Date Published: 02/06/10

Nigeria: Before the Coup By Nwosu Chukwuemeka O.

Fed up with an absentee and indisposed president, a lot of Nigerians have concluded that a coup is now permissible. President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua had on November 23, 2009 left his duty post and travelled to Riyadh to seek medical attention for his kidney problems and an inflammation of the sac around the heart.

The immediate impact of the prolonged absence of Mr Yar'Adua can be seen in many sectors. Firstly, the nation failed to meet its set target of providing electricity for the country - as it likewise failed in many areas. The nation was classed terrorist by US Homeland Security. Carnage in the streets of Jos. Stalled national budget.

Public reaction to the disturbing absence has been swift.

In January, a leading group that goes by the nomenclature Save Nigeria Group organised peaceful demonstration on the streets of the nations capital Abuja, Lagos and some other cities across the world. Other groups have called for his resignation on condition that he is incapacitated to govern Africa's most populous nation.

The call for the president to formally authorise the Vice President to assume an acting president, it is an attempt to begin to identify elements of continuity as well as change in the transition to a healthier government. It is a call to uphold the constitution of the Federal Republic and move the country forward.

Meanwhile, President Yar'Adua has not viewed the worsening situation as an opportunity to demonstrate his servanthood and responsibility to address the nation.

On January 12, 2009, Mr YarAdua gave his infamous 3-minute telephone interview on the BBC which outlined and sough to indirectly justified his non-death, but this did not achieve the desired effect as it attracted a backlash from critics why he chose a foreign media to make his recorded speech.

Section 145 of the Nigerian Constitution imposes a duty on the President to transmit a written declaration to the Senate President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives that “he is proceeding on vacation or he is otherwise unable to discharge the functions of his office.” The non-transmission of a letter to the National Assembly means that the Vice President is not legally capable of acting as President - thereby creating a leadership vacuum.

The opposition parties have launched a tirade against the ruling People's Democratic Party, accusing it of inability to steer the ship of the nation. They have gone to court, in an attempt to compel President Umaru Yar'Adua to either hand over power to the vice president or resign. Authorities at the 894-bed King Faisal Hospital in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, say they have discharged the president and yet the president has failed to show up at home. The opposition says Nigerians deserve to know the true situation of the president's health. His absence for 74 days running is unprecedented for a president. However, it may not be unprecedented for the people in his home state: When Yar’Adua was serving as governor, the Katsina people raised a lot of dust when he took ill and was away for some six months in Saudi Arabia. Surely, Nigerians will have to wait longer for the return of their president.

Some politicians have started to feel guilty. The former President Obasanjo who handed over to the incumbent has also in unanimity of opinion, joined other statesmen to advise the president to step down on health ground - seeing this as the proper thing to do in the circumstance.

Despite the continuous call for power to be handed over to the Vice President, the president on his sick bed has remained mute, uttering no words. And his physicians wouldnt want anyone aside his wife to take a peep at his bedside. These have increased the rumour.

The president's supporters say that the sick man can rule the African giant from anywhere! The country’s Attorney General and Minister for Justice Mr Mike Aondakaa (SAN) has continued to lead the players in a hide-and-seek game over President Yar’Adua’s true health condition and the state of the nation. The minister introduced a new twist to the on-going saga by the country’s Attorney General and Minister for Justice Mr Mike Aondakaa (SAN) saying that the bed-ridden President can rule from any part of the world or indeed from his sick bed without violating the Nigerian constitution.

While the waiting game escalates, deep in the oil-rich Niger Delta, the militants have called off their truce by attacking shell facilities as a sign to their warning that they will spare nothing this time around.

The born-again militants have protested the non-payment of their allowances for months. They have so waited for the government to train them to become law-abiding citizens without any action on the part of the government that they are nurturing the idea of returning to the creeks.

Although the unstable polity has provided much of the background needed for the military to intervene, the present set of officer and men of the military seem not to be in rush to assume power. Their Chiefs - the Chief of Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Paul Dike, and the Chief of Army Staff, Lt General Abdurahman Dambazau have restricted the movement of soldiers from their places of service because of "rising tension." The Chiefs while acknowledging that spoilers are trying to infiltrate their ranks, ruled out military intervention saying it will translate to dragging the country back to the dark ages.

There can be no military intervention unless the army steps in. Back in two decades ago, coup d'etat was the normal mode of political change in most member states of the United Nations. Being a specialised and extremely rare form of political activity which should be discouraged.

A vacuum has been created in the Presidency. A generation ago, the terms "military intervention" was synonymous to "conflict resolution" in Nigeria. Unopposed, the military have intervened in the domestic affairs of the country time and time again starting from 1966 to fill the vacuum.

As the the polity heats up, the debate on the appropriateness of a coup has remained on many lips on the streets of Nigeria. This could be dangerous. I think, the military will keep out of this ... for the time being.

It is believed in some quarters that Yar'Adua will be brought home nilly-willy to douse the tension at home. King Abdullah Bin-Abd-al-Aziz Al Saud is said to have released his personal air plane to ferry the Nigerian home. It is not unlikely that King Abdullah who paid for the separation surgery of a pair of Polish conjoined twins will pay the hospital bill of YarAdua.

As politicians continue to rock the boat, the international community is watching to see how the drama will unfold. Politicians should not promote their personal interest at the expense of the collective national interest and public order. It lies in their domain to ensure that the peace of the nation is maintained through credible leadership. The present situation in the country is sensitive and calls for caution. The Nigeria Constitution is supreme. It stipulates that the Vice President should take over state affairs in the absence of the President, this should be allowed to take its course. It would not be in the interest of the country for the military to assume rulership.

*Nwosu Chukwuemeka O.

Haaba Communications Limited

Lagos, Nigeria

www.haaba.com