecting market pricing and exchange rate pressures.<\/p>\n

The Federal Government argued that ending subsidy would save trillions of naira annually, reduce borrowing, attract investment into domestic refining and free resources for infrastructure and social programmes.<\/p>\n

Yet, even as petrol prices became market-driven, another major expenditure line emerged in NNPCL’s financial statements.<\/p>\n

Instead of reporting under-recovery, the company began recognising substantial amounts as\u00a0Energy Security Expense<\/strong>, citing its statutory obligations under\u00a0Section 64(m) of the Petroleum Industry Act<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

NNPCL says that, as Nigeria’s supplier of last resort, it is required to guarantee nationwide fuel availability. Where government directs the supply of PMS below its landing cost, the resulting obligations are recognised as Energy Security Expense rather than conventional fuel subsidy.<\/p>\n

The company also says the expenditure covers pipeline protection against vandalism and crude oil theft, security contracts safeguarding petroleum infrastructure, logistics for nationwide fuel distribution, emergency supply interventions and other activities necessary to maintain uninterrupted fuel supply.<\/p>\n

However, some analysts argue that where NNPCL absorbs part of the cost of supplying petrol below prevailing market prices, the expenditure may, in economic terms, resemble subsidy regardless of its accounting classification.<\/p>\n

Importantly,\u00a0NNPCL has not publicly stated that Energy Security Expense is the same as fuel subsidy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Experts Raise Transparency Concerns<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics Ltd\/GTE,\u00a0Dele Oye<\/strong>, has argued that obligations accumulated under Energy Security Expense, under-recovery claims and other receivables have effectively shifted the cost of fuel support away from the national budget and onto NNPCL’s balance sheet.<\/p>\n

“Nigeria is currently executing the most expensive subsidy programme in its history, yet almost no one is calling it by its true name.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“A \u20a617.5 trillion liability has been accumulated in the shadows, hidden behind accounting terminologies designed to obscure rather than illuminate.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Buhari’s Under-Recovery vs Tinubu’s Energy Security Expense<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Comparisons between the Buhari and Tinubu administrations have become increasingly inevitable.<\/p>\n

Government records show that under-recovery amounted to approximately\u00a0\u20a6596 billion<\/strong>\u00a0in 2019, while subsidy payments were largely suspended during the COVID-19 oil price collapse in 2020.<\/p>\n

By 2021, subsidy costs had increased to approximately\u00a0\u20a61.43 trillion<\/strong>, rising sharply to about\u00a0\u20a64.39 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0in 2022.<\/p>\n

Between January and May 2023, before President Tinubu assumed office, another\u00a0\u20a61.9 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0was reportedly spent on subsidy.<\/p>\n

Altogether, subsidy and under-recovery during Buhari’s final years totalled roughly\u00a0\u20a68.3 trillion<\/strong>, excluding earlier years.<\/p>\n

By comparison, NNPCL has reported\u00a0\u20a620.64 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0in Energy Security Expense and related receivables between 2023 and 2025.<\/p>\n

While government insists these obligations arise from statutory responsibilities under the Petroleum Industry Act rather than subsidy, critics argue that if the expenditure ultimately offsets the cost of selling petrol below prevailing market prices, the economic effect may be similar irrespective of the accounting label.<\/p>\n

For many observers, the issue is no longer one of terminology but of transparency.<\/p>\n

Key questions remain unanswered: Who benefits from the expenditure? How are the figures calculated? How much relates to infrastructure protection, and how much\u2014if any\u2014supports fuel pricing?<\/p>\n

Without a detailed breakdown from NNPCL, analysts say it is impossible to determine what proportion of the expenditure is attributable to infrastructure security and what proportion may be linked to price-support mechanisms.<\/p>\n

Subsidy Savings Amid Rising Poverty<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The debate has also been shaped by Nigeria’s deteriorating economic conditions.<\/p>\n

While the Federal Government argues that subsidy removal was necessary to restore fiscal sustainability, many Nigerians say they are yet to experience the promised benefits.<\/p>\n

According to World Bank development updates, Nigeria’s poverty rate reportedly rose from\u00a056 per cent in 2023 to about 63 per cent by 2025<\/strong>, representing roughly\u00a0140 million people<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Extreme poverty, measured using the international poverty threshold of\u00a0US$3 per day<\/strong>, reportedly increased from\u00a047.7 per cent in 2024 to about 50.9 per cent in 2025<\/strong>, pushing an estimated\u00a010 million additional Nigerians<\/strong>\u00a0into extreme poverty.<\/p>\n

The figures have intensified demands for greater accountability over how subsidy savings have been utilised.<\/p>\n

While Oyedele has promised a comprehensive explanation, many observers believe the disclosure should also clarify whether Energy Security Expense forms part of those expenditures or represents a separate statutory obligation.<\/p>\n

Executive Director of Policy Alert,\u00a0Tijah Bolton-Akpan<\/strong>, told\u00a0Pointblanknews.com<\/em>\u00a0that the issue goes far beyond accounting terminology.<\/p>\n

“The real issue here goes beyond an entry tagged ‘Energy Security Expense’ on NNPCL’s books. It is about transparency. NNPCL is an EITI-supporting company with clear public disclosure obligations. Without a detailed public breakdown, it is impossible to determine whether these are legitimate expenditures for protecting pipelines and other critical infrastructure or whether they represent an invisible subsidy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“If any part of the so-called Energy Security Expense is spent to keep fuel prices below market levels, then it becomes an indirect subsidy. Every expense line should be transparently disclosed, independently audited and subjected to legislative and public oversight.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bolton-Akpan added that while Policy Alert had consistently argued that Nigeria’s fuel subsidy regime was fiscally unsustainable and vulnerable to corruption, the Tinubu administration implemented the reforms without sufficient transparency, planning or social safeguards.<\/p>\n

“The savings expected from the reform have not been clearly accounted for, while millions of Nigerians continue to bear the burden of higher transport, food and energy costs without effective measures to cushion the impact.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He said the debate should not be reduced to whether the word “subsidy” appears in NNPCL’s financial statements.<\/p>\n

“Whether Nigeria has truly exited the subsidy regime is not simply a question of the subsidy line disappearing from NNPCL’s books. It is about whether government is transparent about the true costs of fuel pricing and whether hidden or indirect subsidies still exist. Until NNPCL fully discloses the composition of this so-called Energy Security Expense, the question of whether fuel subsidy has truly ended will remain.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Unanswered Question<\/strong><\/h2>\n

There is currently\u00a0no conclusive public evidence<\/strong>\u00a0that NNPCL’s Energy Security Expense is simply fuel subsidy under another name.<\/p>\n

Equally, there is\u00a0insufficient public disclosure<\/strong>\u00a0to conclusively dismiss that possibility.<\/p>\n

What is beyond dispute is that the figures run into trillions of naira and that NNPCL, by law, serves as Nigeria’s supplier of last resort.<\/p>\n

As the Federal Government prepares to publish its long-awaited breakdown of subsidy savings, public attention is likely to shift beyond where the money went to a more fundamental question:\u00a0Can the government reconcile the continued appearance of trillions of naira in Energy Security Expense with its repeated assertion that fuel subsidy has ended?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Until those questions are comprehensively answered, the debate is unlikely to revolve around accounting terminology alone. Instead, it will continue to centre on\u00a0transparency, accountability and whether Nigeria has truly completed the transition from fuel subsidy to a fully market-driven downstream petroleum sector.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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