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By Tracy Moses
The presidency has responded sharply to outgoing African Development Bank (AfDB) President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, who recently asserted that Nigerians are worse off today compared to 1960.
Adesina had claimed that Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 stood at $1,847, while today it is just $824, suggesting that the country has experienced a decline in living standards.
However, in a statement late Sunday night May 4, 2025, the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, countered Adesina’s assertions, claiming that the figures cited by the AfDB President were inaccurate. Onanuga argued that Adesina’s conclusions were based on incorrect data.
The presidency, providing a different perspective, referred to official data which indicates that Nigeria’s GDP was only $4.2 billion in 1960, with a per capita income of $93, based on a population of 44.9 million, far less than the $1,847 per capita figure mentioned by Adesina.
Onanuga further elaborated that Nigeria’s GDP didn’t see significant growth until the 1970s when crude oil revenues began to rise sharply. By 1970, the GDP had grown to $12.55 billion, and by 1975, it stood at $27.7 billion. In 1980, it reached $64.2 billion, and in 1981 it hit $164 billion. Yet, even by 1980, Nigeria’s per capita income was still below $880, only rising to $2,187 in 1981 before falling back to $1,844 in 1982. Following a 2014 rebasing, Nigeria’s GDP per capita reached an all-time high of $3,200.
Onanuga expressed skepticism about the sources behind Adesina’s figures and noted that the key issue lies in the conclusions drawn from them, rather than the numbers themselves.
He pointed out that GDP per capita alone cannot be used to determine whether the living standards of Nigerians have improved since 1960. It is an inadequate measure of quality of life, as it does not reflect wealth distribution, income inequality, or the size of the informal economy. Additionally, GDP figures fail to account for subsistence farming and family-based income transfers, which are significant in many households.
The Special Adviser also emphasized that GDP per capita does not reflect improvements in vital sectors such as healthcare, education, or infrastructure. For example, the accessibility of transportation, including rail and air travel, is significantly better today than in 1960.
Onanuga highlighted that compared to 1960, Nigeria now boasts a greater number of primary, secondary, and tertiary schools, improved road networks, and more medical facilities. He also pointed to the dramatic increase in telecommunication access, with Nigeria now having over 200 million mobile phone users, compared to just 18,724 telephone lines in 1960 for a population of around 45 million.
In addressing the informal economy, Onanuga noted that Nigerian policymakers are aware that official GDP figures may not capture the full scale of the economy, especially as the informal sector could be more significant than the formal economy. This, he argued, is why Dr. Adesina should have taken a more comprehensive view before making his claims.
He further illustrated this with the example of Vodacom’s initial hesitation to enter the Nigerian market in the early 2000s, which was based on a poor forecast of the country’s economic potential. Despite these early doubts, companies like MTN entered the market and proved the predictions wrong. MTN, which continues to grow, recently reported N1 trillion in revenue and an 8.2% increase in subscriptions, serving 84 million users.
Onanuga concluded that no objective observer could claim Nigeria has not made significant progress since 1960. He confidently stated that Nigeria’s GDP today is at least 50 to 100 times higher than it was at independence, and even as we await recalibrations of GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics, the evidence of Nigeria’s growth over the decades is undeniable.h