Nigeria Faces Uncertain Future as Oil Prices Fall – IMF 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Nigeria faces an uncertain economic future as falling oil prices drop.

In a report released on Friday and obtained by Pointblank News from the IMF website, the Fund said that despite recent reforms, Nigeria remains vulnerable to external shocks due to its dependence on oil revenues.

“The outlook is marked by significant uncertainty. Elevated global risk sentiment and lower oil prices impact the Nigerian economy,” IMF stated.

An IMF team led by Axel Schimmelpfennig visited Lagos and Abuja between April 2 and 15 for discussions under the 2025 Article IV Consultations. During its mission, the team met with top government officials including the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun; Central Bank Governor, Yemi Cardoso; and stakeholders from the private sector and civil society.

The Fund acknowledged reforms implemented by Nigerian authorities, including ending the central bank’s financing of fiscal deficits and removing costly fuel subsidies. However, it cautioned that these gains are yet to translate into broad-based relief.

“Gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians as poverty and food insecurity remain high,” Schimmelpfennig said.

According to the IMF, macroeconomic policies must now focus on building buffers, reducing inflation, and fostering private sector-led growth.

 “A tight monetary policy stance is required to firmly guide inflation down. Announcing a disinflation path to serve as an intermediate target can help anchor inflation expectations,” it stated.

On fiscal policy, the Fund emphasised the importance of responding to lower oil prices with discipline.

“A neutral fiscal stance would support monetary policy to bring down inflation. To safeguard key spending priorities, fiscal savings from the fuel subsidy removal must be channelled to the budget,” the Fund stated.

The IMF urged Nigerian authorities to ensure that budget adjustments protect growth-critical investments and expand cash transfers to households facing food insecurity.

“Adjustments should protect critical, growth-enhancing investment while accelerating and broadening the delivery of cash transfers,” the report noted.

While recognizing the government’s efforts, the IMF stressed that consistent implementation of reforms is vital to shield the economy from shocks and create sustainable growth opportunities.

It said the final report of the mission will be presented to the IMF Executive Board after internal approval