election at 84 million with the North West leading the pack as usual with
20.2 million, followed by the South West with 16.3 million registered
voters.
The thumb-print columns on the ballot-papers have been compressed further
by INEC to accommodate the very many parties duly registered and what that
means in essence, is that there will be many more invalid votes than
usual. We may witness a very high rate of rerun elections this year.
Considering previous election turn-out, voter enthusiasm and current
political climate in the 36 states, this is what is expected to happen in
this Saturday’s Presidential election subject to it being free and fair.
NORTH-WEST
President Buhari will clinch the majority of votes in this region.Atiku
will take it down to the wire in Kaduna. Asides the secured votes in the
Christian-dominated southern part of the state, he will also grab a
handful in other places due to the quite decent PDP structure on ground.
While Kano ranks alongside Kebbi and Katsina as states Buhari is
guaranteed a clear win, Atiku should get close to 30% of the votes cast
due to the Kwankwasiyya machinery working in his favour. Despite the
killings in Zamfara, Buhari will surprise many by pulling more than half
of the probable 600,000 votes on Saturday. The PDP is totally in control
of neighbouring Sokoto state however and Atiku will conveniently pull
about 500,000 of the 800,000 votes likely to be cast.
The under-whelming performance of the incumbent Jigawa state governor has
allowed Sule Lamido and the PDP to endear themselves to the people and
though this is highly debatable, Atiku will win Jigawa narrowly.
Verdict: Buhari 6m, Atiku 3.7m
SOUTH-WEST
The South-Western electorate is the most liberal and open-minded in
Nigeria. Whether we like it or not, we have not out-grown politics of
ethnicity and religion. The major thing Buhari has going for him in the
core northern states is an unerasable belief that he is a honourable man
while every other person, being Muslim regardless, is a ‘worldly’ fellow.
The South West have no such problem. Tinubu has lost some degree of
respect outside Lagos and the APC can no longer bank on his influence
across the whole region. It will be a close contest in most of the states
except of course Lagos; the capital of Tinubu’s crumbling empire where
Buhari should enjoy a comfortable victory. The APC presidential campaign
team were stoned in Ogun just days ago. With Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Kashamu
Buruji and none other than President Obasanjo all working for an Atiku
victory, it is already in the bag. The PDP will win Ekiti, Osun and Ondo
by slim margins but feelers indicate they will lose Gov. Ajimobi’s Oyo
state.
After all said and done in the South West, the PDP are likely to get about
3 million votes in total while the APC should get about 500,000 less.
Verdict: Atiku 3m, Buhari 2.5m
NORTH-EAST
The average person in Yobe, Borno and Adamawa doesn’t care whether or not
the Buhari government has entered into an agreement with Boko Haram to
release school girls or cease activities for a while, they just know the
insurgents haven’t been half as active as they were before President
Buhari came into office. Add the fact that there is virtually no PDP
structure in Borno and Yobe and you have why Buhari should take home
roughly 400,000 votes of the total number of 600,000 votes in Borno and
more than half of the 500,000 votes in Yobe. The APC has a formidable
structure in Atiku’s home state of Adamawa with almost all the relevant
political figures united in their love for Buhari. Of the 700,000 votes
expected to be cast, Buhari should win by a margin of about 100,000.
Everyone expects Atiku to win Gombe because of the strong PDP presence
there but Buhari is still very much loved by the masses there and he
should win. Bauchi has the largest number of voters in the North East and
in addition to the people being dissatisfied with the state governor’s
performance, they are also the most enlightened in the region. They
understand fully well that the question at this juncture is whether or not
Nigerians deserve better. The state has a history of impressive voter
turn-out and we may just see half of the registered 2 million plus voters
cast their ballot. Of that million, Atiku’s victory should be by a margin
of about roughly 200,000.The biggest Atiku margin in this region should
come from Taraba. The former Minister of Women Affairs, Aisha Jummai
Alhassan, was the APC in the state and she migrated with all the party
excos in the 169 wards in the state to the UDP. She is the first minister
in recent memory to openly endorse her President’s rival before vacating
office when she said she was for Atiku in 2019. It would surprise a lot of
people if Buhari gets more than 100,000 of the likely 600,000 expected to
turn up.
Verdict: Buhari 2.3m, Atiku 1.5m
SOUTH-EAST
The APC has tried gaining a foothold in the South South and South East by
enlisting some big names in the region but it really won’t count. These
people were always going to vote against a man who promised delivering
dividends according to how he was voted after his last victory. Talk more
one who has performed worse than any President we have ever had.
The Vice-Presidential candidate of the PDP, Peter Obi is an Ibo and at the
very least, 5 million of the 10 million registered voters in the South
East are expected to cast their votes this weekend. Of that 5 million, it
would take a miracle for Buhari to get 400,000 votes.
Verdict: Atiku 4.7m, Buhari 300,000
SOUTH-SOUTH
Despite the APC having presence in some South South states notably Rotimi
Amaechi’s Rivers and Senator Godswill Akpabio’s Akwa Ibom, Atiku is
expected to get about a million votes while his opponent will struggle to
get past the 100,000 mark and in Akwa Ibom, the PDP should conveniently
secure above 900,000 of the about 1 million expected to be cast.
Verdict: Atiku 6.6m, Buhari 400,000
NORTH-CENTRAL
The North-Central has the 3rd largest voters registered and it is more or
less the region that erases all doubts as to an Atiku victory in a free
and fair contest. Of the over 1.6 million registered voters in Kogi,
600,000 are expected to turn out and more than half of that number will
vote the PDP. Adducable to not just Buhari’s non-performance but the
unpopularity of Gov. Yahaya Bello outside his Ebira tribe in Kogi state.
Plateau is expected to hand over 800,000 of about 1 million votes cast on
Saturday to Atiku and about 500,000 of the 600,000 likely to vote in Benue
will do so for Atiku as well. The state underwent its worst security
crisis in recent memory under President Buhari and his administration has
been widely accused of being insensitive to their predicament. Nasarawa
has about 1.6 million registered voters and about half that numbers are
expected to turn out. It will be tight but the PDP should win it by a
narrow margin. About 600,000 voters are likely to turn out on election day
based on antecedents in Senate President Bukola Saraki’s Kwara state and
the PDP are expected to win it by a 50,000-100,000 margin. Niger is really
close and could go to any of the 2 parties but it appears the APC will
clinch majority of the 700,000 votes cast on that day.
Verdict: Atiku 2.7m, Buhari 1.5m
Final Verdict: Atiku: 25.3m, Buhari:10m
Umar Sa’ad Hassan is a lawyer based in Kano.
Twitter:@Alaye_100