The results of the Saturday November 16 2019 off-season polls in Kogi and Bayelsa States,
\nas announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission have, as expected, been
\nmired in controversy. The two elections were marred by violence as projected by many
\nanalysts in the run-up to the elections. According to the Election Analysis Committee of the
\nCentre for Democracy and Development, there were over 50 critical incidents that marred the
\noutcome of the elections in Bayelsa state alone. In Kogi State, over 10 deaths have so far
\nbeen reported from the elections in the State.
\nBeyond the orgy of deaths and other untoward incidents that characterized the polls in these
\ntwo states, including their contentious outcomes, there are a number of lessons from the
\nelections:
\nOne is the fluidity of political alliances in the country. It was obvious that after the
\nemergence of Senator Douye Diri, (who was reportedly backed by Governor Seriake
\nDickson) as the PDP\u2019s governorship candidate in Bayelsa State, that the party would go into
\nthe elections as a divided house. It was also obvious that former President Goodluck
\nJonathan, whose rumoured anointed candidate Timi Alaibe lost at the primary, did not warm
\nup to the candidacy of Senator Diri. There were equally reports of other forms of disrespect
\nshown to the former President by Governor Dickson. In fact after the Governorship
\nprimaries, many of Jonathan\u2019s political associates decamped to the APC. The rumour was
\nthat Jonathan would use the Governorship election to \u2018teach\u2019 Governor Dickson a lesson.
\nAfter the elections APC leaders led by Jonathan\u2019s long-term political adversary and now
\nMinister of State for Petroleum Chief Timipre Sylva and Governor-elect David Lyon
\nreportedly visited Jonathan to \u201cthank him for being neutral\u201d during the elections. While I can
\nunderstand Jonathan\u2019s lukewarm attitude to the PDP candidate \u2013 if not opposition to his
\ncandidacy- I think his virtual celebration of the defeat of a party that brought him from being
\na nobody to occupying the highest office in the land over a personal slight negates all the
\ngoodwill he accumulated as a selfless politician since he conceded defeat to Buhari in the
\n2015 elections. I feel that to allow the reported slight from Governor Dickson to becloud
\nwhat the PDP has done for him as a person, and for him to forget that he is seen as the father
\nof the party by many supporters, suggest politics without principles. And in taking such a step
\nover perceived slight, I wonder if he considered his hordes of supporters like Reno Omokri
\nwho have staked their lives and everything to defend him from the APC propaganda
\nmachine? Jonathan is today larger than life largely because of the spins from his supporters
\nand those who sympathize with him over the way they feel he was mistreated by the APC
\ngovernment.
\nI am not against the reconciliation of former political adversaries or re-alignment of political
\nforces, but such ought to be driven by larger visions, not personal slights or gains. In fact Lessons from the Kogi and Bayelsa Elections
\nJideofor Adibe
\nThe results of the Saturday November 16 2019 off-season polls in Kogi and Bayelsa States,
\nas announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission have, as expected, been
\nmired in controversy. The two elections were marred by violence as projected by many
\nanalysts in the run-up to the elections. According to the Election Analysis Committee of the
\nCentre for Democracy and Development, there were over 50 critical incidents that marred the
\noutcome of the elections in Bayelsa state alone. In Kogi State, over 10 deaths have so far
\nbeen reported from the elections in the State.
\nBeyond the orgy of deaths and other untoward incidents that characterized the polls in these
\ntwo states, including their contentious outcomes, there are a number of lessons from the
\nelections:
\nOne is the fluidity of political alliances in the country. It was obvious that after the
\nemergence of Senator Douye Diri, (who was reportedly backed by Governor Seriake
\nDickson) as the PDP\u2019s governorship candidate in Bayelsa State, that the party would go into
\nthe elections as a divided house. It was also obvious that former President Goodluck
\nJonathan, whose rumoured anointed candidate Timi Alaibe lost at the primary, did not warm
\nup to the candidacy of Senator Diri. There were equally reports of other forms of disrespect
\nshown to the former President by Governor Dickson. In fact after the Governorship
\nprimaries, many of Jonathan\u2019s political associates decamped to the APC. The rumour was
\nthat Jonathan would use the Governorship election to \u2018teach\u2019 Governor Dickson a lesson.
