{"id":54003,"date":"2016-10-24T06:44:16","date_gmt":"2016-10-24T05:44:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=54003"},"modified":"2016-10-24T06:44:16","modified_gmt":"2016-10-24T05:44:16","slug":"nigerias-external-debt-investment-grade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/articles-opinions\/nigerias-external-debt-investment-grade\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Nigeria\u2019s External Debt Of Investment Grade?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Abraham E. Nwankwo<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As Nigeria reforms, restructures and strategizes towards pulling back the economy unto a path of inclusive and sustainable growth, it is useful to pay detailed attention to the sectors and subsectors.\u00a0 This is because while summary pictures succeed in showing the prevailing conditions, the secrets to the various pieces of the solution lie in the details.\u00a0 That is, appropriate disaggregation<\/strong> is good for effective diagnostics, analytics and strategics, as well as for understanding investor calculus.<\/p>\n

In respect of Nigeria\u2019s public debt, it is important conceptually and practically, to recognize that the domestic and external components are conditioned and governed by dynamics that are considerably different.\u00a0 Indeed, it is pertinent to note that in spite of the drastic drop in the country\u2019s foreign exchange earnings, following the oil-price shock since mid-2014, the external debt liability hardly constitutes a source of vulnerability.<\/p>\n

What are the sources of strength in Nigeria\u2019s external debt profile?<\/strong><\/p>\n

As Table I (Column (a)) shows, as at end-June 2016, external debt accounted for only 18.33% of the country\u2019s total debt stock of about N16 trillion (USD 61 billion) \u2013 compared to the optimal target of 40% established in the country\u2019s medium term Debt Management Strategy (2016-2019).\u00a0\u00a0 Moreover, within that very small external debt, concessional debt (with average interest rate of about 1.25% per annum and average tenor of about 40 years) accounted for about 80% of the total.\u00a0 Similarly, the table (Column (b)) shows that the ratio of the external debt to the GDP was only about 2.24% as at end-June, 2016 \u2013 compared to the internationally defined threshold for external debt, of 40% for the applicable peer group.\u00a0 Correspondingly, the external debt service accounted for an insignificant proportion of the total public debt service expenditure:\u00a0 The annual external debt service expenditure for the last 5 years was always less than 6.5% of the total public debt service outlay.<\/p>\n

These features reflect the strategic stance taken after the exits from the Paris the Paris and London Club debts in 2005 and 2006 respectively.\u00a0 Nigeria deliberately decided to develop and depend more on the domestic bond market as a reliable alternative source of borrowing by the government.\u00a0 This was to avoid compelled dependence on external sources.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n
 <\/p>\n

Table I<\/strong><\/p>\n

NIGERIA: EXTERNAL DEBT RATIOS AFTER PARIS & LONDON CLUB DEBTS EXITS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/strong><\/td>\n(a)<\/strong><\/p>\n

External Debt Stock as Percentage of Total Debt Stock (%)<\/strong><\/td>\n

(b)<\/strong><\/p>\n

External Debt Stock\/GDP Ratio<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

(%)<\/strong><\/td>\n

(c)<\/strong><\/p>\n

External Debt Stock\/Export Ratio<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

(%)<\/strong><\/td>\n

(d)<\/strong><\/p>\n

External Debt<\/strong><\/p>\n

Service\/Export Ratio<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

(%)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

2006<\/td>\n20.43<\/td>\n4.28<\/td>\n15.79<\/td>\n20.05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011<\/td>\n13.64<\/td>\n3.10<\/td>\n8.40<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
June, 2016<\/td>\n18.33<\/td>\n2.24<\/td>\n23.37<\/td>\n0.74<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/p>\n

Applicable Limit<\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

40.00*<\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

40.00<\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

150.00<\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

20.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

*Established in Nigeria\u2019s Debt Management Strategy, 2016-2019<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Returning to policy and market indicators as shown in the table, we need to evaluate the ability of the country to service its external debt as and when due.\u00a0 The capacity to service external debt is defined in terms of the cover provided by export earnings of the borrower. As shown in columns (c) and (d) of the table, the external debt stock <\/strong>is currently about 23% of the export earnings, whereas the applicable threshold is 150%: this means that the indicator is 7 times stronger than it needs to be.\u00a0 Similarly, the external debt service <\/strong>\u00a0is currently about 0.74% of total export earnings, compared to the applicable threshold of 20%: this means that this liquidity indicator is 27 times stronger than what \u00a0is required to guarantee that the external debt can be serviced as and when due.\u00a0 In addition, there is an administrative safeguard: since 2005, Nigeria\u2019s prudential public debt management practice has been that debt service charge is the topmost item in the sequence of the line of expenditures in the budget.\u00a0 Only very few other developing economies could boast of such a healthy and attractive external debt condition.<\/p>\n

Therefore, taken by itself, Nigeria\u2019s external debt is uniquely of top investment grade.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Empirically, this position is well supported by investors and the markets.\u00a0 That is why inspite of global economic, financial and foreign exchange tribulations, as well as local structural challenges which have manifested since mid-2014, Nigeria\u2019s Eurobonds have continued to trade creditably at stable low yields relative to the weight of the challenges and compared to other countries\u2019 Eurobonds.<\/p>\n

For example, Nigeria\u2019s 10-year Eurobond (2013-2023), which traded at an average yield of about 6.945% for 2015 and at 8.680% for January 2016, has been trading at a daily yield of between 6.147% and 6.571% so far throughout the month of September 2016.\u00a0 Similarly, the current yields on both the 2013 \u2013 2018, 5-year Eurobond and the 2011-2021, 10-year Eurobond are lower than their January 2016 figures by about 280 basis points and 215 basis points, respectively.\u00a0 In summary, Nigeria\u2019s Eurobonds are substantially in greater demand and are more highly priced than they were about a year ago.<\/p>\n

What do these market statistics show?<\/strong><\/p>\n

One<\/strong>, they show that after the initial distraction and exhibition of historically-ingrained pessimistic tendency, investors and the markets have had to realign to the reality that Nigeria\u2019s external debt is, indeed, of a top-class grade \u2013 it is adequately\u00a0 insulated from shocks, even deep ones.<\/p>\n

Two<\/strong>, they show that investors are confident that Nigeria has the capacity to move, and is moving, from economic downturn to turnaround and prosperity \u2013 in spite of initial glitches.<\/p>\n

Three,<\/strong> they show that no matter how much the speculative invasion unleashed against Nigeria\u2019s economy by unimaginative and analytically-static credit rating and news agencies, the boundless investment opportunities, market resilience and positive dynamics of ongoing reforms, which characterize Nigeria\u2019s economy, are well-known to, and usefully digested by, real investors \u2013 local and foreign.<\/p>\n

Four,<\/strong> and finally, they show that investors have substantial appetite for new Eurobond issues from Nigeria \u2013 an appetite which, in spite of acknowledged alternative investment destinations, only Nigeria can satisfy.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

*Dr. Abraham E. Nwankwo is the Director-General of the Debt Management Office, Nigeria<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Nwankwo   As Nigeria reforms, restructures and strategizes towards pulling back the economy unto a path of inclusive and sustainable growth, it is useful to pay detailed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-opinions"],"yoast_head":"\nIs Nigeria\u2019s External Debt Of Investment Grade? - Pointblank News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/articles-opinions\/nigerias-external-debt-investment-grade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Nigeria\u2019s External Debt Of Investment Grade? - Pointblank News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Abraham E. 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