Unless President Muhammadu Buhari, 73, can subdue armed militants<\/p>\n
attacking gas facilities that supply the nation\u2019s power plants, his plans
\nto remedy an electricity shortage he called a \u201cnational shame\u201d in his
\ninauguration speech a year ago will be stillborn. In March, Buhari said he
\nwould increase power generation by 2,000 megawatts this year and raise it
\nby 2019 to 10,000 megawatts, double this year\u2019s peak in early February.<\/p>\n
Then militants in the oil-rich Niger River delta started repeatedly
\nblowing up gas pipelines, lowering electricity output to 1,000 megawatts
\non May 23. The scarcity has battered an economy already in crisis because
\nof falling prices for its main export, oil, threatening a recession. As it
\nis, Africa\u2019s largest economy currently generates about a 30th of South
\nAfrica\u2019s electricity production, for a population more than three times
\nits size.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor all the plants, there\u2019s no gas,\u201d said Dallas Peavey Jr, chief
\nexecutive officer of Nigeria\u2019s largest power facility, Egbin, whose output
\nhas fallen to less than 10 percent of its 1,320-megawatt capacity. \u201cWe\u2019re
\nsitting idle here.\u201d
\nWith Africa\u2019s biggest gas reserves of more than 180 trillion cubic feet,
\ngas-generated power was touted as the obvious solution by a succession of
\ngovernments to end daily blackouts that cost the economy at least 2
\npercent of gross domestic product growth annually, according to the
\nMinistry of Finance. Gas-fired power plants provide about 80 percent of
\nNigeria\u2019s electricity supply, according to Pabina Yinkere, head of
\nresearch at Lagos-based Vetiva Capital Management Ltd.
\nWith current power output the lowest in a decade, millions of Nigerians
\neither do without electricity or are forced to buy fuel for their own
\ngenerators. Even when output reached its 5,000-megawatt peak, most of the
\ncountry was in darkness, Yinkere said.<\/p>\n
\u201cNigeria\u2019s electricity consumption per capita is 142 kilowatt hours
\ncompared to 4,328 KWH in South Africa,\u201d Yinkere said.<\/p>\n
The partial sale of 17 former state-owned power utilities three years ago
\nwas meant to attract investment needed to expand the grid. Yet, private
\ninvestors have been hampered by increasing debt owed by government, an
\ninability to obtain foreign exchange to import equipment and, now,
\nmilitant attacks on key installations.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the vandalism is not addressed urgently and comprehensively,
\nelectricity will continue to deteriorate and the government\u2019s aspiration
\nto significantly increase power generation by 2019 would be a mirage,\u201d
\nDesmond Ogba, managing counsel and head of energy projects at Lagos-based
\nlaw firm Templars, said in a phone interview .All but four of the
\ncountry\u2019s 23 gas-powered generators have been shut down after militants
\ncalling themselves the Niger Delta Avengers knocked out the Forcados
\nexport pipeline in February, and the Escravos-Lagos link early May.<\/p>\n
A Royal Dutch Shell plc spokesman, Precious Okolobo, said Wednesday
\nrepairs were continuing on Forcados. The link will reopen in July,
\nEmmanuel Kachikwu, minister of state for petroleum, told reporters
\nThursday in Vienna. Government officials say Escravos may not open until
\nSeptember, according to Peavey.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen people break the gas line it\u2019s like breaking the diesel tank or your
\npetrol tank that supplies your generator at home and that\u2019s why the power
\nsituation is currently this bad,\u201d Babatunde Fashola, the minister of
\npower, works and housing, said in a statement on May 21. \u201cAs soon as we
\nrestore those gas pipelines, power will improve.\u201d<\/p>\n
Buhari has vowed to deal with the militants in the delta in a similar way
\nhe has handled Boko Haram\u2019s deadly campaign in northeastern Nigeria. The
\narmy has fought the Islamist group for years and appears to have succeeded
\nin weakening it in recent months.<\/p>\n
Rebels in the delta say they are fighting for a greater share of the
\nregion\u2019s oil resources and to protest poverty, unemployment and
\nenvironmental pollution from decades of hydrocarbon exploration and
\nproduction. A previous militant campaign abated in 2009 when the
\ngovernment offered the fighters an amnesty and payments to disarm.
\nInsurgent leaders also received contracts worth millions of dollars to
\nprotect the oil facilities.<\/p>\n
The violence resumed when Buhari, a former army general, ended the
\nsecurity contracts and reduced the monthly stipends.<\/p>\n
In a speech marking his first year in office on May 29, Buhari signaled he
\nmay reconsider the termination of stipends for the ex-fighters and said he
\nwould curb violence through steps including talks with regional leaders
\nand \u201cre-engineering\u201d the amnesty program.<\/p>\n
While authorities have stepped up security in the area, Kachikwu said
\ntalks with militant representatives began a few days ago. \u201cWe\u2019re going to
\nget it to be more inclusive,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019ll talk with those who are
\naggrieved, we\u2019ll talk to our brothers who feel pain and are unhappy.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are no quick fixes to the challenges,\u201d Yinkere said. \u201cThe only way
\nout I see is for the government to negotiate with the militants. The
\ngovernment needs to dialogue. Using force will not bring a solution to the
\nchallenge.\u201d<\/p>\n
Until the violence ends and the gas supplies resume, Peavey has shelved
\nplans to double Egbin\u2019s output.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe can\u2019t double the capacity if we can\u2019t find the fuel,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Unless President Muhammadu Buhari, 73, can subdue armed militants attacking gas facilities that supply the nation\u2019s power plants, his plans to remedy an electricity shortage he called a \u201cnational shame\u201d…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38414,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-exclusive"],"yoast_head":"\n