{"id":52459,"date":"2016-08-19T19:25:10","date_gmt":"2016-08-19T18:25:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=52459"},"modified":"2016-08-19T19:36:00","modified_gmt":"2016-08-19T18:36:00","slug":"buharis-economic-policies-height-foolishness-financial-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/buharis-economic-policies-height-foolishness-financial-times\/","title":{"rendered":"Buhari&#8217;s Economic Policies, Height of Foolishness-Financial Times"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Financial Times UK has described the economic policies of the<br \/>\nPresident Muhammadu Buhari administration as the \u2018height of foolishness\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>The leading international business publication in an article by Steve<br \/>\nJohnson, the deputy editor of the Financial Times, said the economic<br \/>\npolicies of the Buhari administration is doomed to fail because it is<br \/>\ntailored after Venezuela\u2019s exchange rate policy and China\u2019s failed equity<br \/>\nmarket strategy.<\/p>\n<p>The article faulted the circuit breaker on the Nigerian stock exchange<br \/>\nwhich pauses trading for 30 minutes if stock prices fall 5 per cent and<br \/>\nwill cease for the day if it is triggered twice in a session, or after<br \/>\n<span class=\"aBn\" tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_1171877498\"><span class=\"aQJ\">1.45pm<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>It noted that this month, Beijing abandoned a similar policy after just<br \/>\nfour days, stating that in a falling market the existence of the circuit<br \/>\nbreaker encouraged more selling as traders rushed to exit while they<br \/>\ncould.<\/p>\n<p>Quoting John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics, it said:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is hardly confidence-inspiring that Nigeria is copying a Chinese<br \/>\npolicy that is widely seen to have failed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>See the full article below:<\/p>\n<p>Nigeria plans to create a $25 billion fund with public and private<br \/>\nfinancing to modernize infrastructure and avoid a recession.<\/p>\n<p>Copying Venezuela\u2019s exchange rate policy and China\u2019s failed equity market<br \/>\nstrategy might seem the height of foolishness.<\/p>\n<p>But, at least in the opinion of John Ashbourne, Africa economist at<br \/>\nCapital Economics, that is precisely what Nigeria, the continent\u2019s largest<br \/>\neconomy, has just done.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLow oil prices are battering Nigeria\u2019s export-dependent economy, but it\u2019s<br \/>\nthe government\u2019s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country<br \/>\ninto a Venezuela-style crisis,\u201d Mr Ashbourne says.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNigeria is sliding towards a Venezuela-style FX regime and adopting a<br \/>\nChinese-style stock market circuit breaker. Neither will reassure foreign<br \/>\ninvestors, many of whom seem to be eyeing the exits.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Both measures were announced after markets closed on <span class=\"aBn\" tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_1171877499\"><span class=\"aQJ\">Friday, January 15<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>The circuit breaker on the Nigerian stock exchange, one of the worst<br \/>\nperforming in the world this year with a fall of 17.7 per cent, will pause<br \/>\ntrading for 30 minutes if stock prices fall 5 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>Trading will cease for the day if it is triggered twice in a session, or<br \/>\nafter <span class=\"aBn\" tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_1171877500\"><span class=\"aQJ\">1.45pm<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>This month, Beijing abandoned a similar policy after just four days,<br \/>\nconcluding that in a falling market the existence of the circuit breaker<br \/>\nencouraged more selling as traders rushed to exit while they could.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe effect is akin to calling last orders at a crowded bar,\u201d Mr Ashbourne<br \/>\nsays.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is hardly confidence-inspiring that Nigeria is copying a Chinese<br \/>\npolicy that is widely seen to have failed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He accepts that Nigeria\u2019s circuit breaker may not be as badly designed as<br \/>\nthe Chinese version.<\/p>\n<p>Whereas the NSE All Share index rarely falls by 5 per cent a day, the<br \/>\nShanghai Composite did so a dozen times in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>The NSE\u2019s version has not yet been called into action.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Mr Ashbourne says that using a circuit breaker to shore up<br \/>\nthe market, rather than to avoid volatility, is \u201cdeeply flawed\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Simultaneously, the central bank has said it will stop selling US dollars<br \/>\ninto the interbank FX market.<\/p>\n<p>Nigeria has operated a de facto twin currency system for the naira since<br \/>\nFebruary 2015, when the bank held the official interbank rate at N199 to<br \/>\nthe dollar to avoid a spike in inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The unofficial rate, available at bureaux de change, has plunged to<br \/>\nN300\/$, as the first chart shows.<\/p>\n<p>However Mr Ashbourne argues the latest move takes Nigeria a step along the<br \/>\nroad to a Venezuela-style scenario, where the dollar now buys 913 bol\u00edvars<br \/>\non the black market, according to <a href=\"http:\/\/dolartoday.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?hl=en&amp;q=http:\/\/dolartoday.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1471717811733000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGWx6Gr_Eu5LNpQrdJOaZHe8hjdWQ\">dolartoday.com<\/a>, compared with an<br \/>\nunofficial rate of 6.28\/$.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSuspending US dollar sales to the interbank market will force consumers<br \/>\nand firms to source dollars at bureaux de change,\u201d he says, while<br \/>\nproviding an implicit subsidy for companies and individuals with the<br \/>\nconnections needed to access the official rate.<\/p>\n<p>As the second chart shows, Nigeria\u2019s reluctance to let the naira\u2019s<br \/>\nofficial exchange rate weaken means it has borne the brunt of the sharp<br \/>\nfall in oil prices since the middle of 2014.<\/p>\n<p>In naira terms, the oil price has fallen from $115 a barrel to around $35,<br \/>\nwith the modic** of weakening permitted so far doing little to take the<br \/>\nedge off the fall in oil prices to $28 in dollar terms.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, Russia, which has allowed the rouble to fall sharply, is<br \/>\nstill seeing oil prices of around $65 in local currency terms, with many<br \/>\nother oil exporters such as Brazil and Azerbaijan also seeing more<br \/>\ncushioning of the blow than Nigeria.<\/p>\n<p>Charles Robertson, chief global economist at Renaissance Capital, who drew<br \/>\nup the second chart, expects Nigeria to bow to the seemingly inevitable<br \/>\nand devalue the naira, given that his calculation of fair value is N305\/$,<br \/>\nvery close to the current black market rate.<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Related Posts generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Financial Times UK has described the economic policies of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration as the \u2018height of foolishness\u2019. The leading international business publication in an article by Steve&hellip;<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Related Posts generic via filter on wp_trim_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":52460,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-exclusive"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Buhari&#039;s Economic Policies, Height of Foolishness-Financial Times - Pointblank News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/buharis-economic-policies-height-foolishness-financial-times\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Buhari&#039;s Economic Policies, Height of Foolishness-Financial Times - Pointblank News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Financial Times UK has described the economic policies of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration as the \u2018height of foolishness\u2019. 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