{"id":64824,"date":"2019-02-15T13:54:40","date_gmt":"2019-02-15T12:54:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=64824"},"modified":"2019-02-15T13:54:40","modified_gmt":"2019-02-15T12:54:40","slug":"a-good-look-at-how-buhari-will-lose-saturdays-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/a-good-look-at-how-buhari-will-lose-saturdays-election\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0 A good look at how Buhari will lose Saturday\u2019s election"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
<\/div>\n
\n
INEC has put the final number of registered voters for the 2019 general
\nelection at 84 million with the North West leading the pack as usual with
\n20.2 million, followed by the South West with 16.3 million registered
\nvoters.<\/p>\n

The thumb-print columns on the ballot-papers have been compressed further
\nby INEC to accommodate the very many parties duly registered and what that
\nmeans in essence, is that there will be many more invalid votes than
\nusual. We may witness a very high rate of rerun elections this year.<\/p>\n

Considering previous election turn-out, voter enthusiasm and current
\npolitical climate in the 36 states, this is what is expected to happen in
\nthis Saturday\u2019s Presidential election subject to it being free and fair.<\/p>\n

NORTH-WEST<\/p>\n

President Buhari will clinch the majority of votes in this region.Atiku
\nwill take it down to the wire in Kaduna. Asides the secured votes in the
\nChristian-dominated southern part of the state, he will also grab a
\nhandful in other places due to the quite decent PDP structure on ground.
\nWhile Kano ranks alongside Kebbi and Katsina as states Buhari is
\nguaranteed a clear win, Atiku should get close to 30% of the votes cast
\ndue to the Kwankwasiyya machinery working in his favour. Despite the
\nkillings in Zamfara, Buhari will surprise many by pulling more than half
\nof the probable 600,000 votes on Saturday. The PDP is totally in control
\nof neighbouring Sokoto state however and Atiku will conveniently pull
\nabout 500,000 of the 800,000 votes likely to be cast.<\/p>\n

The under-whelming performance of the incumbent Jigawa state governor has
\nallowed Sule Lamido and the PDP to endear themselves to the people and
\nthough this is highly debatable, Atiku will win Jigawa narrowly.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Buhari 6m, Atiku 3.7m<\/p>\n

SOUTH-WEST<\/p>\n

The South-Western electorate is the most liberal and open-minded in
\nNigeria. Whether we like it or not, we have not out-grown politics of
\nethnicity and religion. The major thing Buhari has going for him in the
\ncore northern states is an unerasable belief that he is a honourable man
\nwhile every other person, being Muslim regardless, is a \u2018worldly\u2019 fellow.<\/p>\n

The South West have no such problem. Tinubu has lost some degree of
\nrespect outside Lagos and the APC can no longer bank on his influence
\nacross the whole region. It will be a close contest in most of the states
\nexcept of course Lagos; the capital of Tinubu\u2019s crumbling empire where
\nBuhari should enjoy a comfortable victory. The APC presidential campaign
\nteam were stoned in Ogun just days ago. With Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Kashamu
\nBuruji and none other than President Obasanjo all working for an Atiku
\nvictory, it is already in the bag. The PDP will win Ekiti, Osun and Ondo
\nby slim margins but feelers indicate they will lose Gov. Ajimobi\u2019s Oyo
\nstate.
\nAfter all said and done in the South West, the PDP are likely to get about
\n3 million votes in total while the APC should get about 500,000 less.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Atiku 3m, Buhari 2.5m<\/p>\n

