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By Lizzy Chirkpi
As the political clock ticks toward the 2027 general elections, President Bola Tinubu finds himself facing not just the predictable opposition from rival parties, but an unprecedented rebellion within his own camp.
Hirherto loyal allies, embittered political heavyweights, and rising opposition leaders are converging into a formidable front,
threatening to change the course of Nigeria’s elections and possibly jeopardize Tinubu’s chances for a second term.
This special report traces the evolving coalition of dissent, defection, and desperation that now surrounds the presidency, with insider accounts and direct statements from key political players.
Barely two years into his first term, President Tinubu is already in full campaign mode. Officially endorsed as the ruling party’s sole 2027 flagbearer.
His party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is presenting a picture of unity but behind that facade, familiar faces are turning away or worse still, turning against.
Less than two years into his tenure, President Tinubu has received the All Progressives Congress (APC)’s official nod to seek re-election. At its national summit on May 22, the party declared him the “unquestionable leader and only choice for 2027.” But the endorsement masked a roiling undercurrent of betrayal and disenchantment.
Meanwhile, there have been reports of the APC granting automatic tickets to all its members holding elective positions. However, the party has denied the reports suggesting it has granted automatic tickets to all current members of the National Assembly, labeling the information as “fake news.”
In a statement released Tuesday, 23 June 2025 by the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, APC urged its members and the public to disregard the reports, attributing it to false news.
“The report is FAKE NEWS and should be disregarded in its entirety as it did not emanate from our great Party,”
Meanwhile, Senator Ali Ndume had also criticized the move regarding reports of potential automatic tickets for incumbent lawmakers, warning that such moves could alienate party loyalists.
“When the rumour came that National Assembly members might get automatic tickets, the party denied it. So, who will be the foot soldiers? You cannot rely on governors alone,” he said.
El-Rufai Fallout with President Tinubu/APC
Leading the internal mutiny is Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, the former Kaduna State governor and a once-prominent Tinubu ally. He was fundamental to Tinubu winning elections in the north. A founding member of the coalition that brought APC to power in 2015, he threw in the towel Monday, March 10, in a letter he personally signed, citing irreconcilable differences.
“As a founding member of the All-Progressives Congress (APC), I have fond memories of working with other compatriots to negotiate the merger of political parties that created the APC. It had been my hope since 2013 that my personal values and that of the APC will continue to align up to the time I choose to retire from politics.
He continued, “As a loyal party man, I worked to help secure the APC’s election victories in 2015, 2019 and 2023. I was one of the many governors elected on the party’s platform in 2015 and 2019, that stood for certain democratic and progressive principles to advance nation-building. My eight-year tenure in Kaduna State was devoted to implementing progressive policies to advance human development in education and healthcare, as well as expand infrastructure, promote equality of opportunity, create jobs and attract investments. These records count for little in the current APC that has castrated its organs and treated its membership with contempt in the last two years. I find this no longer acceptable,” he decried.
In February 2025 he said the relationship between President Bola Tinubu and the north had deteriorated less than two years into his administration, warning that he may be given the Goodluck Jonathan treatment ahead of the 2027 elections. El-Rufai made the statement in a post on his verified X handle, titled, “2027: South West, Tinubu’s supporters playing with fire – Part 1.”
Also leading the revolt is Salihu Mohammed Lukman, former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West), who resigned in protest earlier this year. Speaking to during an interview Lukman said:
“President Tinubu has reduced the APC to a vehicle for patronage. The party organs are comatose. He runs it like an emperor,” he said.
Lukman recently published a pamphlet titled “The Death of Internal Democracy”, which is now being widely circulated among northern APC stakeholders.
Ndume, a former Chief Whip of the Senate also expressed discontent over developments in the country under his party the APC.
While speaking on a national television show raised concern over the widespread hardship and disconnect of the reality on ground.
“We are not learning our lesson,” he said, pointing to a pattern of overconfidence within the ruling party.
“I pity Mr. President. Even though he once said this is not the time for campaigns, look around, the campaigning has already started under the guise of endorsements.”
Defections in the National Assembly
The Nigerian 10th National Assembly has indeed witnessed a gale of defection, particularly from opposition parties to the APC in the past few months. This trend has become a major talking point in Nigerian politics, raising concerns about the state of the opposition and the implications for the 2027 general elections.
The APC has significantly strengthened its majority in the Senate. As of recent reports, the APC holds about 68 seats, while the PDP has declined to 30. Other parties like the Labour Party, NNPP, SDP, and APGA hold a much smaller number of seats. Notable defections include three PDP senators from Kebbi State (Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki) and Senator Sumaila Kawu (NNPP, Kano South) to the APC.
The mass defection from Kebbi and Kano States underscores the shifting political landscape within the National Assembly. The movement highlights the ongoing challenges likely to be faced by the ADC in maintaining its political cohesion. The senators’ endorsement of President Tinubu’s agenda also signals a potential realignment of political forces, as the APC seeks to consolidate its majority in the legislative body.
