{"id":66715,"date":"2019-05-17T05:22:14","date_gmt":"2019-05-17T04:22:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/?p=66715"},"modified":"2019-05-17T05:22:14","modified_gmt":"2019-05-17T04:22:14","slug":"that-apcs-wager-on-lawan-and-gbaja","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pointblanknews.com\/pbn\/articles-opinions\/that-apcs-wager-on-lawan-and-gbaja\/","title":{"rendered":"THAT APC\u2019S WAGER ON LAWAN AND GBAJA"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
By Sufuyan Ojeifo<\/div>\n
\n
\nI do not look into crystal balls. That is not my preoccupation.\u00a0 I
\ncertainly lack the endowment of predicting the future. That enterprise
\nis better left to the confident fortune-tellers. Agreed it is their
\nforte, there is the possibility of their getting it wrong sometimes and
\nsuch times could be moments of great national anxiety when the divine is
\nsummoned to duty to unknot identified tangles in the affairs of men.<\/p>\n

Regardless, the obsessed clairvoyants continue to indulge in their
\ndelicate trade. They foretell and are ready to take the glory or
\ndamnation for the precision or otherwise of their predictions. Even, if
\nI have a hunch about an upcoming occurrence, I will do well to harbour
\nit within the confines of my heart, until it manifests on its motion. If
\nit does not manifest, after all, as they say, \u201cnothing would have
\nspoilt\u201d. That is the beauty of my predilection.\u00a0 Refusing to saunter
\ninto the realm of clairvoyance, especially on political matters in a
\nvery unpredictable milieu such as ours is wisdom.<\/p>\n

Conversely, there is nothing to fear about looking into the past and
\ninterrogating events that shaped human history.\u00a0 The past is constant.
\nIt offers an expansive terrain for historians, archeologists,
\nanthropologists, researchers, etc., to dwell on. There is nothing to
\npredict about the past. But there is so much to visit through the voyage
\nof the mind. This reinforces the compelling insight of a philosopher who
\nonce said: \u201cThis then is denied unto God: the ability to change the
\npast.\u201d<\/p>\n

It is against this backdrop that I have set out to interrogate the
\nessential antecedents of the summative legislative voyages of Senator
\nAhmad Lawan and Honourable Femi Gbajabiamila (Gbaja, for short); and,
\nnot to predict how the All Progressives Congress\u2019 (APC\u2019s) wager on
\nthem for the positions of Senate President and Speaker of the House of
\nRepresentatives will turn out on June 11, during the inauguration of the
\n9thNational Assembly and election of presiding officers.<\/p>\n

Whether or not Lawan emerges Senate President or Gbaja will be installed
\nSpeaker of the House of Representatives, I know not. But what I know –
\nwhich does not require clairvoyance – is that both will be nominated to
\ncontest the position of presiding officers on June 11. The APC
\nleadership believes both candidates should win. But how sure-footed is
\nthe party\u2019s belief? They lost in 2015, perhaps because the party\u2019s
\nfaith was weak, having failed to enjoy the complementarities of a robust
\ngroundwork. After all, the Holy Bible says that faith without work is
\ndead.<\/p>\n

One of the lessons of the APC\u2019s loss in 2015 is that there is a limit
\nto which the leadership of the party or any party that controls the
\nmajority in the National Assembly can influence the election of
\npresiding officers without working to garner the support of
\nmembers-elect across party lines. The decision on who to vote for rests
\nwith the individual member-elect who exercises that right on the floor.
\nThe Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria expressly provides
\nthat members would elect presiding officers from among themselves, not
\nfrom among members of the majority political party.<\/p>\n

However, it is assumed in presidential democracies globally that
\npreference be given to the party that controls the majority seats in the
\nLegislature. While in Nigeria\u2019s Fourth Republic, vesting the authority
\nof Senate President or Speaker of the House in a member of the minority
\nparty is an unusual phenomenon, it becomes accepted through consensual
\narrangement reached by members for political survival as long as the
\nmajority of the members of the chamber, and not of the ruling party,
\npull in the same direction. That was the philosophy that powered Aminu
\nTambuwwal\u2019s emergence as Speaker of the 7th House of Representatives
\nin spite of Hon. Mulikat Adeola\u2019s endorsement by the then ruling
\nPeoples Democratic Party as its preferred candidate.<\/p>\n

