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Daniel Adaji
Nigeria’s agriculture sector has emerged as the frontrunner in economic activity for the first quarter of 2025, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The report obtained by Pointblank News on Thursday revealed that the March 2025 Composite PMI stood at 52.3 index points, signalling a continued expansion in economic activity for the third consecutive month, with agriculture driving the momentum.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a critical economic indicator that reflects the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing, services, and agriculture sectors.
Compiled from survey responses by over 1,900 purchasing and supply executives across Nigeria, the PMI measures key variables such as output, new orders, employment levels, inventories, and supplier delivery times. A PMI reading above 50 points signifies an expansion in economic activity, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
The PMI is widely regarded as an early signal of business and economic conditions. It offers policymakers, investors, and businesses timely insight into the performance of key sectors before the release of official government data.
In March 2025, the agriculture sector recorded an impressive PMI of 54.7 index points, the highest among the three major sectors surveyed. This marked the sector’s eighth consecutive month of expansion and a significant improvement from 52.3 points in February 2025. The surge was underpinned by notable growth in new orders (55.6), inventories (55.3), general farming activities (54.8), and employment (53.0).
All five subsectors within agriculture – including general farming, fishery, livestock, forestry, and crop production – experienced growth, with Forestry posting the highest expansion. The sector also maintained the lowest input and output price indices, suggesting relatively stable production costs compared to industry and services.
The industry and services sectors also posted expansions in March but trailed agriculture in growth rate and consistency.
The Industry Sector PMI stood at 51.5 points, slightly down from 52.0 in February. While output (52.7), employment (50.8), and raw material inventory (50.8) recorded growth, new orders barely edged above the no-change threshold at 50.4.
Among the 17 sub-sectors surveyed, 9 expanded, with Water Supply, Sewerage & Waste Management leading the pack, while Cement showed the sharpest decline.
The Services Sector recorded a PMI of 51.5, consistent with its February figure. Business activities (51.8), new orders (51.7), employment (51.6), and inventories (50.7) all showed modest growth. Of the 14 sub-sectors monitored, 10 expanded, with Finance & Insurance recording the most significant growth, while Transportation & Warehousing contracted the most.
A comparative look at February and March 2025 reveals that while all three sectors maintained expansion trajectories, agriculture demonstrated the most robust and sustained growth.
From February to March, Agriculture PMI rose from 52.3 to 54.7, Industry PMI dropped slightly from 52.0 to 51.5, and Services PMI remained unchanged at 51.5.
The quarterly performance places agriculture at the forefront of economic recovery and resilience, reflecting strong domestic demand, improved employment, and consistent productivity.
Despite the overall expansion, businesses continue to face input cost pressures, with the input price indices for all sectors surpassing their respective output prices.
The Industry Sector reported the highest input price index (65.5), while Services had the highest output price (60.6). Agriculture remained the least affected, with input and output price indices at 59.5 and 56.0, respectively. This price disparity highlights the need for supply chain efficiency and inflation management to sustain the growth trajectory.
The PMI report for Q1 2025 paints a cautiously optimistic picture of Nigeria’s economic landscape. With agriculture taking the lead in growth and resilience, supported by positive momentum in industry and services, the outlook for the coming months appears promising.
However, persistent cost pressures necessitate proactive measures to safeguard these gains. As Nigeria navigates its economic recovery, the PMI remains a crucial barometer for tracking sectoral health, informing policy, and guiding investment decisions.