{"id":36757,"date":"2015-03-16T03:49:31","date_gmt":"2015-03-16T02:49:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=36757"},"modified":"2015-03-16T03:49:31","modified_gmt":"2015-03-16T02:49:31","slug":"eurasia-group-predicts-buharis-victory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/eurasia-group-predicts-buharis-victory\/","title":{"rendered":"Eurasia Group predicts Buhari&#8217;s victory"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"mailview-right\" class=\"offset uibox\">\n<div id=\"messagecontent\">\n<div class=\"leftcol\">\n<div id=\"messagebody\">\n<div class=\"message-htmlpart\">\n<div class=\"rcmBody\">\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">A global political research organisation , the Eurasia Group has predicted that the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen Mohammadu Buhari may win \u00a0the March 28 election.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">This came few weeks after the highly respected think tank group, Brookings\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Institute<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u00a0in the United States predicted victory for President Goodluck Jonathan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">Africa practice head and Analyst Philippe de Pontet noted on Saturday that the electoral map did not favour the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">According to him \u201cThe election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign.<\/p>\n<p><a style=\"color: #cd1713;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.africanexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/buhari2.jpg\" data-rel=\"penci-gallery-image-content\"  target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.africanexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/buhari2-300x177.jpg\" alt=\"Gen. Mohammadu Buhari (rtd)\" width=\"300\" height=\"177\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">\u201cChief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">\u201cNew permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide \u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">\u201cWhile we expected the electoral map to favour Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily-populated southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">\u201cA local think tank, the Centre for Public Policy Alternatives, gave Buhari a 58% to 32% lead in Lagos State, where Jonathan won the last election. Eurasia Group thinks Jonathan\u2019s approval rating is below the 40% threshold under which incumbents have a hard time getting reelected.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">\u201cDespite some important military gains against [the Islamic terror group] Boko Haram in the northeast, and a partial exoneration of its oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, [Jonathan\u2019s] Peoples Democratic Party is starting to look desperate. \u2026 [But] it is not clear \u2026 that Buhari has a strong economic policy orientation. This uncertainty is a chief risk for investors.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">\u201cJonathan is likely to contest an unfavorable outcome, especially a close election, and that could mean protracted violence.<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe reason we aren\u2019t upgrading Nigeria\u2019s outlook to positive, however, rests in the potential for an oil disruption and the likely pushback to Buhari\u2019s policy agenda in a highly polarized political climate. His victory is likely to unleash a resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta (Jonathan\u2019s home region) that targets the oil sector. Former Delta militants have threatened to blow up oil pipelines, platforms, and personnel as in the past when they routinely took up to 500,000 barrels per day offline. There is likely some bluster in their threats \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #000000; text-align: justify;\">Eurasia Group is the world\u2019s leading global political risk research and consulting firm providing information and insight on how political developments move markets and help clients anticipate and respond to instability and opportunities everywhere they do business.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"message\" class=\"statusbar\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Related Posts generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A global political research organisation , the Eurasia Group has predicted that the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen Mohammadu Buhari may win \u00a0the March 28 election. This&hellip;<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Related Posts generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35564,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-exclusive"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Eurasia Group predicts Buhari&#039;s victory - Pointblank News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/eurasia-group-predicts-buharis-victory\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Eurasia Group predicts Buhari&#039;s victory - Pointblank News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A global political research organisation , the Eurasia Group has predicted that the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen Mohammadu Buhari may win \u00a0the March 28 election. 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