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By Daniel Adaji
Nigeria recorded a contraction in airline seat capacity in December 2025, even as it retained its position as Africa’s fifth-largest aviation market, according to a new industry report.
Recent data from the Aircraft On the Ground (OAG) Monthly Airline Data Updates for the African Market showed that Nigeria had a total of 1.16 million scheduled passenger seats across domestic and international routes in December 2025, down from about 1.20 million seats in the same month of 2024.
The 3.7 per cent year-on-year decline made Nigeria the only country among Africa’s top 10 airline markets to record a drop in total capacity during the period.
Despite the fall, Nigeria still ranked behind Egypt, South Africa, Morocco and Ethiopia, underscoring the scale of its air travel market even amid mounting capacity pressures.
The decline contrasted sharply with developments in other leading African markets, most of which expanded. Egypt strengthened its lead as the continent’s largest airline market, growing capacity to about 2.98 million seats. South Africa followed with roughly 2.60 million seats, while Morocco recorded one of the strongest performances, expanding by more than 13 per cent to over 2.03 million seats. Ethiopia also posted steady growth, reaching 1.38 million seats.
Capacity growth extended beyond the top four. Other countries in Africa’s top 10 airline markets, including Algeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Tunisia and Mauritius, all reported year-on-year increases. Tanzania recorded the fastest expansion, with growth of over 20 per cent, reflecting a broader recovery and expansion trend across African aviation.
The contraction was more pronounced in Nigeria’s domestic market. Although Nigeria ranked as Africa’s second-largest domestic airline market in December 2025, domestic seat capacity fell by 7.5 per cent to 850,420 seats, from 919,400 seats in December 2024, one of the sharpest declines on the continent.
By comparison, South Africa expanded its domestic capacity from 1,686,956 seats to 1,803,097 seats. Kenya grew from 420,534 to 456,500 seats, while Tanzania recorded strong growth from 326,990 to 415,130 seats. In North Africa, Egypt edged up from 382,157 to 391,736 seats, Algeria jumped significantly from 308,039 to 388,731 seats, and Morocco increased from 215,149 to 240,499 seats. Cape Verde posted the fastest domestic growth, surging from 69,493 to 92,924 seats.
Ethiopia’s domestic capacity dipped slightly from 401,972 seats to 389,562 seats, while the Democratic Republic of Congo recorded a steep decline from 142,201 to 101,598 seats.
According to the report, Nigeria’s fall in domestic seat capacity reflects a combination of operational and structural challenges facing local airlines. Aircraft maintenance constraints remain a major issue, as limited Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities force operators to send aircraft abroad for servicing, often keeping planes out of service for extended periods. Although MRO projects by Air Peace, Ibom Air and other operators are underway, they were not yet operational by December 2025, prolonging aircraft downtime.
Other pressures, including bird strikes, high interest rates and limited access to affordable financing, have further constrained fleet availability and expansion, making it difficult for airlines to sustain consistent domestic operations at scale.
Access to dry-lease aircraft also remains limited. As of December 2025, only one Nigerian airline had qualified for dry leasing, leaving most operators dependent on wet leases or expensive aircraft purchases. Dry leases are widely regarded as critical because they offer airlines greater control over operations, scheduling and costs.
Although Nigeria’s removal from the AWG watchlist in October 2024 has begun to improve access to global leasing markets, the report noted that the benefits had yet to translate into increased capacity by the end of 2025.