I have heard and I have read, many people say that the government of
\nPresident Muhammadu Buhari does not have an economic direction. That this
\nis the reason why things are getting bad in the country. My submission is
\nthat people who share this opinion have either refused to tell themselves
\nthe truth or they live elsewhere outside this world. However, I have
\ndecided to pen this piece to let them know that not only does the Buhari
\ngovernment have an economic direction, it is also one that looks very
\npromising.<\/p>\n
In the last few months, particularly since President Buhari took over the
\nmantle of leadership, things have really taken a nose dive. The hunger in
\nthe land is increasing, the unemployment rate is worsening and the poor
\nare getting poorer. Was this unexpected? The answer is a clear no. What we
\nare witnessing today is not a factor of a Buhari government. I posit that
\nNigeria would still have been witnessing the same thing or even worse if
\nJonathan were to be the president today and I will tell you why.<\/p>\n
Except for the first quarter of 2015 when the price of crude under the
\nJonathan regime sold for $58.7 per barrel on the average, Nigeria\u2019s crude
\nsold for as high as $150. In 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, Nigeria\u2019s crude
\nwas sold for a yearly average of $113.8, $113.5 $111.0 and $100.4 per
\nbarrels respectively. Within the same period, our foreign reserves rose
\nand fell from $32,639.8bn $43,830.4bn $42,847.3bn and $34,250bn
\nrespectively, before it finally crashed to $29,595.28bn in the first
\nquarter of2 015, while the country\u2019s GDP rose from $409.34bn in 2011 to
\n$561.61bn in 2014. (Source: RTC Advisory Services Ltd, Nigeria Retrospect
\n\u2013 Economy and Policy, 1999-2015).<\/p>\n
Looking at the above figures, the believe was that Nigeria\u2019s economy was
\non a good footing, but this is not exactly so. Why the growth figures are
\ngood, the successes recorded are largely uncoordinated, especially because
\nthe structure and quality of growth were not considered. This is why the
\nUNDP Human Development Report, 1996 stated that \u201cunless governments take
\ntimely corrective action, economic growth can become lopsided and flawed.
\nDetermined efforts are needed to avoid growth that is jobless, ruthless,
\nvoiceless, rootless and futureless.\u201d Take unemployment for example,
\ndespite the huge revenue from oil between 2011 and 2014, the unemployment
\nrate never really dropped. In 2013, its was 24.7% and in 2014, it stood at
\n24.3%. Even in 2012 when the yearly average of oil earning was $113,
\nunemployment rate stood at 27.4%.
\nThe question then is why are most Nigerians poor despite rising revenues
\nand GDP growth?\u00a0 The answers are not far-fetched. Firstly, oil which is
\nNigeria\u2019s main revenue does not by itself, create many jobs. Jobs created
\nfrom oil are only a few compared to the revenue it generates. Secondly, is
\nthe issue of corruption and lack of transparency that was pervasive in the
\nlast government. Over the last four years, there have been several
\nalarming and scandalous cases of corruption in Nigeria. From the $6bn Fuel
\nSubsidy Scam to the missing $20billion NNPC scam and the 300,000-400,000
\nbarrels of oil per day that was stolen from the country amongst many
\nothers. And juxtaposing this with the fact the infrastructural problem of
\nthe country especially in areas of roads and transportation; power;
\nInformation technology continue to suffer neglect despite huge revenue, it
\nwill be a mirage to think that Nigeria can be repositioned for success.<\/p>\n
One other thing responsible for the poor state of affairs in the country
\nis the fact that the poor population of 110 million Nigerians lack access
\nto healthcare, education and other social welfare programmes due to low
\nspending on these sectors by the last government.<\/p>\n
So what is the way forward? What is the Buhari government doing
\ndifferently? Since coming into power, President Buhari has put in place
\nmeasures specifically to shore up the revenue of government because no
\nmatter how lofty your plans are, you can only implement those plans where
\nthere is money. This is why the president has ensured transparency in the
\noil and gas sector with the appointment of Dr Ibe Kachiku as the GMD of
\nNNPC who in turn has taken measures to reform the sector and block
\nleakages in oil revenue. The president also appointed Babatunde Fowler,
\nthe man who turned around the revenue of Lagos state to head the Federal
\nInland Revenue (FIRS) and Hameed Ali into the Nigeria Custom Service
\n(NCS). With the reforms and re-organisation going on in these two agencies
\nof government, the plan is to ensure that revenue earned from both
\nsurpasses the revenue generated from oil.<\/p>\n
The directive that all Ministries, Departments and Agencies of the Federal
\nGovernment register for the Treasury Single Account domiciled with the
\nCentral Bank of Nigeria is also another measure to shore up government
\nrevenue. At least N1.4tn had so far been paid into the TSA to date, an
\namount that would have been available to looters to feast on in previous
\nadministration.<\/p>\n
In addition, the government is also pursuing an anti-corruption agenda to
\nprosecute and bring to justice, those who turned the country\u2019s resources
\ninto their private pockets. Though, nobody has been convicted so far, but
\nsome perpetrators have been taken to court and some amount of money
\nrecovered. I believe details on this will be made available soon.<\/p>\n
Away from shoring up revenue, government has also put in place measures to
\ninvest in the people (social sector investment).To achieve this therefore,
\nthe government has outlined an objective of stimulating and supporting the
\nestablishment of world class skill acquisition centres in all 109
\nSenatorial Districts of the Federation. The government has also made a
\ncommitment to provide one meal a day for all primary school students which
\nwill create 1.14million jobs in agriculture, with a multiplier effect in
\nincreased food production and attract investment.
\nBoosting rural economy, lifting millions out of poverty through a
\nconditional fund transfer to 25 million poorest households to incentivize
\nvaccination, education and production is also at the heart of the
\ngovernment. The government is also set to diversify the economy by
\ninvesting in the areas of Agriculture, Manufacturing, Entertainment\u00a0 and
\nTechnology as well as boosting education and\u00a0 building capacity to improve
\nteacher quality with the expectation of having an educated population to
\nincrease economic potential for productivity.<\/p>\n
All these are important because according to the IMF: \u201cSpecifically, if
\nthe income share of the top 20 percent (the rich) increases, then GDP
\ngrowth actually declines over the medium term, suggesting that the
\nbenefits do not trickle down. In contrast, an increase in the income share
\nof the bottom 20 percent (the poor) is associated with higher GDP growth.
\nThe poor and the middle class matter the most for growth via a number of
\ninterrelated economic, social, and political channels.\u201d<\/p>\n
With the efforts at shoring up revenue as I earlier outlined, the
\ngovernment will have the resources to implement these programmes, the
\nresultant effect of which would be more jobs for Nigerians, an educated
\nand healthy population, a repositioned economy built on structures and
\nquality of growth and a population lifted out of poverty. If this is not
\nan economic direction, I wonder what is.<\/p>\n
Abubakar Usman is a member of the Buhari Media Support Group. He can be
\nengaged on twitter @MrAbuSidiq<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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