\nAfter the elections APC leaders led by Jonathan\u2019s long-term political adversary and now
\nMinister of State for Petroleum Chief Timipre Sylva and Governor-elect David Lyon
\nreportedly visited Jonathan to \u201cthank him for being neutral\u201d during the elections. While I can
\nunderstand Jonathan\u2019s lukewarm attitude to the PDP candidate \u2013 if not opposition to his
\ncandidacy- I think his virtual celebration of the defeat of a party that brought him from being
\na nobody to occupying the highest office in the land over a personal slight negates all the
\ngoodwill he accumulated as a selfless politician since he conceded defeat to Buhari in the
\n2015 elections. I feel that to allow the reported slight from Governor Dickson to becloud
\nwhat the PDP has done for him as a person, and for him to forget that he is seen as the father
\nof the party by many supporters, suggest politics without principles. And in taking such a step
\nover perceived slight, I wonder if he considered his hordes of supporters like Reno Omokri
\nwho have staked their lives and everything to defend him from the APC propaganda
\nmachine? Jonathan is today larger than life largely because of the spins from his supporters
\nand those who sympathize with him over the way they feel he was mistreated by the APC
\ngovernment.
\nI am not against the reconciliation of former political adversaries or re-alignment of political
\nforces, but such ought to be driven by larger visions, not personal slights or gains. In fact Lessons from the Kogi and Bayelsa Elections
\nJideofor Adibe
\nThe results of the Saturday November 16 2019 off-season polls in Kogi and Bayelsa States,
\nas announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission have, as expected, been
\nmired in controversy. The two elections were marred by violence as projected by many
\nanalysts in the run-up to the elections. According to the Election Analysis Committee of the
\nCentre for Democracy and Development, there were over 50 critical incidents that marred the
\noutcome of the elections in Bayelsa state alone. In Kogi State, over 10 deaths have so far
\nbeen reported from the elections in the State.
\nBeyond the orgy of deaths and other untoward incidents that characterized the polls in these
\ntwo states, including their contentious outcomes, there are a number of lessons from the
\nelections:
\nOne is the fluidity of political alliances in the country. It was obvious that after the
\nemergence of Senator Douye Diri, (who was reportedly backed by Governor Seriake
\nDickson) as the PDP\u2019s governorship candidate in Bayelsa State, that the party would go into
\nthe elections as a divided house. It was also obvious that former President Goodluck
\nJonathan, whose rumoured anointed candidate Timi Alaibe lost at the primary, did not warm
\nup to the candidacy of Senator Diri. There were equally reports of other forms of disrespect
\nshown to the former President by Governor Dickson. In fact after the Governorship
\nprimaries, many of Jonathan\u2019s political associates decamped to the APC. The rumour was
\nthat Jonathan would use the Governorship election to \u2018teach\u2019 Governor Dickson a lesson.
\nAfter the elections APC leaders led by Jonathan\u2019s long-term political adversary and now
\nMinister of State for Petroleum Chief Timipre Sylva and Governor-elect David Lyon
\nreportedly visited Jonathan to \u201cthank him for being neutral\u201d during the elections. While I can
\nunderstand Jonathan\u2019s lukewarm attitude to the PDP candidate \u2013 if not opposition to his
\ncandidacy- I think his virtual celebration of the defeat of a party that brought him from being
\na nobody to occupying the highest office in the land over a personal slight negates all the
\ngoodwill he accumulated as a selfless politician since he conceded defeat to Buhari in the
\n2015 elections. I feel that to allow the reported slight from Governor Dickson to becloud
\nwhat the PDP has done for him as a person, and for him to forget that he is seen as the father
\nof the party by many supporters, suggest politics without principles. And in taking such a step
\nover perceived slight, I wonder if he considered his hordes of supporters like Reno Omokri
\nwho have staked their lives and everything to defend him from the APC propaganda
\nmachine? Jonathan is today larger than life largely because of the spins from his supporters
\nand those who sympathize with him over the way they feel he was mistreated by the APC
\ngovernment.
\nI am not against the reconciliation of former political adversaries or re-alignment of political
\nforces, but such ought to be driven by larger visions, not personal slights or gains. In fact some are now insinuating that the purported support Jonathan gave to the APC candidate
\nmight not be partly unconnected with his wife\u2019s legal battles with the EFCC.
\nTwo, the APC has never made bones of its desire to have solid footholds in the oil-rich Niger
\nDelta (besides Edo State which it currently controls). It made very audacious efforts to take
\nover Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom and even Cross Rivers State during the last elections and
\ncame short. Now that it has gotten Bayelsa \u2013 largely on the back of the grudge matches that
\ntend to drive elections in many of the States in the Niger Delta – both the APC and the PDP
\nmay not be the same again. One of the likely impacts of APC\u2019s increased foothold in the
\nNiger Delta is that its current alliance configuration, seen as North and South-West alliance,
\nmay come under stress as the strategic importance of the South-West to the party diminishes.
