BY OLISA AKUKWE
\nolisaemekaakukwe@yahoo.com
\nTwitter: @FrankOlisa
\nI remember the campaigns of 1983. I was in primary school, but my
\nfascination with politics and leadership was already well and alive. It
\nwas a rally during the early weeks of long vacation, at Ngwo Park, Enugu.
\nOn the dais was the mercurial Chief Vincent Ikeotunye; industrious Chief
\nC.C. Onoh, debonair Chief Austin Ezenwa and gentleman Chief Alex Ekwueme.
\nBut the major attractions were Chief Emeka Ojukwu, Ikemba Nnewi and the
\nman he was about to introduce: Alhaji Shehu Aliyu Usman Shagari, the then
\nexecutive President of Nigeria. Shagari came to the microphone, with the
\ncharacteristic hail of his party, NPN. \u2018NPN \u2013 Super Power! One nation,
\none destiny!\u2019 Thus, he delved into a litany of promises.
\nMy fear is that 32 years after General Buhari aborted that very useful
\nexperience in democracy; Nigeria has failed to become one nation. The
\ndeeper fear is that it can never become one nation, in fact by current and
\nhistorical examples; it runs a real and present risk of disintegration.
\nExcept the politics, economics and society is fundamentally restructured.
\nWe are about to approach one year of a government, that was elected by
\nabout 25% of the registered voters.The general motivation for choosing the
\ncurrent government was change. Unsurprisingly, there was no common
\nagreement on what this mantra connotes.
\nHowever, I am unshakably convinced that Nigeria needs to change or face
\nits demise. This conviction comes from empirical and anecdotal evidence
\nthat abound, for whoever wishes to be objective.
\nIt was Obafemi Awolowo who once described Nigeria as \u201c\u2026 geographic
\ndescription\u201d. Permit me to remind us that every country is \u2018mere
\ngeographic description\u2019! But some countries have grown to become
\nnations also. Sadly, Nigeria is not one of them.
\nNigeria\u2019s boundary is an artificial creation, left behind by the British
\ncolonialist. It does not correspond to a religious, historical, cultural
\nor linguistic entity. This is the reality. We have largely lived as a fake
\nnation, and we know it. No wonder Awo penned those words. Every national
\npolicy from 1960 till date has the shadow of this false \u2018nationhood\u2019
\nwritten all over it. But we are a REAL country, with all the paraphernalia
\nof statehood. The greatest impetus the state has is force! And Nigeria has
\nbeen kept together by force, rather than by any unifying or over-arching
\nideology. There is a philosophy that underlies this forceful union,
\nthough. It is called CORRUPTION. The Economist magazine said that
\ncorruption is the only thing that works in Nigeria.
\nIt is worth pondering the fact that multi-ethnic democracy is the most
\ndifficult form of government to sustain. Add to it a multi-religious twist
\nand forceful political conjugation, and you will get a rather combustible
\nmix. We have seen many nations with less fault lines than Nigeria,
\ncollapse.
\nTake the Austro-Hungarian Empire, for a start. It was a multi-ethnic
\nnation-state or empire in the 19th century. It had Austria, Hungary,
\nCzech, Croats, Slovenia, and Italy as ethnic nations making it up. It was
\nBohemia in Czech heartland and Hungary with its rich land owners that bore
\nthe economic burden of sustaining the empire. Just like the former Biafran
\nhomeland in Nigeria. The empire inevitably collapsed with rather violent
\nrepercussions. The leaders and regions benefitting from the empire refused
\nto accept the necessary changes, when it was imperative.
\nThe Soviet empire is another example. Many people have forgotten that
\nSoviet Union was an amalgam of several ethnic nations including:
\nUkrainians, Estonians, Letts, Latvians, Mongolians, some Tartar, Georgians
\nand the anchor ethnic group \u2013 Russians. Communism was the ideological
\nglue used by Russia to control and exploit the other nations. Sometimes it
\ncan look eerily similar to Hausa-Fulani dominance in Nigeria. That empire,
\nas we know, collapsed under its own weight.
\nYugoslavia is a rather disquieting example. It was a multi-ethnic country
\nof Serb orthodox Catholics, Slovenia Roman Catholics, Croatians, plus
\nKosovo and Bosnia Muslim. They lived in uneasy accord, ensured only by the
\nauthoritarian regime of Tito. By early 1990, after the collapse of
\ncommunism, they began to simmer.
