{"id":47660,"date":"2016-03-18T11:51:21","date_gmt":"2016-03-18T10:51:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=47660"},"modified":"2016-03-18T11:51:21","modified_gmt":"2016-03-18T10:51:21","slug":"president-trump-big-threat-jihadi-terror-global-economy-economist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/president-trump-big-threat-jihadi-terror-global-economy-economist\/","title":{"rendered":"President Trump’ as big a threat as jihadi terror to global economy – Economist"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

The prospect of Donald Trump winning the race to the White House has joined China\u2019s slowing economy, the Greek debt crisis and Britain\u2019s EU referendum as a major threat to the global economy, according to a respected risk analysis firm.<\/p>\n

The Economist Intelligence Unit said the Republican frontrunner could prove a dangerous world leader, damaging global trade, stirring up trouble with Beijing and adding to instability in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

The EIU placed the possibility of Trump being sworn in as US president next January sixth on their latest list of global threats, as serious as a resurgence of jihadi terrorism, and only marginally less risky than the collapse of the eurozone.<\/p>\n

\nThe US property tycoon had been \u201cexceptionally hostile towards free trade\u201d during his campaign, and had advocated putting troops on the ground in Syria to fight Islamic State, the unit said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war \u2013 and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016.\u201d<\/p>\n

It added: \u201cHis militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East [and ban on all Muslim travel to the US] would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump is currently the favourite to win the Republican nomination, having stormed to success in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

His bombastic campaign has both captivated and horrified many in America and beyond. In January, British MPs debated a petition to have him banned from the UK after he called for a \u201ctotal and complete shutdown\u201d on Muslims entering the US.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, China\u2019s party-controlled Global Times said the billionaire could herald a rising trend of protectionism and isolationism in the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe rise of a racist in the US political area worries the whole world,\u201d the newspaper said.<\/p>\n

According to the EIU, there was \u201ca moderate probability\u201d of Trump winning November\u2019s presidential election, and serious conflict in Washington if he succeeded.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress \u2013 albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.\u201d<\/p>\n

A hard landing for the Chinese economy remains the biggest threat to the world economy, according to the EIU.<\/p>\n

It said China\u2019s manufacturing and service sectors were continuing to deteriorate, hampering the government\u2019s efforts to tackle bad debts that had built up since the financial crisis. Recent plunges on the Shanghai stock market \u2013 down 17% so far this year \u2013 have undermined confidence in Beijing\u2019s ability to manage the crisis.<\/p>\n

If China\u2019s economy slowed by more than currently expected, the EIU said it would have a \u201chugely detrimental impact\u201d on emerging markets in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, as well as a \u201csevere knock-on effect\u201d on Europe and the US.<\/p>\n

There is also a \u201crising threat\u201d of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy, the report said, citing recent attacks in Paris, Lebanon, Turkey, and Indonesia, and the downing of a Russian airliner over Egypt.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe spread of IS [Isis] and its influence poses a dilemma for global policymakers, who are under pressure to intervene militarily to suppress the group in its strongholds in the Middle East [especially now that hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees are seeking sanctuary in Europe], but which in turn would risk reprisals in their home countries by radicalised IS sympathisers.\u201d<\/p>\n

The long-term stability of the eurozone was also in doubt, according to the report. It said Greece\u2019s future within the eurozone remained at risk if Athens failed to comply with the terms of its latest bailout. And if Greece left, other countries could follow, creating financial turmoil.<\/p>\n

\u201cCountries leaving the eurozone under duress would suffer large devaluations and be unable to service euro-denominated debts. In turn, banks would suffer huge losses in their sovereign bond portfolios, resulting in major disruption to the global financial system and plunging the world economy into recession,\u201d the EIU said.<\/p>\n

Talks between Greece and its creditors have been bogged down for months, delaying long-awaited negotiations on debt relief.<\/p>\n

And Brexit, like Grexit, is another potential risk. The EIU said there was a low probability that Britain would vote to leave the EU in June, but there would be a high impact if it happened.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Britain did leave the EU it would have negative ramifications for the UK \u2013 still the fifth biggest economy in the world, and whose exporters would struggle in the face of regulatory and tariff uncertainty, and whose position as a leading global financial services hub would be imperilled.\u201d<\/p>\n

The EU would also suffer, given the UK is one of its fastest-growing members and a supporter of \u201ctrade and services liberalisation\u201d, said the EIU. A British exit could also \u201cexacerbate the ongoing global currency instability, notably in the west\u201d.<\/p>\n

Latest opinion polls have shown that the remain and leave campaigns are neck-and-neck, although Britain is odds-on to remain in the EU with the bookmakers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/h2>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
jenny downing<\/span> on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\n