MY FEAR

BY OLISA AKUKWE
olisaemekaakukwe@yahoo.com
Twitter: @FrankOlisa
I remember the campaigns of 1983. I was in primary school, but my
fascination with politics and leadership was already well and alive. It
was a rally during the early weeks of long vacation, at Ngwo Park, Enugu.
On the dais was the mercurial Chief Vincent Ikeotunye; industrious Chief
C.C. Onoh, debonair Chief Austin Ezenwa and gentleman Chief Alex Ekwueme.
But the major attractions were Chief Emeka Ojukwu, Ikemba Nnewi and the
man he was about to introduce: Alhaji Shehu Aliyu Usman Shagari, the then
executive President of Nigeria. Shagari came to the microphone, with the
characteristic hail of his party, NPN. ‘NPN – Super Power! One nation,
one destiny!’ Thus, he delved into a litany of promises.
My fear is that 32 years after General Buhari aborted that very useful
experience in democracy; Nigeria has failed to become one nation. The
deeper fear is that it can never become one nation, in fact by current and
historical examples; it runs a real and present risk of disintegration.
Except the politics, economics and society is fundamentally restructured.
We are about to approach one year of a government, that was elected by
about 25% of the registered voters.The general motivation for choosing the
current government was change. Unsurprisingly, there was no common
agreement on what this mantra connotes.
However, I am unshakably convinced that Nigeria needs to change or face
its demise. This conviction comes from empirical and anecdotal evidence
that abound, for whoever wishes to be objective.
It was Obafemi Awolowo who once described Nigeria as “… geographic
description”. Permit me to remind us that every country is ‘mere
geographic description’! But some countries have grown to become
nations also. Sadly, Nigeria is not one of them.
Nigeria’s boundary is an artificial creation, left behind by the British
colonialist. It does not correspond to a religious, historical, cultural
or linguistic entity. This is the reality. We have largely lived as a fake
nation, and we know it. No wonder Awo penned those words. Every national
policy from 1960 till date has the shadow of this false ‘nationhood’
written all over it. But we are a REAL country, with all the paraphernalia
of statehood. The greatest impetus the state has is force! And Nigeria has
been kept together by force, rather than by any unifying or over-arching
ideology. There is a philosophy that underlies this forceful union,
though. It is called CORRUPTION. The Economist magazine said that
corruption is the only thing that works in Nigeria.
It is worth pondering the fact that multi-ethnic democracy is the most
difficult form of government to sustain. Add to it a multi-religious twist
and forceful political conjugation, and you will get a rather combustible
mix. We have seen many nations with less fault lines than Nigeria,
collapse.
Take the Austro-Hungarian Empire, for a start. It was a multi-ethnic
nation-state or empire in the 19th century. It had Austria, Hungary,
Czech, Croats, Slovenia, and Italy as ethnic nations making it up. It was
Bohemia in Czech heartland and Hungary with its rich land owners that bore
the economic burden of sustaining the empire. Just like the former Biafran
homeland in Nigeria. The empire inevitably collapsed with rather violent
repercussions. The leaders and regions benefitting from the empire refused
to accept the necessary changes, when it was imperative.
The Soviet empire is another example. Many people have forgotten that
Soviet Union was an amalgam of several ethnic nations including:
Ukrainians, Estonians, Letts, Latvians, Mongolians, some Tartar, Georgians
and the anchor ethnic group – Russians. Communism was the ideological
glue used by Russia to control and exploit the other nations. Sometimes it
can look eerily similar to Hausa-Fulani dominance in Nigeria. That empire,
as we know, collapsed under its own weight.
Yugoslavia is a rather disquieting example. It was a multi-ethnic country
of Serb orthodox Catholics, Slovenia Roman Catholics, Croatians, plus
Kosovo and Bosnia Muslim. They lived in uneasy accord, ensured only by the
authoritarian regime of Tito. By early 1990, after the collapse of
communism, they began to simmer.
Ultimately in December 1990, the DEMOS party of Slovenia won a referendum
for independence from Yugoslavia and announced plan to secede in June
1991. The Croats followed them. The Serbs (the dominant ethnic group in
Yugoslavi) declared war. The rest is common knowledge. Suffice it to say
that there is no Yugoslavia today.
