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Daniel Adaji
Nigeria’s exports to the United States fell by N940.98bn in the first nine months of 2025, as higher US tariffs and weakening market conditions squeezed demand for Nigerian goods, official data have shown.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that Nigeria shipped goods worth N3.65tn to the US between January and September 2025, down from N4.59tn in the same period of 2024.
The decline represents a 20.5 per cent drop year-on-year and underscores mounting pressure on one of Nigeria’s most important trading relationships.
The export slide coincided with Washington’s rollout of a so-called “reciprocal” tariff regime. Under the policy, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent, effective August 7, 2025. While crude oil exports were largely spared, the higher duty applied to a wide range of non-oil products, raising costs for US buyers and dampening demand.
With crude shipments relatively insulated, non-oil exports absorbed most of the shock, dragging down Nigeria’s overall export earnings from the US market.
Trade balance swings into deficit
The nine-month data reveal a sharp reversal in Nigeria–US trade flows.
In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria exported N4.59 ltn worth of goods to the US and imported N3.01tn, posting a trade surplus of N1.57tn. By the same period in 2025, exports had fallen to N3.65tn, while imports surged to N6.80tn, pushing the trade balance into a deficit of about N3.15tn.
Quarterly figures show that exports started the year on a firmer footing before deteriorating rapidly. Shipments to the US stood at N1.54tn in the first quarter of 2025, slipped to N1.36tn in the second quarter, and plunged to N743.63bn in the third quarter. The 45.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter collapse in the third quarter marked the steepest contraction during the period.
Imports moved in the opposite direction, climbing from N1.42tn in the first quarter to N2.16tn in the second quarter, and then jumping to N3.22tn in the third quarter, intensifying pressure on Nigeria’s external trade position.
On a year-on-year basis, exports to the US grew by 17.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024, but the momentum quickly faded. Exports fell by 14.3 per cent in the second quarter and slumped by 56.0 per cent in the third quarter, reflecting weaker demand and tougher trading conditions.
The sustained downturn explains why the United States dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by the second and third quarters of 2025, even as it remained one of the country’s largest sources of imports.
Crude oil still leads, basket narrows
Product-level data from the NBS show that crude petroleum oils continued to dominate Nigeria’s exports to the US in early 2025. In the first quarter, crude shipments were valued at N779.38bn, followed by urea at N240.17bn and kerosene-type jet fuel at N214.30bn.
Other exports included petroleum gases in gaseous state worth N95.97bn and standard quality cocoa beans valued at N58.84bn.
By the third quarter, however, Nigeria’s export basket had narrowed sharply. Shipments consisted mainly of lower-value items such as flours and meals of soya beans worth N23.60bn, cocoa powder preparations valued at N36.83m, and technically specified natural rubber worth N5.03bn.
Why this matters
The N941bn drop in Nigeria’s exports to the United States is not just a trade statistic; it signals deeper economic risks for the country.
It hits foreign exchange earnings. The US has long been one of Nigeria’s most valuable export markets. A sharp fall in dollar inflows from this corridor tightens foreign exchange supply, adds pressure on the naira, and complicates monetary management.
It also widens Nigeria’s trade imbalance. As exports to the US fell and imports surged, a N1.57 trillion surplus flipped into a N3.15 trillion deficit within a year. That swing increases Nigeria’s dependence on external financing and weakens its overall trade position.
The drop exposes Nigeria’s vulnerability to policy shifts abroad. The tariff increase from 14 per cent to 15 per cent shows how changes in US trade policy can quickly disrupt Nigerian exports, especially non-oil products that lack strong price competitiveness. It underlines the risk of relying on a few markets and a narrow export base.
Additionally, t undermines diversification efforts. Non-oil exports were the hardest hit, precisely at a time when Nigeria is trying to reduce dependence on crude oil. Losing ground in a high-value market like the US slows progress on industrialisation, value addition, and job creation.