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By Tracy Moses
A chieftain of the Arewa Consultative Forum, Anthony Sani, has downplayed suggestions that the worsening security situation in Northern Nigeria could significantly erode support for President Bola Tinubu ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Sani spoke against the backdrop of renewed attacks and abductions across several northern states, including Borno, Zamfara, Niger, Plateau and Benue, which have heightened public concern over safety and governance in the region.
On April 9, 2026, gunmen suspected to be members of the Islamic State West Africa Province attacked a military base in Benisheikh, Borno State, killing officers and soldiers, among them the Commander of the 29 Task Force, Brig Gen Oseni Braimah. The incident is one of several recent attacks underscoring persistent insecurity in the North-East and North-West.
The surge in violence has reignited debate among political actors and analysts over its potential electoral implications, particularly in a region that played a decisive role in Tinubu’s 2023 victory.
In recent weeks, some northern political figures have argued that the President risks losing substantial support in the region if the security situation does not improve. Prominent among them is Buba Galadima, who offered a stark assessment of Tinubu’s prospects at the convention of the African Democratic Congress.
“Even if there is no living human being in Nigeria and we bring a corpse in a coffin and put it against President Tinubu, I assure you that that corpse will win the election in 2027,” Galadima declared.
Similarly, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal have repeatedly argued that the administration’s handling of insecurity, especially in the North, could weaken Tinubu’s re-election bid.
Their position draws from a broader political context in which security has historically influenced voter behaviour in the region.
Analysts often point to the 2015 presidential election, when widespread dissatisfaction over the handling of insurgency under then President Goodluck Jonathan contributed to a significant political shift in the North.
However, Sani rejected comparisons between the current situation and the 2015 electoral outcome, insisting that the dynamics are different.
“I do not know whether the rising insecurity will cause northerners to vote against President Bola Tinubu, considering that this insecurity started in 2009.
“What actually attracted Northern angst against President Jonathan was the way he handled Chibok girls incident and not general insecurity in the North,” he told our correspondent.
Sani’s remarks reflect a competing narrative within the region, that while insecurity remains a critical issue, voting decisions may not be shaped solely by current security challenges but also by broader political calculations, historical trends and perceptions of leadership response.
As the 2027 election cycle gradually takes shape, the interplay between security, governance and regional politics is expected to remain a central factor in determining voter sentiment across Northern Nigerian