And, when it became necessary for Tambuwwal to cross from the PDP to the
\nAPC in 2014\/2015, the same philosophical support about the independence
\nand unity of the legislature that defied party affiliations played an
\ninfluential role.\u00a0 Importantly, there was also the critical factor of
\ninter-personal relationship between the presiding officer, as primus
\ninter pares, and his colleagues. Tambuwwal cultivated robust
\ncamaraderie, solid inter-personal relationship and pragmatic public
\nrelations with his colleagues. It was therefore easy for him to ride
\nover episodic political storms.<\/p>\n

Indeed, rebellion against party positions did not start with the 2015
\nsaga that saw Bukola Saraki and Yakubu Dogara emerge Senate President
\nand Speaker, respectively, at the expense of Lawan and Gbaja that the
\nAPC endorsed for the positions. Both Saraki and Dogara acted much faster
\nand smarter than their party, then under the chairmanship of Chief John
\nOdigie-Oyegun.<\/p>\n

Now, with Adams Oshiomhole\u2019s leadership, I can vouchsafe that the APC
\nappears to be acting proactively and pragmatically ahead of the
\ninauguration of the National Assembly and the election of presiding
\nofficers, though some feel very strongly that the party\u2019s approach has
\nbeen more like imposing candidates on its caucus in the Federal
\nLegislature. But the party would not be dissuaded. Putting its wager on
\nLawan and Gbaja, the APC is staking its reputation a second time. The
\ndifference is that this time round, there is fire in the character and
\npluck of the man in the driver\u2019s seat – Oshiomhole.<\/p>\n

Unfazed by the historical rebellions that had fractured party discipline
\nand supremacy, especially in this Fourth Republic, Oshiomhole is digging
\nhis feet further into the process of building the leadership
\narchitecture of the National Assembly in the face of pockets of
\nresistance. The Oshiomhole leadership does not want to take prisoners
\ngoing by the massive underground and behind-the-scene mobilisation and
\ndeployment of the instrumentality of the anti-graft agency to rein in
\nsome stakeholders.<\/p>\n

Whereas, President Muhammadu Buhari has, on the surface, tried to detach
\nhimself from the process by not openly commenting on or reinforcing the
\nparty\u2019s purported endorsements of Lawan and Gbaja; party leaders and
\nmembers believe the party leadership enjoys tacit presidential support.
\nIf the leadership fails in its bid to install Lawan and Gbaja, it would
\nnot be for lack of will or the wherewithal to actualize the agenda;
\nmutual suspicion and strategic positioning for 2023 presidential
\nelection within the APC would have accounted for the failure.<\/p>\n

The purported hand of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who is believed to harbour
\ninterest in 2023 presidency, in the endorsement of Lawan and Gbaja has
\ngreatly threatened the so-called party position. There are moves to
\nscuttle the burgeoning Tinubu strategic dominance in the party ahead of
\nthe presidential battle. Governor Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna State is
\nbelieved to be coordinating a formidable national opposition against
\nTinubu\u2019s presidential agenda. The fear is that this opposition within
\ncould break up the APC caucus in the National Assembly and produce
\nelection results that are contrary to the party\u2019s reasonable
\nexpectations.<\/p>\n

If the aggravation is arrested and the APC leaders get to be on the same
\npage, what would be left for Lawan and Gbaja would be to deploy their
\ncharisma to win over and retain loyal support of their colleagues.
\nSignificantly, both must take steps to deal with the perception by their
\ncolleagues that they are arrogant and not team players. Once they
\novercome this hurdle, they could be home and dry with the party\u2019s
\nwager on them as an advantage. This, I hasten to say, is just a
\nsupposition and not a prediction.<\/p>\n

\u00b7\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0OJEIFO, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF THE CONGRESSWATCH MAGAZINE,
\nCONTRIBUTED THIS PIECE VIA\u00a0OJWONDERNGR@YAHOO.COM<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Sufuyan Ojeifo I do not look into crystal balls. That is not my preoccupation.\u00a0 I certainly lack the endowment of predicting the future. 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