Date Published: 05/06/09
Between Yar’Adua and Atiku
By Zayyad I. Muhammad
Politics, as the saying goes, is really fascinating and very complex. It is the only permanent thing in life that most of the times its intricacies go beyond our imagination. Nigerian politics, for instance, is in perpetual alignment, realignment and horse-trading.
President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar are products of same political group– The PDM. The duo see themselves as brothers; possibly due to the age-long established political, business and family ties between the Yar’Aduas and the Atikus.
As providence will have it, the two men are today at different political levels; Yar’Adua is the President of Nigeria, while Atiku is a former Vice President of Nigeria. Interestingly, the two men are today playing a kind of hide and seek politicking, all in the name of 2011.
As earlier mentioned, Nigerian politics is most of the times simply about openness and secrecy, honesty and deception. Supporters, political associates and foot soldiers of both Yar’Adua and Atiku are today engaged in what can be simply described as one-two-punch verbal political battle; which is fast pushing the two groups towards a bubble to bubble political pathway. Though recently at the PDP special convention, Yar’Adua may have cooled the legs of those championing to clear the way for him for 2011, when he advised that, it is not yet time to start the campaign for second term, until the last quarter of 2010. Political commentators argue that, the President’s statement is political, because the truth is, the battle for 2011 has already started.
The political scheming between Atiku and Yar’Adua is generating a lot of questions. One of the questions, students of politics are asking is: why is the verbal political war and scheming is more between the supporters, political associates and foot soldiers of Yar’Adua and Atiku than between the duo? Reasons for these are not far-fetched - Nigerian politics is notoriously outcome-oriented; its players can instantly change stand as it suits their political interest or ambitions. Another reason is; there are a lot of goodies associated for being close to the corridors of power, especially the powerful office of the President of Nigeria.
On the other hand, political pundits are asking some deeper questions- Are Yar’Adua’s men afraid of Atiku’s political machinery; which may knock President Yar’Adua out in 2011. Does Atiku still possess his hitherto political charisma, especially the one he enjoyed during his ‘no shaking’ political battle with former President Obasanjo? Atiku used to say that Yar’Adua is his brother; they are disciples of same political school and have historic family relationship, but is Atiku not too ambitious by his seeming attempt to takeover his ‘brother’s job comes 2011? Political observers are of the view that such relationship doesn’t count when it comes to political survival; they say evidenced to that was Yar’Adua’s used of his political might to denied Atiku a victory in the rerun governorship election in Adamawa. And also Atiku’s tenacious pursuance of his petition against Yar’Adua’s victory up to the Supreme Court.
President Yar’Adua said he is a promoter of rule of law, but why is it that he and his party the PDP descended heavily on Atiku when he (Atiku) criticized the federal government’s white paper on electoral reform- the Nigerian police withdrew Atiku’s police orderlies and the PDP lampooned him with a strong statement- when it said: “ Our instinct has always been to ignore Alhaji Atiku. However, it appears that the PDP tolerance of him and his cohorts is daily being taken for granted… Nigerians have come to know Alhaji Atiku Abubakar more than he thinks. For all his pretenses, he is definitely not one of the champions of democracy. His recent desperation to repair a battered image and bounce back to reckoning has fallen flat in his face, hence his latest remarks which are symptomatic of a drowning man latching unto every available straw for survival”.
Some commentators are of the opinion that, Atiku smartly attempted to return to the PDP, but some forces blocked it. If the opinion happened to be true; those forces that blocked Atiku’s attempt at returning to the PDP are definitely two; those that perceived him to be a threat to Yar’Adua’s second term and those that feel that once Atiku is accepted back to the PDP, it will be doom to them. But Will Yar’Adua love Atiku’s return to the PDP? The answer is a Yes and a No at the same time. Atiku was a member of the G21 and G34- the founding groups of the PDP; and he is still the Head of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), a political grouping founded by the late Gen. Shehu Yar’Adua, a movement that is still the backbone of the PDP. Yar’Adua can profit from Atiku’s return to the PDP as per a reunion of political family. However there is some kind of jumpiness within the Yar’Adua group about Atiku’s return to the PDP, which of course as a human being Yar’Adua may not overlook the reason behind it.
The seeming increasing political gap between Atiku and Yar’Adua is like what the strong man of Italian politics and its Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi called sopravvivenza politica- political survival. It is so complicated that a deeper look at it can reveal that, both sides can benefit as well as suffer from it- it is not only Yar’Adua or Atiku alone, but also their supporters, political associates and foot soldiers. However, if Yar’Adua and Atiku can employ the Late General Musa Yar’Adua’s style of politics- a win-win resolution of political disagreement between members of same political family, it will be beneficial to both President Yar’Adua and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Adamawa State, zaymohd@yahoo.com , 08036070980