\nUltimately in December 1990, the DEMOS party of Slovenia won a referendum
\nfor independence from Yugoslavia and announced plan to secede in June
\n1991. The Croats followed them. The Serbs (the dominant ethnic group in
\nYugoslavi) declared war. The rest is common knowledge. Suffice it to say
\nthat there is no Yugoslavia today.
\nYugoslavia is very instructive because it was the \u2018poster boy\u2019 for
\nmulti-ethnic democracy in Europe! And it collapsed because its dominant
\nethnic group was disinclined to restructuring.
\nIn all multi-ethnic countries where such resistance to loose federation
\nfailed, war or bloody strife was the result (Bosnia, Croatia, Georgia,
\nRwanda, etc).
\nEvidence also abound that ethnic nations do rather well, irrespective of
\nresource base or geographic location and size. Think about Israel, Iran,
\nSlovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Macedonia, Armenia, etc. These are all
\nethnic nations. With the exception of Iran, the rest had to liberate
\nthemselves from a suffocating union.
\nNigeria will do well to learn from the abundant lessons of history. I see
\na lot of “Titanic” syndrome in Nigeria. The fundamental fault lines of a
\nmulti-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-religious, and multi-cultural democracy
\nare not being addressed.
\nELECTIONS: It is on record that the greatest flaw of Nigeria\u2019s attempt
\nat democracy has been elections. The aftermath of the massively rigged
\nelection of 1964 and the even worse chicanery of the 1965 repeated
\nelection in Western region inspired the first coup.
\nThe blatant manipulation of the election of 1983 was the main inspiration
\nfor Gen. Buhari\u2019s coup of 1983. The slumpy bungling of June 12 elections
\nin 1993, led to the greatest existentialist threat to Nigeria in modern
\ntimes. And ultimately Abiola lost his life, besides his mandate.
\nUnder Gen Obasanjo, the country witnessed the most brazen electoral
\nmalpractices. From 1999 to 2007, rigging could no longer define what went
\non as elections. The current president, Gen Muhammadu Buhari was twice
\nthrashed in supervised fraud called elections, under Obasanjo. Buhari
\nhimself said this. He, in fairness, took the matter to the apex court.
\nThey ruled against him in rather controversial rulings. Buhari, though he
\naccepted the judgement, completely disagreed with it.
\nToday, Buhari is president, because Dr Jonathan allowed a relatively free
\nand fair poll. Yet, the man Jonathan is vehemently vilified by all and
\nsundry in the ruling party.The wrong lessons are being learned by many
\nyouths, the ostensible future leaders. The lesson is \u2018Do not sacrifice
\nyour ambition for national unity in Nigeria\u2019. The worst possible
\nlesson.From the pathos of a multi-ethnic, winner-take-all, vindictive
\npolitics. Today Obasanjo, who twice supervised our most fraudulent
\nelectoral mileu, is Buhari\u2019s envoy. Remember the iceberg.
\nElection has been, and still is, a major fault line in Nigeria. But we
\nmust salute the landmark achievement and sacrifice of the former
\npresident, irrespective of his other failings.
\nThe other major fault lines in my opinion are corruption and
\nrestructuring. My take is that corruption is more a symptom of a badly
\nstructured and governed country. Where a distant \u2018Lord\u2019 milks
\nresources from a badly neglected \u2018vassal\u2019 and redistributes it as he
\ndeems fit. In any society, this will create a pervese incentive \u2013
\nCorruption. In Niger Delta, the landlord (indigenes) effectively pays rent
\nto the tenant (federal government). Such is the depth of the deceit.
\nNigeria is littered with many underlying policies, which raise my fear of
\ncalamity, if they are not re-visited. I will examine a few of them.
\nREVENUE FORMULA: I have previously (in a previous article) analyzed how a
\nnorth-led government accreted almost all revenues previously reserved for
\nthe regions and states, to the center. The Nigeria revenue generating and
\nsharing formula is one of its kind in the entire world. You cannot find
\nany country or nation where just about 6 states out of 36, provide 80%
\nfederal and distributable income.
\nYou can equally not find where such money spinning regions have to wait
\nfor allocation from the center. All oil revenue is taken by the federal
\ngovernment, and 13% of it is later \u2018allocated\u2019 to the oil producing
\nregion. On VAT, 90% is reserved for distributable pool. There is no
\ncountry in the world where such formulas are obtained.
