A few months had gone by since that fateful day of 28th March, 2015. The<\/p>\n
president has been sworn in and the celebrations were loud and boisterous,
\nbut nowhere more so than in some palatial mansion in Abuja where Rotimi
\nAmaechi is smugly ensconced as he contentedly savours his mess of porridge
\nas the new Minister of Petroleum Resources.<\/p>\n
But in the Niger Delta there had been no celebration, only gloom and
\ndarkness. On some evening, seated by their homesteads, almost in unison
\nthey turn forlorn eyes towards Otuoke where only a few months ago they had
\nespied the reassuring star of Otuoke shining ever so brilliantly, casting
\nits audacious beams all across the Niger Delta, like a beacon of hope. And
\nconfirm it to themselves for the umpteenth time that the star had indeed
\nbeen dimmed. Taking a cursory glance around their uninspiring environments
\nthey would notice the mouldy nets long since abandoned when they could no
\nlonger bring home any fish on account of the polluted waters; next they
\nwould notice the rusty farming implements long abandoned when the soil
\nceased to yield her increase, and would reach the seemingly inevitable
\nconclusion: the nation state of Nigeria had dealt them a rotten one.
\nSuddenly overcome by a strange feeling of claustrophobia, as though being
\nphysically constricted by their circumstances, they suddenly blurt out as
\none: “We want out!” Not merely out of their dinghy rooms, not even merely
\nout of their hopeless circumstances, but out of the country that imposed
\nsuch unfavourable terms upon their lives. They had stoically borne the
\nburden for the economic wellbeing of the country like beasts of burden,
\nbut now they wanted out. They wanted a Niger Delta Republic with or
\nwithout the South East (depending on the vote), and with or without some
\nMiddle Belt states(again depending on the vote) . Or that, at the very
\nminimum, they wanted absolute ownership and control over their resources
\nand destinies.<\/p>\n
At first the request would sound like the wishful musings of beggars and
\nbe duly ignored. But the request would become more strident and urgent
\nand, soon enough, the ex-militants would regroup and Nigeria would be back
\nin the pre-amnesty era. It is pertinent to note that once the Niger Delta
\nbegin to insist on resource control – and they shall – the GMB government
\nhas failed whatever course of action he adopts. Survival will be at issue
\n– survival of GMB’s government on the one hand and survival of the nation
\nas one united entity. Governance will suffer. It would be a loose-loose
\nsituation all round. Sound reason and circumspection would counsel
\nnegotiation. So supposing for a fleeting moment that GMB opts to
\nnegotiate, banking on the Niger Deltans’ traditional magnanimity for them
\nnot to insist on 100%, perhaps even accept not more than 50%. Even then
\nthat would leave much less than usually available to a nation long
\naccustomed to feeding fat on unearned wealth. The country would suddenly
\nbecome too big for the federal government and the states too wide for the
\nstate governments. The public service at the state and federal levels
\nwould be trimmed by half or worse and infrastructure and other aspects of
\nthe economy would languish. GMB’s government would flounder.<\/p>\n
But in all probability GMB, brandishing his medals as the Maitatsine
\nconqueror, would opt for military action and direct the Navy, the Airforce
\nand the Army to “crush” the militancy. The war would escalate, lives would
\nbe lost on both sides, particularly militants’, and with each militant’s
\nlife lost the burden of collective guilt upon the nation would mount as
\nthe Niger Deltans would be fighting a just war, a war of
\nself-determination. And with every life lost on the side of the militants
\nthe door of negotiation would be sealed tighter. Foreign powers may weigh
\nin, perhaps, with a view to aid the fulfillment of their doomsday prophecy
\nabout the country in 2015. Crude oil – that lifeblood of the nation’s
\neconomy – would cease to flow; public schools – universities, secondary
\nand primary – at both the state and federal levels would be shut; the
\npower stations would shut down on account of lack of gas; there would be
\nno fuel or kerosene anywhere in the country, not even in the Niger Delta
\nas the illegal refineries would not find the crude oil to steal; the
\nfilling stations would shut down; the airports would be shut; all public
\ninstitutions would be shut; Nigeria would grind to a halt; the government
\nwould be hard-pressed to find the resources to fund the war. Worse still,
\nthe war would spill onto the hinterland. Every expatriate would become
\nprime target for kidnapping or outright elimination and every
\nSouthwesterner and northerner (including the middle-beltans even though
\nmany of them might have actually supported GEJ’s reelection bid) would
\nbecome persona non grata in the South South. The Hausa-Fulani Muslim north
\nwould respond in kind and turn it into an ethno-religious war
\nindiscriminately exterminating or expelling all southerners, the Yoruba
\ninclusive, as well as the Middle-beltans irrespective of religion. Nigeria
\nwould become a failed state. By then a resurrected and resuscitated Boko
\nHaram, now completely left unattended, would gleefully join in the killing
\nspree, thereafter go harvesting territory after territory in the north,
\nthen sweep southward like locusts, leaving nothing but wasteland in their
\nwake, perhaps with the tacit or explicit collaboration of GMB (and even
\nsome Middle Eastern States) who would now find a dual purpose for the
\ninsurgents; firstly to help fulfil his forebear’s failed desire to dip the
\nKoran in the ocean as well as fulfil his own soul’s avowed desire to see a
\nNigeria run by strict shariah law and, second, to provide free extra fire
\npower to tame the militants and assume complete ownership of their oil and
\nwith the wealth launch an Islamic jihad on the rest of West Africa.
\nNigeria would have long become ancient history\u2026
\nFinal Word
\nOn March 28th, 2015, when you go to cast your vote for president, think
\nabout Nigeria’s progress; think about justice and think about Nigeria’s
\nunity. Nigeria survived GMB once; we may not survive him a second time. We
\nhave a good thing going with this entity called Nigeria; Here is a country
\nwith real potentials to challenge for a spot among the top five economies
\nof the world in about twenty years or less. Let not greed and politics
\nspoil it.
\nGood luck.
\n(Richard Dominic wrote from Jos. e-mail: richardominic@gmail.com)<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
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