Similarly, Sheriff Oborevwori, the current governor of Delta State, made headlines on April 23, 2025, when he defected from the PDP to the APC.
Delta, known for its oil wealth and strategic importance, has been a PDP stronghold since 1999. Oborevwori’s move, accompanied by his predecessor Ifeanyi Okowa, signals a major political shift. Okowa, who was the PDP’s vice-presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, emphasised the need for Delta State to align with the Federal Government to unlock development opportunities. This defection is seen as a turning point in the state’s political trajectory.
Some opposition governors are reportedly being courted to join the APC. This move is aimed at preventing a broad coalition of opposition parties, similar to the one formed before the 2015 elections, which successfully unseated an incumbent president. The strategy recognises that governors typically control their party’s structures within their states and possess significant influence to sway and mobilise support for their chosen parties and candidates.
Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Pastor Umo Eno, who decamped from the PDP to the APC has long before now declared his support for President Bola Tibunu’s second-term bid explaining that Tinubu’s commitment to national development through critical infrastructure projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal highway was what made him to endorse the president. ,
“Mr. President has approved and embarked on this audacious project that is set to unlock our economic potentials, especially for coastal communities. This initiative aligns with his Renewed Hope Agenda and deserves to be completed under his leadership, ” he said a few months ago.
The embattled Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara, who is currently suspended, is alleged to have privately met with President Tinubu in the United Kingdom. Speculation is rife that, given his current political predicament, Fubara might yield to pressure to defect to the APC.
The Opposition Coalition: A New Political Force?
All over the world, opposition parties play a major role in shaping the policies and activities of the ruling party to ensure they remain accountable to the people. The PDP, which is the main opposition expected to challenge the ruling APC, has failed woefully. Over the years, the PDP has continued to weaken, becoming less effective and unable to fulfill its expected roles.
The emergence of a coalition has sparked mixed reactions among citizens. Some view the ADC as a group of lightweight, disgruntled politicians unlikely to unseat the APC. However, others remain optimistic, believing that with experienced leaders like former Senate President David Mark at the helm, Tinubu’s hold on Aso Rock could be challenged and potentially end by 2027.
The ADC, considered a marginal party, undergoing a political transformation under the temporary leadership of former Senate President David Mark, it has become a magnet for disillusioned powerbrokers and opposition leaders. Mark, while speaking at the coalition unveiling event in Abuja on July 18, 2025, declared:
“This is not about ADC alone. It is about saving Nigeria from becoming a one-party dictatorship. Within two years of this administration coming into power, it has hijacked all democratic institutions, sending our country on a creeping descent into total civilian dictatorship.”
The ADC-led coalition is spearheaded by several political heavyweights: Atiku Abubakar, PDP stalwart and former vice president; Peter Obi, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate; Rotimi Amaechi, former Governor of Rivers State and former Minister of Transportation, who previously aligned with the APC (serving under Buhari) but is now part of the coalition; Rauf Aregbesola, former Governor of Osun State and immediate past Minister of Interior, a long-time ally of President Tinubu and member of the APC, now serving as interim National Secretary of the ADC; Gabriel Suswam, former Governor of Benue State and ex-Senator, previously PDP, now among the coalition’s key figures; Dino Melaye, former Senator and House of Representatives member, who returned to the PDP after a brief stint in the APC and is now supporting the coalition via the ADC; and Dele Momodu, veteran journalist and PDP chieftain, a vocal critic of the current administration and ardent supporter of the ADC coalition.
Other notable members of the coalition includes: Bukola Saraki (former Governor of Kwara and Senate President; PDP), Abubakar Malami (former Attorney-General; APC background Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP founder and Kano strongman), among others.
Multiple sources confirmed to Pointblanknews.com that high-level meetings have taken place in London, Abuja, and Kano all aimed at selecting a single, consensus presidential candidate by June 2026. Peter Obi has framed his participation in ethical terms.
Addressing youth in Enugu, he said:
“Politics, for me, is not about position, it is about purpose. We must build a coalition against hunger, poverty, and corruption.”
However, Obi’s appearance at an ADC event in July 2025 caused rifts within the Labour Party. The party’s National Chairman, Julius Abure, issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Obi to clarify his position.
“Our movement cannot be reduced to a bargaining chip,” Abure said. “We need clarity from Mr. Obi.”
Although Atiku resigned from the PDP, he remains a central force, despite murmurs that his repeated candidacies are alienating younger voters. There’s talk of rotating the presidency, perhaps Obi as flagbearer, with a northern VP might just be the icing on the cake. But if Atiku insists, expect a serious blowback.
Former House of Representatives Minority Leader, Hon. Farouk Adamu Aliyu had dismissed the proposed merger of political parties with the main aim of unseating President Bola Tinubu in 2027. Aliyu says it’s a dead-on -arrival project.
Speaking in an interview on national television, Farouk dismissed the insinuations that the North has rejected Tinubu or that former President Buhari never supported the present president in 2023.