NORTH-EAST<\/p>\n

The average person in Yobe, Borno and Adamawa doesn\u2019t care whether or not
\nthe Buhari government has entered into an agreement with Boko Haram to
\nrelease school girls or cease activities for a while, they just know the
\ninsurgents haven\u2019t been half as active as they were before President
\nBuhari came into office. Add the fact that there is virtually no PDP
\nstructure in Borno and Yobe and you have why Buhari should take home
\nroughly 400,000 votes of the total number of 600,000 votes in Borno and
\nmore than half of the 500,000 votes in Yobe. The APC has a formidable
\nstructure in Atiku\u2019s home state of Adamawa with almost all the relevant
\npolitical figures united in their love for Buhari. Of the 700,000 votes
\nexpected to be cast, Buhari should win by a margin of about 100,000.
\nEveryone expects Atiku to win Gombe because of the strong PDP presence
\nthere but Buhari is still very much loved by the masses there and he
\nshould win. Bauchi has the largest number of voters in the North East and
\nin addition to the people being dissatisfied with the state governor\u2019s
\nperformance, they are also the most enlightened in the region. They
\nunderstand fully well that the question at this juncture is whether or not
\nNigerians deserve better. The state has a history of impressive voter
\nturn-out and we may just see half of the registered 2 million plus voters
\ncast their ballot. Of that million, Atiku\u2019s victory should be by a margin
\nof about roughly 200,000.The biggest Atiku margin in this region should
\ncome from Taraba. The former Minister of Women Affairs, Aisha Jummai
\nAlhassan, was the APC in the state and she migrated with all the party
\nexcos in the 169 wards in the state to the UDP. She is the first minister
\nin recent memory to openly endorse her President\u2019s rival before vacating
\noffice when she said she was for Atiku in 2019. It would surprise a lot of
\npeople if Buhari gets more than 100,000 of the likely 600,000 expected to
\nturn up.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Buhari 2.3m, Atiku 1.5m<\/p>\n

SOUTH-EAST<\/p>\n

The APC has tried gaining a foothold in the South South and South East by
\nenlisting some big names in the region but it really won\u2019t count. These
\npeople were always going to vote against a man who promised delivering
\ndividends according to how he was voted after his last victory. Talk more
\none who has performed worse than any President we have ever had.<\/p>\n

The Vice-Presidential candidate of the PDP, Peter Obi is an Ibo and at the
\nvery least, 5 million of the 10 million registered voters in the South
\nEast are expected to cast their votes this weekend. Of that 5 million, it
\nwould take a miracle for Buhari to get 400,000 votes.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Atiku 4.7m, Buhari 300,000<\/p>\n

SOUTH-SOUTH<\/p>\n

Despite the APC having presence in some South South states notably Rotimi
\nAmaechi\u2019s Rivers and Senator Godswill Akpabio\u2019s Akwa Ibom, Atiku is
\nexpected to get about a million votes while his opponent will struggle to
\nget past the 100,000 mark and in Akwa Ibom, the PDP should conveniently
\nsecure above 900,000 of the about 1 million expected to be cast.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Atiku 6.6m, Buhari 400,000<\/p>\n

NORTH-CENTRAL<\/p>\n

The North-Central has the 3rd largest voters registered and it is more or
\nless the region that erases all doubts as to an Atiku victory in a free
\nand fair contest. Of the over 1.6 million registered voters in Kogi,
\n600,000 are expected to turn out and more than half of that number will
\nvote the PDP. Adducable to not just Buhari\u2019s non-performance but the
\nunpopularity of Gov. Yahaya Bello outside his Ebira tribe in Kogi state.
\nPlateau is expected to hand over 800,000 of about 1 million votes cast on
\nSaturday to Atiku and about 500,000 of the 600,000 likely to vote in Benue
\nwill do so for Atiku as well. The state underwent its worst security
\ncrisis in recent memory under President Buhari and his administration has
\nbeen widely accused of being insensitive to their predicament. Nasarawa
\nhas about 1.6 million registered voters and about half that numbers are
\nexpected to turn out. It will be tight but the PDP should win it by a
\nnarrow margin. About 600,000 voters are likely to turn out on election day
\nbased on antecedents in Senate President Bukola Saraki\u2019s Kwara state and
\nthe PDP are expected to win it by a 50,000-100,000 margin. Niger is really
\nclose and could go to any of the 2 parties but it appears the APC will
\nclinch majority of the 700,000 votes cast on that day.<\/p>\n

Verdict: Atiku 2.7m, Buhari 1.5m<\/p>\n

Final Verdict: Atiku: 25.3m, Buhari:10m<\/p>\n

Umar Sa\u2019ad Hassan is a lawyer based in Kano.<\/p>\n

Twitter:@Alaye_100<\/p>\n

Email:uhassan077@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

INEC has put the final number of registered voters for the 2019 general election at 84 million with the North West leading the pack as usual with 20.2 million, followed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-exclusive"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00a0 A good look at how Buhari will lose Saturday\u2019s election - Pointblank News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/exclusive\/a-good-look-at-how-buhari-will-lose-saturdays-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00a0 A good look at how Buhari will lose Saturday\u2019s election - 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