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All eyes are on the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, following the By Sufuyan Ojeifo All eyes are on the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, following the successful presidential primary election that produced former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, as the party\u2019s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":59052,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-opinions"],"yoast_head":"\n
\nsuccessful presidential primary election that produced former vice
\npresident, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, as the party\u2019s standard bearer in the
\nscheduled February 16, 2019 election.
\nThe excitement that greeted the victory of Atiku was so sensational that
\none would think it was the actual presidential election that the Jada-born
\npolitical warhorse had tucked in his kitty. Regardless, that sense of
\nanimation was understandable on two scores.
\nFirst was the quality of aspirants with whom he jostled for the ticket. A
\nmajority of the twelve aspirants were uniquely qualified to be the party\u2019s
\nstandard bearer. The primary election was tension-soaked while the
\npoliticking that presaged it was down to the wire. In the corollary, one
\nof them was expected to emerge as the candidate and he did.
\nSecond, although the eventual winner was predictably located among the
\ntrio of Atiku, Senate President, Bukola Saraki and former speaker of the
\nHouse of Representatives and governor of Sokoto, Aminu Tambuwal, the
\nemergence of Atiku would appear to tally with reasonable expectations of
\nthe vast majority of the party members and Nigerians, judging by their
\ndivergent and nuanced reactions.
\nIndeed, the dimensions of reactions to Atiku\u2019s candidature from within the
\nparty and, more especially, from the governing All Progressives Congress,
\nAPC, have not diminished the magnitude of his persona. Rather, there is a
\nsense in which millions of Nigerians have appropriated the Atiku
\ncandidature and approximated it as the face of Nigeria\u2019s presidency in
\n2019.
\nEvidently, the 2019 presidential election promises to be predominantly a
\ntwo-horse race between the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku.
\nBoth men are ready for the poll. As the founder of Latter Rain Assembly,
\nPastor Tunde Bakare, said, \u201cIt is going to be a battle of eagle versus
\neagle.\u201d He had gone ahead to describe Atiku as a \u201ccosmopolitan wazobian\u201d.
\nMany others had already drawn some comparisons between the two leading
\ncandidates for the nation\u2019s plum position: the fact that they are both
\ncore northern Fulani Muslims. To that extent, the northern masses would
\nunderstand that power is not leaving the regional enclave for the southern
\nregion of Nigeria. But the divergences in their individualities are
\npotential moot points that could be dilated by the elite for political
\nexpediencies in order to achieve some damage.
\nHowever, it would appear that such voyage could become impotent and
\ncounterproductive, given the current dispositions of the masses about the
\nhunger in the land purportedly inflicted on them by the administration of
\nPresident Buhari. The comparative individual divergences do not,
\ntherefore, present as a hurdle before Atiku. He appears good to go. Both
\nAtiku and the PDP apparatchiks are happy that they are now capacitated to
\nupstage the applecart of Buhari\u2019s presidency.
\nWhat, however, is the only hurdle to cross in the race through the
\nhomestretch for the ultimate price is the choice of a running mate. Which
\nzone of the southern region should the PDP look towards to pick a running
\nmate for Atiku? Or put differently, what will Atiku tell the PDP
\nleadership guard and other stakeholders in the Coalition of United
\nPolitical Parties, CUPP, working with the PDP for a grand alliance to
\ndislodge Buhari, about a running mate that he expects to work with in
\nterms of qualities, capacities, national visibility and acceptability?
\nThe issue of a running mate is what is presently engaging the attention of
\nthe leading opposition party. And, this is as critical as the presidential
\nticket. If I were to advise the PDP or Atiku on this sensitive matter, I
\nwill simply suggest that they look towards the southwest. My reasons may
\nnot appear far-fetched, but I believe they deserve some introspective
\nconsideration.
\nNow, this is the rationalisation for my take on the issue: the 2019
\npresidential election will be keenly contested. The figures of votes cast
\nand won will play a decisive role.\u00a0 Whoever gets the highest number of
\nvotes and the required spread in twenty-four states, representing
\ntwo-thirds of the states of the federation and the FCT, wins the election.
\nBuhari\u2019s northwest zone has registered voters in excess of 18 million
\nwhile Atiku\u2019s northeast zone has a little over nine million registered
\nvoter population. Arguing simplistically, by choosing its candidate from
\nthe northeast instead of northwest, the PDP has left the northwest for
\nBuhari and the APC to explore and exploit as much as possible.
\nAssuming the same goes for Atiku in the northeast, then Buhari and the APC
\nwill still have an excess of about nine million votes to, as much as
\npossible, harvest from in order to stay ahead of Atiku. The southwest is
\nnext to the northwest with registered voter population in excess of 14
\nmillion.\u00a0 Cumulatively, both northwest and southwest zones account for 32
\nmillion votes, leaving the remaining four zones with a cumulative figure
\nof about 38 million registered voters.
\nRemember that Buhari\u2019s running mate, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, is from the
\nsouthwest zone.\u00a0 Besides, he represents Bola Tinubu\u2019s singular most
\nformidable political camp in the zone.\u00a0 Osinbajo\u2019s vice presidential
\nticket thus represents a bragging right and a justified basis for Tinubu
\nto flaunt in the faces of leaders and people of the zone as a sense of
\nentitlement to the presidency on behalf of the Yoruba race.
\nTherefore, I do not think that the PDP and Atiku should leave the
\nsouthwest open to the APC.\u00a0 That will be politically dangerous and
\nelectorally counterproductive in the circumstance. It is a notorious fact
\nthat whoever wants to win the presidential election must lock in the
\nmassive votes of the northwest and the southwest. The PDP and Atiku must
\nsearch for a credible running mate from the southwest in order to up the
\nante of the presidential contest.
\nOnce that is done, the PDP stands a good chance of running neck and neck
\nor possibly defeating the APC in the zone, depending on how they go about
\npicking the running mate, in addition to some other factors well
\nconsidered. I expect that the Yoruba leaders, under the auspices of
\nAfenifere, and acting in concert with the CUPP that enjoys the buy-in of
\nformer President Olusegun Obasanjo, should play a prominent role in the
\nprocess so that whoever is picked enjoys groundswell support that will be
\nable to discount the enormity of Osinbajo\u2019s vice presidential candidature
\nin the zone.
\nThe idea of picking a running mate from the southeast should be shelved in
\nthe circumstance. The Ibo can be assuaged in the interim with the
\nspeakership position, given that the PDP has resolved to retain the senate
\npresidency in the north central zone. And, this is where Atiku\u2019s promise
\nof a single term presidency should kick in forcefully to assure and
\nreassure the Ibo that the presidency will move to the southeast in 2023.
\nAs someone said, the pledge should be well documented through the
\ninstrumentality of a court affidavit and given the widest publicity so
\nthat the entire world is aware of the existence of such a pact.\u00a0 This is
\nto ensure that the southeast, with a voter population in excess of eight
\nmillion, delivers the votes to the PDP.
\nThe south-south already has the national chairman; and being a traditional
\nstronghold of the PDP, it is expected to lock in massive votes in the
\nzone. The strategists in the PDP may have a superior permutation, but
\nsignificantly, it is not advisable to allow the APC to use the majesty of
\nits presidential and vice presidential candidates to smoothly dance to
\nvictory with bulky votes in the northwest and the southwest zones
\nrespectively without deliberately \u201cdisrupting\u201d the ballot in Yoruba land
\nthrough the choice of a running mate to Atiku from there.
\nOjeifo writes from Abuja via\u00a0ojwonderngr@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n