\nIn multi-regional Spain, which has arguably the most acrimonious
\nmulti-region democracy in Europe, the relatively rich Basque region
\ncontrols most of its (Basque’s) tax revenue. It pays the center for
\nservices rendered (foreign affairs, defence,monarchy) by negotiated
\ntransfer. It controls all other aspects of its society. Yet, they feel
\naggrieved and Basque separatist movement has been an enduring reality in
\nSpain. Their grievance, amongst others, is having to subsidize poorer
\nregions like Andalusia in the south and Galicia, in the north. It is also
\nworth mentioning that the regions re-negotiate their contract with the
\nCentral Spanish government every five years. And some of them like Basque
\nand Catalonia have autonomy.
\nGermany has poorer, north eastern states (Landers) like Saxony,
\nBrandenburg, etc in East Germany. But they do not \u2018kidnap\u2019 resources
\nfrom West Germany. Neither is there a ‘mysterious’ revenue formula used to
\ndrain the richer West Germany, for purposes of one united Germany. There
\nare agreed and accepted transfer, from Berlin. Not forced or foisted
\nexploitation.
\nThe Mezzogiorro in Italy is a region of relative poverty. But it does not
\nresort to official extortion to re-distribute income from richer regions.
\nThe Nigeria revenue formula is unsustainable. There is deep resentment in
\nthe South-East and South-South of Nigeria over this insolent revenue
\nformula. My fear is that it may have reached a tipping point.
\nFEDERAL CHARACTER: In recent days, the supporters of Buhari have been
\ntelling the whole world that appointments made by Buhari are based on
\nmerit. This was in response to accusations of lopsidedness. I was rather
\nsurprised, since federal character, which was championed by the Northern
\nelites, has not been annulled. I wish it was.
\nFederal character is a classic form of quota system. Some people may
\nregard it as affirmative action. It was initiated by yet another North-led
\ngovernment in Nigeria. It was intended to reserve positions in the federal
\ncivil service to disadvantaged states. (Mainly in the North).
\nIt was a crass display of contempt for merit. It was supposed to be
\naffirmative action for minorities, but it has been affirmative action for
\nthe majority ethnic group. If the Federal Character Commission can be bold
\nto publish the employment in Federal Agencies and Parastatals by ethnic
\nnationalities, we will be chilled.
\nWhen Murtala Mohammed first advocated it to the constitution drafting
\ncommittee in October 1975, it was to give every citizen a sense of
\nbelonging in Nigeria. But many observers suspected that it was to balance
\nthe perceived hurdle that merit imposed on \u2018disadvantaged\u2019 states.
\nNo other multi-ethnic or multi-lingual society (talk less of
\nmulti-religious one) applies this type of affirmative action.
\nIndia has quota system for her civil service, but it is mainly for the
\nlower cadre. The upper or administrative cadre of the civil service is
\nrecruited through one of the toughest exams in the world. It is purely on
\nmerit.
\nBelgium has it French-speaking and Fleming speaking population. But
\nrecruitment to her civil service is by successfully passing a competitive
\nexamination, organized by the federal selection and recruitment office
\n(SECOR).
\nCanada likewise has English-speaking and French-speaking regions. Till
\n2003, it used a \u2018best-qualified\u2019 critera for recruitment. From 2003,
\nunder its Public Service Modernization Act, it now applies a value-based
\napproach. Emphasis is on experience, skill and knowledge for the
\nadvertised position. No federal character or ethnic character. In fact in
\n1984, its commission on Equality in Employment recommended that no quota
\nshould be applied in civil service. Rather specific targets can be set for
\nrelevant groups like the disabled, etc.
\nWhere did this federal character come from? It is another grievous fault
\nline, that I am afraid could tip the balance against tolerance.
\nHIGHER EDUCATION: Nigeria is the only country in the world where a
\nfederally subsidized tertiary education is not merit-driven. How can we be
\ncomplaining about the quality of graduates, when only 40% of university
\nand tertiary education is reserved for merit? Imagine that! Higher
\neducation in the 21st century is based on sundry considerations like
\n\u2018catchment areas\u2019.
\nWhen countries are worried about the quality of their higher education and
\nfocused on selecting the best. Nigeria is trying to preserve ethnocentric
\nadmission policy that rewards tribe and religion and punishes merit and
\nhard work. What kind of nation or country are you expecting to build?
\nYoungsters from the south can score 200 in JAMB, and fail to gain
\nadmission in federal-subsidized institutions. Their counterparts in the
\nnorth scores 66 and gets admitted into choice professional courses. I am
\nyet to see anywhere in the world where this formula is applied. It is
\nstraight from the pit of hell. Meanwhile the North is not in anyway
\ndisadvantaged in intelligence!
