As the February 2015 elections approach, one thing is clear. Things cannot continue as they are. Swathes of Nigeria’s territory are under attack from rebels forces, the Nigerian army, centered in the North East theatre of war, are fighting a war where they are without weapons (or inadequately armed) and are compelled to follow orders from a corrupt and inept military command. The economy long threatened by supply and demand side headwinds is starting its rocky decline which is likely to be exacerbated by the incompetent application of economically constricting fiscal and monetary policies. The Shale oil revolution has finally deprived Nigeria of its biggest end market for its oil and its geographic location has placed it at a competitive disadvantage when attempting to replace the U.S with China or India (as a replacement destination for Nigeria’s oil). Despite the protestation of surprise from our “sophisticated” co-ordinating minister for the economy, the fall in the price of oil is the clear manifestation of the glut in the supply of oil over the last couple of years allied with weak economic conditions in many major oil consuming countries over the same time period.
With this reality, Nigeria is faced with a yearning for change. In embarking on change it has opted for an election that will boil down to a choice between President Jonathan and a possible President Buhari.
President Jonathan is allegedly from the ijaw tribe of the Niger delta. It is home to one of the few tribes along Nigeria’s oil coast that feeds the entire nation (through the allocation of foreign exchange receipts from the sale of oil amongst the various levels of Federal, state and local government).
President Jonathan has been accused of being sectional and tribalistic. In all honesty, he has not been tribalistic in favour of the ijaw people (with whom he is allegedly deemed to share ethnicity). His clannishness and favouritism has been enjoyed by an entirely different ethnic group that has appropriated all government positions relating to the financial regulation of the economy. The Niger delta rivers and way of life has been damaged by oil spills and exploitation and the Niger delta people rightly made a decision that it had had enough!!
The alternative to President Jonathan is a possible President Buhari. This kind of change is a change towards the past. In analyzing the challenger, one needs to look at his previous actions as Head of state as an indicator of his future actions. His previous actions indicates that he represents a number impulses within the Nigerian state. He is also a very sectional and clannish person (especially in favour of his Fulani brethren). In 2000, he led a delegation of armed northerners to the Oyo state government house to protest the alleged killings of Fulani herdsmen in Oyo state. A man clearly uncomfortable with working within the law under a democratic government, he chose to raise his own militia in order to intimidate the then Oyo state government instead of using his moral authority to pressure the police into investigating the matter. That action from a former head of state is very telling. At other points in time, he was reported to have stated that it will take decades for Northerners to regain their pre-eminent position in Nigeria following the changes made to the army in the early 2000’s. No doubt, one of his more subtle policies will be aimed at turning back the clock to the Fulani pre-eminence within Nigeria.
As head of state, Buhari inherited a government faced with similar challenges. His economic prescription against inflation was to get army officers to forcibly open shops belonging to traders and compel the sale of their products at arbitrary prices (which turned out to be well below the cost price of the goods being sold). On the flip side, he oversaw the laying off many members of the armed services and civil servants in order to bring government expenditure in line with government revenues. The Nigerian economy made few consistent improvements under his government.
Reports are abound that he is looking to President Yar Adua’s former economic adviser to lead a team of economic advisers charged with producing an economic blueprint for the Nigerian economy two months to the election and 5 months to the swearing in of his government (in the event of his victory). This indicates that since his first run for office in 2003, he has never given any serious thought to what policies he intends to pursue in order to grow the economy for the long term benefit of the common man he claims to be fighting for. What a contrast to Atiku. A man bogged down with the smell of corruption but had devised one of the most forward thinking economic blueprints of any candidate for the presidency as far back as 2007.
Suffice to say, on matters of economic policy, the Nigerian economy (irrespective of whoever wins and by virtue of the people that currently run the economy (or who may likely run the economy in 2015 under a possible President Buhari)) will be in for a very harsh 4-8 years.
In areas of education, Buhari’s previous government tilted education policy towards science students. His government was at the forefront of making it more difficult for potential undergraduates of law to study law as a first degree. His government wanted to ensure the study of law could only be undertaken by individuals that already had a first degree in another discipline! Whilst the focus on science students was to be commended, it was unclear what the changes to the study of law was intended to achieve! President Jonathan has himself committed Nigeria to supporting science graduates. His post graduate scholarship awards have targeted first class science degree holders.
On issues of security, Buhari’s antecedents marks him out as a clearly more effective commander in chief than the present President Jonathan. That Nigeria has descended into a war in which large parts of the North East has become the playing ground for rebels for the last 5 years means something very drastic and different must be done otherwise the country will undoubtedly implode in the most violent of ways.
The choice for Nigerians will inevitably depend on where one lives. Those in the North East, parts of the North West and the Eastern parts of the North Central, security will undoubtedly be a much more immediate concern. There can only be one wise choice on that issue.
In respect to other parts of Nigeria, their relative standard of living and the strength of the Nigerian economy will be the more immediate concern. Both choices are either incompetent or lacking in foresight on that issue. The current group are likely to be marginally better than its challenger. For those striving to have a government that is less sectional and clannish, I am afraid to say, no change will be forth coming on that issue.
Both the existing President and his challenger are very similar in that respect. Their respective favoured tribe will continue (or start (as the case may be)) to monopolize the political space within Nigeria.
To the Nigerian people, please accept my commiserations. Whatever the choice you make in February, you will definitely (in some form or the other) live to regret it!
Dele Awogbeoba