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By Tracy Moses
No fewer than 176 Local Government Areas (LGAs) across 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) have been identified as High flood-risk areas in Nigeria, according to the 2025 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) released by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA).
The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Prof. Joseph Utsev, made this known on Thursday in Abuja during the official unveiling of the 2025 AFO. The annual report, prepared by NIHSA, outlines projected flood risks and aims to guide proactive measures by government agencies, communities, and individuals.
According to the AFO, the High Flood Risk Areas encompass 1,249 communities spread across 176 LGAs in 30 states and the FCT. Additionally, 2,187 communities located in 293 LGAs across all 36 states and the FCT fall within the Moderate Flood Risk category.
At the official unveiling of the 2025 AFO, themed “Flood Resilience: Focusing on Communities’ Preparedness and Adaptive Strategies for Flood Management,” the Minister highlighted a concerning forecast for several regions in Nigeria.
According to the projections, a total of 666 communities across 52 LGAs in 14 states have been identified as high flood-risk zones for the months of April, May, and June. The threat escalates mid-year, with 549 communities in 114 LGAs across 30 states expected to face significant flood risks during July, August, and September. The last part of the year is not exempt either, as 489 communities in 56 LGAs within 13 states are projected to experience high flood levels between October and November.
In addition to these high-risk areas, the outlook also anticipates moderate flood impacts. Between April and June, 445 communities in 116 LGAs across 24 states may be affected. The number rises sharply from July to September, with 1,458 communities in 271 LGAs across 33 states expected to face moderate flood incidents. For the final part of the year, October and November, moderate flooding is projected in 1,473 communities located in 171 LGAs across 26 states.
The Minister stressed the importance of preparedness and resilience-building, urging communities, state governments, and relevant stakeholders to take proactive measures to mitigate the potential damage.
According to Utev, flash and urban flooding are expected to impact major cities across the country due to increasing rainfall intensities. He attributed this threat not only to climate change but also to the poor management of water infrastructure, including neglected drainage systems, obstructed waterways, and the absence of effective flood resilience structures.
The minister emphasized that flooding continues to be one of the most destructive natural disasters facing Nigeria, with its frequency and severity on the rise due to climate change.
To tackle these growing challenges, he explained that the 2025 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) has been carefully designed with three distinct sections. The first offers an overview of the projected flood scenarios for the year, providing forecasts to aid in preparedness. The second focuses on strategies for flood risk communication, aiming to ensure that relevant information reaches communities in ways that prompt effective action. The final section outlines key activities, measures, and programs intended to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptation efforts, especially in communities most at risk.
He cited High-intensity rainfall, poor maintenance of drainage systems and waterways, and the absence of critical flood-resilience infrastructure as the primary causes of recurring floods in Nigeria. Ustev, a key official, emphasized that flooding remains one of the most destructive natural disasters in the country. He warned that climate change is intensifying both the frequency and severity of these events, making them an ever-growing threat.
In response, the ministry has unveiled the 2025 AFO, structured to enhance national preparedness. The outlook is organized into three thematic areas. The first, Flood Forecast, offers a general overview of anticipated flood conditions across the country. The second, Flood Risk Communication, is aimed at guiding how flood-related information is shared to ensure timely responses from communities. Finally, the third section, Flood Mitigation and Adaptation, outlines practical measures and programmes to reduce flood risks, especially in vulnerable regions.
Permanent Secretary in the ministry, Richard Pheelangwah, stressed the urgency of proactive measures, urging stakeholders to act swiftly. “This outlook isn’t just a set of figures, it’s a call to protect lives and livelihoods,” he stated.
In a noteworthy advancement, the Director General and CEO of the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, announced that the 2025 forecast now identifies specific communities at risk, rather than only mapping entire local government areas. According to Mohammed, this year’s outlook takes a more holistic approach by evaluating not just locations, but also how flooding may affect critical sectors like health, agriculture, education, and infrastructure.
He credited the enhanced accuracy of the 2025 outlook to technological advancements, consistent stakeholder collaboration, and improved coordination between agencies. “Our goal is to turn flood data into real-time decisions that can drive stronger, community-level resilience,” he added.