\nSeveral nations preserve affirmative action for tertiary education, but it
\nis always a low percentage, never exceeding 15%-20%. Reserving 60% of a
\nnation\u2019s university education for considerations, other than merit, in
\nthe 21st century, is a recipe for mediocrity.
\nIn Nigeria\u2019s case, because these youngsters can easily compare what
\nhappens in other climes, resentment builds up.This is another
\nsub-terrainian fault line that has generated tremendous animosity. I am
\nafraid for this country if this continues.
\nLAND USE ACT: This act effectively transferred ownership of 900,000 square
\nkilometers of Nigeria land to the government. It is Marxist in
\nprinciple.
\nIn the pre-colonial days, land management was vastly different in the
\nNorth and South of Nigeria. The North practiced a more feudal system of
\nland maximization within the ancient state.It was uncommon to see small
\nland owners in the North, before the British incursion. This is unlike
\nin the south, from south-east, south-south, to south-west, where land
\ntypically belongs to families and individuals. There were many small land
\nholders (farmers). People typically farmed their land, rather than work in
\nlarge farms that belong to feudal lords, as was the case in the
\npre-colonial north.
\nToday, we have a land policy directly borrowed from the former northern
\npractice. The feudal lord now is the government. This is alien to the
\ntypical and customary land management in southern part of Nigeria. It is
\na reform whose time has come.
\nMIDDLE BELT: The middle belt of Nigeria sits atop a two-thousand-foot-high
\nplateau of brown table land. It is the region where the Savannah meets the
\nSahel. Christianity meets Islam and North meets South. It is a major fault
\nline.
\nFrom the inception of civil rule in 1999, more Nigerians have lost their
\nlives in the middle belt violence, than in any other part of Nigeria. This
\nfact is usually lost. The middle belt has borne the major brunt of the
\npastoral non-chalance of Fulani herdsmen. It has also borne the greater
\nscar of the inter-religious crisis in Nigeria. Resentments run deep among
\nthe different antagonist in this region. The fact that the two major
\nreligion in Nigeria are inter-mingled here has hardened the edge of each
\nfaith in this region.
\nThe middle belt could have been an earthly paradise, but it is not. There
\nis a perpetual civil war going on there, from Plateau to Nassarawa, from
\nBenue to Kogi, with spillovers. Ambush with fatal consequences is the
\nmodus operandi.
\nMy fear is that these fault lines have so much weakened the Nigeria
\nsociety, though the political super-structure appears to be intact. It is
\na Potemkin polity. The last election also showed a deeply divided nation.
\nThe middle belt votes were largely split in the states where the fault
\nlines are most evident (Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Plateau). The south-west
\nwas also split 6:4, while the former Biafran nation and former Sokoto and
\nBorno empires went over 90% for their \u2018son\u2019.
\nI want Nigeria to survive. But I want it to survive as a just, fair,
\nequitable nation, that is built on merit and oppportunities
\nWe must tell ourselves the truth. This experiment of an almost equal
\nChristian and Muslim polity, has never worked anywhere before. It is a
\nproduct of British imagination. If we want it to work, we must pull down
\nall institutional injustices.
\nIn India, the British attempted to create a single nation of large Hindu
\nand Muslim constituents. Mahatma Gandhi, the idealist, supported the plan.
\nThankfully, a political pragmatist, in the person of Ali Jinah, was able
\nto persuade the colonialists that the formula was a ticking bomb.
\nThis was why Pakistan was carved out for the Muslims, as a Muslim nation.
\nAnd India was left for mainly the Hindus. Yet India and Pakistan have
\nfought five wars since 1947. Imagine if they had been one country.
\nThe British made similar mistake in Iraq. It was an artificial creation of
\nincompatible groups: Kurds, Shitte Muslims, and Sunni. They had only been
\nheld together by oppressive forceful regimes since 1958. Ethnic and
\nsectarian animosities were forcefully suppressed for decades. Today,Iraq
\nis the global hotbed of vicious violence.
\nNigeria has to look at all these nations, to confirm what does not work.
\nThe current structure of Nigeria’s politics, economics, and society is not
\nsustainable. We have to look at nations like UK, Canada and India, to
\nlearn how to manage a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-religious
\ndemocracy.
\nBut my fear is that current leaders are too busy fighting yesterday’s
\nbattles.
\nThe iceberg is getting closer!
\nOLISA AKUKWE
\n@FrankOlisa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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