Brookings, the World\u2019s most influential think-tank based in the United<\/p>\n
States, have projected a President Jonathan victory over the opposition
\ncandidate\u2019s General Buhari in the 2015 Elections which it suggests would
\nbe keenly contested.<\/p>\n
The analysis, context and rationale of the think-tank\u2019s projections is
\ncontained in the Brookings publication titled: Foresight Africa \u2013 Top
\nPriorities for the continent (January 2015).<\/p>\n
\u201cThough the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still
\nfavor President Jonathan.\u2019<\/p>\n
According to Brookings, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a fragile
\nanti-jonathan establishment with a sole purpose to return power to the
\nnorth.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its quest
\nto wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power \u201creturned\u201d to the
\nnorth\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe APC gets much of its strength from tap- ping into anti-Jonathan
\nsentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel
\nthat the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political
\nappointments.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Report also indicated that the APC\u2019s strategy is hinged on a
\ncombination of popular votes from the North West, North East and \u201cthe
\nbattleground SouthWest\u201d but also hinted at the possibility of Bola Ahmed
\nTinubu not delivering the region contrary to speculations.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubu\u2014a former
\ngovernor of Lagos State who played a pivotal role in the formation of the
\nAPC and is considered to be the party\u2019s strongest mobi- lizer in the
\nsouthwest\u2014will be very enthusias- tic in delivering the battleground
\nsouthwest to the APC during the elections.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cTinubu indicated his interest in being the party\u2019s vice presidential
\ncandidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the party\u2019s strategists felt
\nthat a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement the PDP\u2019s
\nlabeling of the APC as an Islamic party.\u201d<\/p>\n
On President Jonathan\u2019s performance: \u201cdespite Boko Haram\u2014the country is
\nthriving: The economy continues to grow and\u2014with the re- basing of its
\nGDP\u2014became the largest econo- my in Africa and the 26th largest in the
\nworld. Jonathan\u2019s supporters also point to his success in containing the
\nEbola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and
\ninstitutions around the world.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Brookings Report also identified factors such as incumbency and
\nnumerical control of States where PDP has 21 States and APC only 14 as
\ngiving PDP an edge.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its \u201cpower of incumbency,\u201d and
\nall the institutional support that goes with it. Not only does it have
\nfederal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key institutions\u201d<\/p>\n
The report advised that all efforts should be deployed to ensure a free,
\nfair and transparent elections and to avoid a meltdown as post-election
\nviolence seems very likely.<\/p>\n
\u201cPost-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the APC loses
\nwhile renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan
\ndoes.\u201d the report noted.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brookings, the World\u2019s most influential think-tank based in the United States, have projected a President Jonathan victory over the opposition candidate\u2019s General Buhari in the 2015 Elections which it suggests…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25705,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-exclusive"],"yoast_head":"\n