{"id":64296,"date":"2018-10-26T20:22:32","date_gmt":"2018-10-26T19:22:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=64296"},"modified":"2018-10-26T20:22:32","modified_gmt":"2018-10-26T19:22:32","slug":"2019-presidential-election-u-k-based-magazine-says-atiku-will-defeat-buhari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/2019-presidential-election-u-k-based-magazine-says-atiku-will-defeat-buhari\/","title":{"rendered":"2019 Presidential Election: U.K Based Magazine Says Atiku Will Defeat Buhari"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of The Economist<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Magazine, says Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party
\n(PDP) will defeat President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019.<\/p>\n

The London-based magazine made the prediction in its latest country report
\non Nigeria, which was obtained by THISDAY.<\/p>\n

This is coming less than two months after it had predicted that Buhari
\nwould lose the election.<\/p>\n

\u201cMr. Buhari is the APC\u2019s presidential candidate and his main challenger is
\nMr. Abubakar, who was recently nominated PDP\u2019s candidate with overwhelming
\nbacking from the party,\u201d the report read.<\/p>\n

\u201cAbubakar\u2019s pledge is to reinvigorate the economy with pro-market reforms.
\nBoth candidates are from the northern Nigeria, where Buhari\u2019s support base
\nlies, presaging a fierce contest there.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith the vote likely to be split in the North, Abubakar will find it
\neasier to garner support from the country\u2019s south, which has traditionally
\nbeen a safe haven for the PDP.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis gives Abubakar an edge, as does popular frustration over the rise in
\njoblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr.
\nBuhari\u2019s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria.\u201d<\/p>\n

The magazine said strong incumbency advantages in the country will make
\nthe contest a tight race.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Abubakar loses \u2013 a distinct downside risk to our forecast \u2013 there may
\nbe a rejection of the result by the PDP, which is convinced that election
\nwill be rigged,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn this scenario, a state of national paralysis could arise with severe
\nnational security implication.\u201d<\/p>\n

The EIU, which gave different reasons for its prediction, also noted that
\nwithout a party system based on shared principles, it would be difficult
\nto overcome Nigeria\u2019s multi-layered security threats.<\/p>\n

It added that instability and legislative paralysis would affect many
\naspects of the economic forecast.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe forecast that currency depreciation will keep annual inflation
\nelevated at an average rate of 13.9 per cent in 2019 -2020,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

\u201cFollowing this will be a period of disinflation in 2021- 2023 as the
\nnaira stabilises. Export growth will be slower in 2019-2020, as oil prices
\ndip in these years, than in 2021-2023, when world crude prices are
\nexpected to rise. Import demand will also be held back in 2019-2020, as
\nthe naira depreciates before picking up in 2021-2023 as the currency
\nstabilises.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe election period itself will be a time of high risk; as a recent
\nelection in Osun demonstrated, small scale violence at the polls is highly
\nlikely, as is disputation of the results.<\/p>\n

\u201cParliamentary rift will remain the main problem and this applies no
\nmatter who is in charge, given competing priorities between
\nrepresentatives from different regions and the absence of common ideology
\nwithin parties.<\/p>\n

\u201cWithout a collective resolve, it would prove impossible to bring
\npermanent peace to the large parts of Nigeria hit variously by an
\ninsurgency in the north, ethno-nationalism tensions and disputes over land
\naccess across the centre of the country.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt will prove to be hard to build a more effective security apparatus
\nwhile also creating economic opportunities for local population; poverty
\nlies at the root of much of the instability.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur central forecast is, however, that the 2019 elections will be
\ncompleted without a widespread breakdown of stability \u2013 with Nigeria\u2019s
\ndemocracy proving once again to be robust enough to endure.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn 2019, what are expected to be fiercely contested elections in February
\nwill hold back business and consumer confidence that year, and although
\nmarkets are likely to approve of Mr. Abubakar\u2019s economic reform agenda \u2013
\nmeaning the disruption is likely to be short-lived- we forecast a growth
\nrate of 1.9 per cent \u2013 the lowest rate of growth in our five-year outlook
\nperiod.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of The Economist Magazine, says Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will defeat President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019. 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