Nigeria\u2019s yesterday\u2019s men live in comfortable irrelevance, today\u2019s men in comfortable relevance and tomorrow\u2019s men in uncomfortable irrelevance\u2026<\/i>Ena E. Orugbo<\/p>\n
Introduction<\/b><\/p>\n
The Abachites thought Abacha was indispensable so adopted linear thinking, the Objites believed Obansanjo was incomparable thus sold him a dummy and the Yar\u2019adites knew Yar\u2019adua was incurable hence suppressed the truth. It is therefore pertinent to ask, what are the Gejites thinking, believing and knowing? Jonathan 2015, Jonathan is unbeatable and Jonathan must run. In view of the foregoing, there is need to peruse yesterday\u2019s men, today\u2019s men and tomorrow\u2019s men to connect the dots, depict patterns\/blocs and validate postulations. This piece however focuses on the period 1985 to 2015, key political events and personalities that were, are and would be relevant in Nigeria for evenness and robustness of findings.<\/p>\n
Yesterday\u2019s Men<\/b><\/p>\n
MKO was the symbol of elegance, financial success and mind blowing philanthropy. He was also a darling of previous and incumbent Governments at the time, recipient of over 250 traditional titles and focus of several weighty allegations such as the bible sinking and ITT scandals. Armed with undeniable accomplishments and propelled by his military, national and international goodwill, MKO decided to enlist for the 1993 Presidential race (Marathon) to Aso Villa. The end result of his decision to enlist in the 1993 Marathon is well known and points that goodwill is sufficient to enlist and win a race but not enough to collect the prize. A lack of an explicit contingency plan made MKO\u2019s post annulment efforts disparate, fruitless and trusting.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Today\u2019s Men<\/b><\/p>\n
The rerun of the annulled 1993 Marathon to Aso Villa was deferred to 1999 and as a contingency plan OBJ was enlisted into the race. He won the 1999 race, collected the prize (certificate of return) and repeated the same feat in the 2003 Marathon. Propelled by the sheerings from Objites, OBJ tried to enlist himself in the 2007 Marathon but failed because you can\u2019t take a wrong route to the right destination. Reeling from the defeat of the third term dream, OBJ abruptly enlisted Yar\u2019adua into the 2007 race. Yar\u2019adua won the race and collected the prize but was later handed to Jonathan at his demise despite orchestrated dribbling from Yar\u2019adites. Since life abhors a vacuum, Gejites are now here, active and have become increasingly influential.<\/p>\n
Tomorrow\u2019s Men<\/b><\/p>\n
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Figure 1: Statistics of influence levels for Nigeria\u2019s political blocs <\/i><\/p>\n
Figure 1 above shows the statistics of influence levels for different power blocs in Nigeria. The graph shows that the rate of loss in relevance of power blocs in Nigeria is directly proportional to the length of absence of their benefactors from Aso Villa. For example, Objites have lost about 50% of their influence in the Nigerian polity between 2007 and 2011. This can be attributed to the prevalent lack of ideology and presence of sycophancy in Nigeria\u2019s power blocs. However, new blocs such as Saharites are emerging and evolving on the tide of new media. Though recent events like the \u2018Sanusi airport show\u2019 points that promoters of Saharites are Apcites and not Nigerites (tomorrow men) as they have posed, posterity will judge.<\/p>\n
Conclusion<\/b><\/p>\n
This piece has perused Nigeria\u2019s power blocs across yesterday\u2019s men, today\u2019s men and tomorrow\u2019s men. MKO was discussed alone in yesterday\u2019s men because he represents the system or power bloc of that era. However analysis of yesterday\u2019s men shows that MKO made two tactical errors, trusted men with uncertain antecedents and lacked a well thought out contingency plan that envisaged the annulment of the 1993 Presidential race, marathon. These costly mistakes were replicated by OBJ while in office when he bought the dummy that the third term dream was unbeatable or the dream of an incumbent cannot be defeated. This singular decision eroded the OBJ\u2019s brand value and his most cherished statesmanship.<\/p>\n
In the same vein, Yar\u2019adites had dribbled and lied to Nigerians so much that they then began to believe their own lies. Yar\u2019adites amazingly believed the lies that they could force or frustrate Jonathan to resign his birth right, maintain the status quo or instigate a military takeover. So what\u2019s now trending? Gejites have adopted line thinking like Abachites, bought a dummy like Objites that an incumbent cannot be defeated, lied like Yar\u2019adites that Jonathan\u2019s Government is at its peak and assumed like Abiola that goodwill is sufficient. Gejites like the Abachites, Obijites and Yar\u2019adites have three key objectives. Substantiate their sugar and lead coated loyalty to Jonathan, consolidate their relevance\/maintain status quo and erode Jonathan\u2019s brand.<\/p>\n
Lastly, if Abacha, Abiola, Yar\u2019adua and Obansanjo were to advise Jonathan concerning his likely decision to enlist for the proposed Marathon to Aso Villa in 2015, what do you think they would say? Fortunately Obasanjo is still active, here and has already voluntarily spoken though the channel, intent and timing is questionable. The \u2018decision\u2019 to enlist in the proposed 2015 Presidential race is entirely Jonathan\u2019s but it is pertinent to state for posterity that the \u2018final decision\u2019 to seal victory (collection of the prize) is entirely GOD\u2019s. Ecclesiastes 9:11<\/i> says the race is not to the swift nor battle to the strong but time and chance happen to them all and 1 Corinthians 3:6<\/i> says, I have planted Apollos watered; but GOD gave increase.<\/p>\n
Dr Ena E. Orugbo<\/b> is a Forensic Decision Analyst\/Public Infrastructure Expert<\/p>\n