According him; “My first reaction when I heard there could be a merger of political parties with the sole aim of unseating the President was laughter. I’m still laughing actually. It is a huge joke. While I agree that it is their right to dream big, I think they themselves know they are jokers. How can you unseat a President that is working and getting results?
“The merger which unseated the PDP was meticulously planned for years and deftly executed.
“Before that coalition, the then Action Congress (AC)and Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) especially , were active opposition parties. The opposition was vibrant and put the government of Jonathan constantly on its toes. When the merger came, the All Progressive Congress (APC) came to life. We provide alternatives to Nigerians . We provided sane and better policies to Nigerians. Whatever the government of the day did wrong got corrected by us. We outlined our alternatives and Nigerians trusted us. The new party began to fester.
“Today, the opposition parties are sleeping. They have no knowhow . They think it is easy to form a coalition to unseat a performing government?” He questioned.
The Northern Discotomy: Tinubu’s Base Wobbles
The President’s traditional base in the North is now far from secure. Resentment is festering among northern elites, especially over perceived marginalization and lack of inclusion in Tinubu’s inner circle.
A particularly tense episode occurred at the APC North-East Caucus meeting in Maiduguri, where tempers flared over whether Vice President Kashim Shettima would remain on the 2027 ticket.
As reported, Shettima’s Kingman Abba Goni warned during that meeting that if the VP is dropped, then the APC should be ready to face the music. “If Shettima is dropped, many of us are out. “We supported Tinubu in 2023. We will not be humiliated in 2027.”
Kashim Shettima, the current Vice President (VP), is from Borno State in the Northeast. His selection in 2023 was crucial for building Northern support for Bola Tinubu, who hails from the South-West. Abba Goni’s warning implies that Shettima is not just a VP, but a regional and political representation of the Northeast within the Tinubu government. Dropping Shettima would be seen as a betrayal of the region’s loyalty, especially since they delivered strong electoral support in 2023. In 2023, Tinubu (a Southern Muslim) choosing Shettima (a Northern Muslim) was controversial due to the Muslim-Muslim ticket, but it was tolerated by many in the North because Shettima is one of their own. Removing Shettima in 2027 could be seen as an insult or marginalization of the North-East and particularly Borno, which has long been underrepresented at the highest levels of government.
Tinubu’s Gameplan: Carrots, Sticks, and Political Poaching
The ruling APC which currently controls the federal government and 23 states, is grappling with deepening internal rifts. Intensifying factional disputes, allegations of imposed leadership, and lingering power struggles are threatening the party’s cohesion as it heads toward the 2027 general elections.
Crisis-hit chapters are Lagos, Rivers, Delta, Bayelsa, Benue, and Akwa Ibom; these states have drawn the attention of the national leadership, prompting intervention in a bid to restore order. Perhaps, if these issues are not unresolved, they could significantly erode the APC’s political strength and electoral prospects.
Despite the turbulence, President Tinubu is not without strategy. His inner circle has adopted a ‘divide and rule’ approach offering ministerial appointments, federal contracts, and automatic return tickets to governors and legislators willing to defect or realign.
While the ADC gains momentum, both the PDP and Labour Party are battling internal divisions as well.
In the PDP, a generational split is widening between Atiku loyalists even though he recently tendered his resignation in the party he once contested to be President of the country. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo who is also warming to contest for the number one seat of the country has reportedly declined to endorse the coalition without clearer terms.
“We support unity, but we won’t be swallowed whole,” said PDP spokesperson Debo Ologunagba.
In the Labour Party, Peter Obi’s cross-platform overtures have created uncertainty. But his media aide, Valentine Obienyem, said: “Mr. Obi is in talks with everyone. His goal is accountability, not ambition.”
As the 2027 election looms, political analysts outline three potential trajectories: First, there are permutations whether Tinubu will retain control despite the internal dissent within the APC folds. A fragmented opposition might pave the way for a second-term victory for President Tinubu.
Secondly, the ADC coalition uniting behind one candidate potentially Obi or Atiku and presents Tinubu with his most serious challenge yet could make the anticipated decision.
Also, the institutional crackdown on opposition figures with the use of state security and anti-graft agencies to suppress dissenting voices through the instrumentality of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and Department of State Services (DSS) raids on defectors might be another gimmick by the Tinubu-led administration to silence opposing voices. Recently, former governor of Sokoto State, Senator Aminu Tambuwal was held hostage by the anti graft agency over corruption allegations but many Nigerians described his arrest as a witchhunt because of his political affiliation with the ADC and this has already sparked allegations of political targeting.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) while reacting to the incident alleged that the Commission operates like a political hit squad for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), deployed to fight government critics and opposition figures, thereby achieving what the government cannot achieve through public debate.
According to Atiku, “The reality unfolding before us today is that the Tinubu administration, as with other aspects, has objectified the fight against corruption as a political tool to coerce opposition leaders into the ruling party.
“We are living witnesses to a growing trend where the state and its operators have assumed the roles of a bully by making corruption and the fight against it a political agenda.”