\nWith Governor Nyesom Wike, who is in his second and final term in office as the Governor
\nof Rivers State already softening up his hitherto strong position to the APC, and with the PDP
\nlacking any financier of note, we may be moving towards a one party dominant state \u2013 the
\nposition the PDP was in until 2015. The PDP will, at least in the short to medium terms,
\nbecome more emasculated as it will lack not just financiers but the likes of Wike and former
\nGovernor of Ekiti State Ayodele Fayose who could at least bark back at the APC political
\nmachine. I expect series of re-alignments within the APC, and the emergence of new
\ntendencies and cleavages within the party. Essentially the outcome of the Bayelsa elections
\nmay also have changed the permutations for 2023.
\nThree, the election in Kogi State is interesting because the structure of the state almost
\nmirrors the structure of ethnic configuration in the country. The Igala, which are concentrated
\nin the East Senatorial District, constitute about 49 per cent of registered voters in the State.
\nThe PDP\u2019s candidate Musa Wada comes from the majority Igala \u2013 so on paper, and given the
\nethnic politics in the state, he stood a good chance. The incumbent Governor, Yahaya Bello
\nis an Igbira man from Kogi Central. The total number of registered voters in the North
\nCentral was slightly less than the total number of voters in Kogi West, dominated by the
\nOkuns. So how did Bello try to overcome the inherent disadvantages of contesting against a
\nman from a dominant ethnic group? First, he appeared to benefit from a prevailing anti-Igala
\nsentiment in both Kogi Central and Kogi West because the Igala have dominated the politics
\nof the state and are often accused of having a \u201csense of entitlement\u201d. Second is that he turned
\nKogi West into the battle ground area, combining a play on the anti-Igala sentiments with
\nstoking the fear factor that a vote for Musa Wada would mean that it would take a longer time
\nfor Kogi West to produce a governor. In hindsight, this fear factor would have been numbed
\nif former Governor Idris Wada, who had already served one term in office was the PDP
\ncandidate. It seemed that the prospect of Kogi West producing a Governor in 2023 was a big
\nattraction to the people there. There was equally the open endorsement of Governor Bello by
\nJide Omokore, an oil man with deep pockets from Kogi West who probably had his personal
\nreasons for that open endorsement. It is also not unlikely that some of the violence during the
\nelections were instigated to suppress or intimidate voters from opponents\u2019 strong areas of
\nsupport. Essentially, while the outcome of the Kogi election remains contested, it appears that
\nBello, often criticised for not being a \u2018performing Governor\u2019, benefitted from the above
\nstrategies.<\/p>\n
Four, questions should also be asked on why there was so much violence in the two elections
\ndespite the fact that the police claimed they deployed 66,241 personnel to the two states to
\npolice the elections. We were also told that these police personnel would be joined by other
\nparamilitary organizations like the Nigerian Civil Defence Corps.
\nThe Police claimed that 35,200 police personnel would be deployed to Kogi, which has 2548
\npolling units (meaning an average of over 13 police personnel per polling unit). While it is
\ntrue that Kogi is a massive state, sharing borders with some ten states, and that some of the
\npolice personnel would inevitably be deployed to man the borders, it still beggars belief that
\nso much violence could be perpetrated in the state amid so much alleged policing. It is also
\nsurprising that with such a huge number of police personnel, police presence was visibly
\nabsent in some polling units. The same can also be said of Bayelsa state which has a difficult
\nterrain and topography. Many people feel that if 31,041 police personnel were actually
\ndeployed to the state as claimed by the police to man the state\u2019s 1804 polling units ( an
\naverage of over 17 police personnel per polling unit), there would have been more police
\npresence than we saw during the elections. Since appropriations for these deployments were
\nmade, perhaps it will not be out of place for an inquiry on why such high level of violence
\n(which was anticipated in all the pre-election analyses for the two states) was still possible in
\nthe two states despite the alleged huge deployment of police personnel to both states. ________________________<\/p>\n
Email: pcjadibe@yahoo.com
\nTwitter: @JideoforAdibe<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The results of the Saturday November 16 2019 off-season polls in Kogi and Bayelsa States, as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission have, as expected, been mired in controversy.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":70540,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-opinions"],"yoast_head":"\n