By Nnamdi Anekwe-Chive<\/p>\n
In 2011, I took to the social media to express my grave reservation about
\nvoting then acting president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. Owing to our fault
\nlines, I looked at the security and stability of Nigeria, in canvassing
\nfor Nigerians to vote General Buhari, in order to continue with the
\nnorthern term, and to spare the country the oncoming national security
\ninstability, that would manifest from the threats emanating from the
\nnorth.<\/p>\n
Nigerians often ignore the dangerous precedents of the past, and fail to
\nrecognize that all murmurings and clamour for change or political power is
\nnot rooted in such desire. It is usually a quest to wrest power from
\nanother group. Power is not concentrated in the hands of the Nigerian
\npeople because the constitution is not owned by them, rather competing
\nregional elites and interests hide under various banner to access power,
\nand when it\u2019s achieved, amass wealth to the detriment of the people.<\/p>\n
I will like to paraphrase Karl Marx here, the history of all hitherto
\nexisting power struggle in Nigeria is that of geo-political power struggle
\nor that of predatory geo-political elite\u2019s power struggle. Some northern
\nelites went on record to threaten to make Nigeria ungovernable if Jonathan
\nwins in 2011. Whether Boko Haram were used to achieve that threat is not
\nclear, but what is clear is that the southern elites remain convinced that
\nthe northern elites used Boko Haram to undermine the Jonathan\u2019s government
\nand overshadowed whatever he has managed to achieve. Even late General
\nAzazi, former NSA, attributed the heightened Boko Haram insurgency to the
\nfall out of PDP\u2019s fractious power struggle, and the fact many of the
\nnorthern members never wanted Jonathan to run.<\/p>\n
Going by the threats coming from the Niger Delta in the event of a
\nJonathan loss at the poll, we can understand where we might be heading
\nwith a Buhari presidency.The intelligence estimates suggest Nigeria will
\nend up with two insurgencies (Reinvigorated Niger Delta insurgency and
\nBoko Haram insurgency) in the event of a Buhari presidency.<\/p>\n
A friend of mine, an APC stalwart, posited that it\u2019s not tenable to
\nconcede that the state is powerless to contain two wars, both ongoing and
\npotential, and averred that the preference to vote Jonathan to avoid a war
\nis at best defeatist. However, a Ph.d candidate of political science at
\nthe University of Lagos, contended that the question is not whether a
\nstate can contain wars but whether a weak state like Nigeria can contain
\ntwo different wars at the same time, and again, whether it can do so
\nsuccessfully bearing in mind that the past military regimes and
\ngovernments could not contain the militancy in the Niger Delta for more
\nthan two decades until the amnesty, and the Boko Haram\u2019s insurgency is a
\ndecade old.<\/p>\n
Therefore, my support for President Jonathan is on principle, in the
\ninterest of national security. But could we have avoided this North\/South
\ntension that has brought us to 2011 scenario if the APC had zoned the
\npresidential ticket to the South? Or maybe the PDP should have asked a
\nsitting President to forego a 2nd term and choose a northern presidential
\ncandidate?<\/p>\n
Indeed, the Nigerian people may be truly dissatisfied with the current
\nruling party and desired a change, but at what cost? The Nigerian state is
\na mere pretention, and does not have the capacity to wage two wars and
\nassuage the feelings of the marginalized poor who are often used as cannon
\nfodder. More so, the geo-political elites have not empowered the state to
\nbecome stronger, they have appropriated the authority of the state and
\nused same to subjugate the Nigerian people to their whims and caprices.<\/p>\n
In any case, President Jonathan has done creditably well in infrastructure
\ndevelopment, aviation, roads and transport, power sector reforms,
\nagriculture and petroleum sector reforms, except for the government\u2019s
\nneeded drive to tackle corruption and also an initial flawed military
\nstrategy in tackling the Boko Haram insurgency. A second term would
\naddress flaws in the fight against corruption and also with the recent
\nmassive military acquisitions, and ongoing tactical offensive against Boko
\nHaram terrorists, the government is on a renewed path.<\/p>\n
President Obama was caught on the microphone telling president Medvedev in
\nearly 2012 at a summit in Munich that he would need flexibility to
\nnegotiate missile defense in Europe and other strategic issues in his 2nd
\nterm, thereby underscoring the free hand a president needs to tackle some
\nspecific challenges in government. Also, President Obasanjo\u2019s 1st term was
\na colossal failure, but got to achieve some milestone in his 2nd term
\nalbeit on corruption and macroeconomics, record on infrastructure was near
\nzero.<\/p>\n
My conviction to vote President Jonathan is borne out of two unhappy
\nchoices and the consequences that comes with those choices, and is also
\npremised on security and national interest, with hope for reforms in the
\nconstitution that would allow for fiscal federalism and geo-political
\npower rotation. That way we can we can stop going to war each time
\nelection approaches.<\/p>\n
Prof Wole Soyinka talked about two problematic candidates, and asked how
\nthey intend to repay those who are dolling out billions to the campaigns?
\nWhat is given in a Buhari presidency is hinged on his personal integrity
\nbut what is not a given are the characters and personalities that surround
\nthe 72 year old General, those with questionable sources of funds who
\nbankroll his campaign, those he would hand over the economic affairs to
\nmanage, those that allegedly collect 10% of earned revenues of Lagos state
\ngovernment, those with EFCC cases hanging on their necks, those with
\nN21Billion fraud case at the Special Fraud Unit, those that tell us CHANGE
\nis coming, even when fraud is masquerading as CHANGE.<\/p>\n
The next phase of Niger Delta insurgency may be hinged on unassailable
\ndemand for fiscal federalism, and I doubt if a Buhari presidency can
\naccede to such request knowing that most of the constituent units that
\nmake up the Nigerian federation will never agree to such, and that would
\nleave him with two debilitating wars that the defective Nigerian state may
\nnot be able to counter successfully, and we may end up with another
\narrested presidency for four years.<\/p>\n
Nnamdi Anekwe-Chive is a National security Analyst. He can be reached on
\nTwitter @nnamdianekwe<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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