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By Daniel Adaji
Nigeria is projected to record a current account surplus of just $2.64bn by 2030—a sharp decline from the $17.1bn expected in 2024. This significant drop raises concerns over the fiscal pressures the next administration may inherit, three years into its tenure.
Economist Shadrach Israel warned, “This level of surplus is far too narrow for a country of Nigeria’s size and import needs. It means the incoming government will likely inherit tighter external buffers, limited room for capital-intensive projects, and greater dependence on foreign borrowing.”
The current account balance—representing the difference between national savings and investment—is a critical barometer of external financial health. A shrinking surplus signals weakening foreign exchange reserves, increasing pressure on the naira, and a potential erosion of investor confidence.
Historically, Nigeria’s current account performance has mirrored fluctuations in oil prices, global demand, and domestic fiscal management. In 2005, the country recorded its highest surplus at $36.5bn. While the early 2000s were marked by strong surpluses, recent years have seen a steady decline, reflecting persistent structural weaknesses.
According to Pointblank News analysis of International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, Nigeria’s current account rose from a $5.18bn surplus in 1980 to a record high in 2005 before entering a prolonged period of instability. The surplus stood at $16.8bn in 2004 and $29.1bn in 2008 but has since trended downward.
The balance dipped to just $0.91bn in 2014, followed by a steep deficit of $15.44bn in 2015. Another sharp fall occurred in 2020, with a $15.99bn deficit attributed largely to the global pandemic and plummeting oil prices.
A modest recovery began in 2021, leading to a projected surplus of $17.1bn in 2024. However, projections beyond that year are less optimistic. From 2025 to 2030, Nigeria’s surplus is expected to decline steadily, falling from $12.95bn in 2025 to just $2.64bn by 2030. While still technically in surplus, this trend suggests mounting vulnerabilities in the country’s external position.
Despite these worrying projections, Nigeria’s economic managers recently secured renewed global confidence in the country’s reform agenda.
Nigeria’s economic team returned from the 2025 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., where they successfully showcased the country’s structural reforms and investment outlook.
At the heart of these engagements was a drive to attract capital inflows and reinforce Nigeria’s commitment to sustainable change.
Finance Minister Wale Edun and Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso led discussions with multilateral institutions and private investors, highlighting reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
“These engagements confirmed the strong global appetite for investing in Nigeria’s future. There was broad recognition that Nigeria’s reforms were the most credible path to economic prosperity,” Edun said.
Top officials from the IMF, World Bank, International Finance Corporation (IFC), and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) pledged support, including commitments for infrastructure investments and development funding from partners like the Gates Foundation.
President of the World Bank Group, Ajay Banga, lauded Nigeria’s structural reform efforts, particularly in agriculture, health, tourism, and infrastructure, signalling readiness to back the country’s transition with targeted investments.
At a separate forum at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, Cardoso emphasised the turning point achieved, reporting that Nigeria’s foreign reserves had risen to over $38bn—enough to cover nearly ten months of imports.
He also highlighted that in 2024, Nigeria recorded a balance of payments surplus of $6.83bn, the strongest in many years, driven by improved capital inflows and higher exports.
Cardoso credited these achievements to disciplined reforms, including the adoption of a market-determined exchange rate system, which has helped stabilize the naira.
However, he warned that inflation remains a significant threat, emphasizing that monetary policy would remain focused on reducing inflation to single digits sustainably.
Meanwhile, the IMF has repeatedly cautioned that countries like Nigeria must act urgently to build fiscal resilience.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stressed during the Spring Meetings that expanding the tax base and implementing technology-driven tax reforms were critical to Nigeria’s long-term stability.
“Technology offers tremendous opportunities to strengthen revenue collection. When deployed effectively, it can reduce leakages, increase efficiency, and promote fairness,” Georgieva said.
Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria remains dangerously exposed to energy price shocks. Domestic production constraints, subsidy regimes, and limited non-oil export growth have continued to erode the country’s external buffers.
Recognizing this, the IMF also urged Nigeria and its African peers to boost intra-regional trade, dismantle infrastructure bottlenecks, and learn from more integrated markets like ASEAN.
“If Africa can remove these hurdles, it can unlock massive economic opportunities,” Georgieva noted.
Still, both Edun and Cardoso acknowledged that reforms must be sustained beyond initial gains.
“The reforms are not easy, but they are delivering results,” Cardoso said. “We have moved from a position of vulnerability toward one of growing strength.”
As 2030 approaches, Nigeria’s narrowing current account surplus signals that economic policy will likely become a central issue in the next political cycle. Analysts argue the incoming administration must prioritize diversification, fiscal discipline, and strengthening non-oil sectors to navigate the looming external pressures.
“Nigeria is approaching a financial crossroads. The next administration won’t just need bold ideas—it’ll need economic courage,” Israel stated.
Ultimately, the next government will inherit more than just political power—it will inherit a ticking financial clock, with little room for error.