Yugoslavia is very instructive because it was the ‘poster boy’ for
multi-ethnic democracy in Europe! And it collapsed because its dominant
ethnic group was disinclined to restructuring.
In all multi-ethnic countries where such resistance to loose federation
failed, war or bloody strife was the result (Bosnia, Croatia, Georgia,
Rwanda, etc).
Evidence also abound that ethnic nations do rather well, irrespective of
resource base or geographic location and size. Think about Israel, Iran,
Slovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Macedonia, Armenia, etc. These are all
ethnic nations. With the exception of Iran, the rest had to liberate
themselves from a suffocating union.
Nigeria will do well to learn from the abundant lessons of history. I see
a lot of “Titanic” syndrome in Nigeria. The fundamental fault lines of a
multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-religious, and multi-cultural democracy
are not being addressed.
ELECTIONS: It is on record that the greatest flaw of Nigeria’s attempt
at democracy has been elections. The aftermath of the massively rigged
election of 1964 and the even worse chicanery of the 1965 repeated
election in Western region inspired the first coup.
The blatant manipulation of the election of 1983 was the main inspiration
for Gen. Buhari’s coup of 1983. The slumpy bungling of June 12 elections
in 1993, led to the greatest existentialist threat to Nigeria in modern
times. And ultimately Abiola lost his life, besides his mandate.
Under Gen Obasanjo, the country witnessed the most brazen electoral
malpractices. From 1999 to 2007, rigging could no longer define what went
on as elections. The current president, Gen Muhammadu Buhari was twice
thrashed in supervised fraud called elections, under Obasanjo. Buhari
himself said this. He, in fairness, took the matter to the apex court.
They ruled against him in rather controversial rulings. Buhari, though he
accepted the judgement, completely disagreed with it.
Today, Buhari is president, because Dr Jonathan allowed a relatively free
and fair poll. Yet, the man Jonathan is vehemently vilified by all and
sundry in the ruling party.The wrong lessons are being learned by many
youths, the ostensible future leaders. The lesson is ‘Do not sacrifice
your ambition for national unity in Nigeria’. The worst possible
lesson.From the pathos of a multi-ethnic, winner-take-all, vindictive
politics. Today Obasanjo, who twice supervised our most fraudulent
electoral mileu, is Buhari’s envoy. Remember the iceberg.
Election has been, and still is, a major fault line in Nigeria. But we
must salute the landmark achievement and sacrifice of the former
president, irrespective of his other failings.
The other major fault lines in my opinion are corruption and
restructuring. My take is that corruption is more a symptom of a badly
structured and governed country. Where a distant ‘Lord’ milks
resources from a badly neglected ‘vassal’ and redistributes it as he
deems fit. In any society, this will create a pervese incentive –
Corruption. In Niger Delta, the landlord (indigenes) effectively pays rent
to the tenant (federal government). Such is the depth of the deceit.
Nigeria is littered with many underlying policies, which raise my fear of
calamity, if they are not re-visited. I will examine a few of them.
REVENUE FORMULA: I have previously (in a previous article) analyzed how a
north-led government accreted almost all revenues previously reserved for
the regions and states, to the center. The Nigeria revenue generating and
sharing formula is one of its kind in the entire world. You cannot find
any country or nation where just about 6 states out of 36, provide 80%
federal and distributable income.
You can equally not find where such money spinning regions have to wait
for allocation from the center. All oil revenue is taken by the federal
government, and 13% of it is later ‘allocated’ to the oil producing
region. On VAT, 90% is reserved for distributable pool. There is no
country in the world where such formulas are obtained.
In multi-regional Spain, which has arguably the most acrimonious
multi-region democracy in Europe, the relatively rich Basque region
controls most of its (Basque’s) tax revenue. It pays the center for
services rendered (foreign affairs, defence,monarchy) by negotiated
transfer. It controls all other aspects of its society. Yet, they feel
aggrieved and Basque separatist movement has been an enduring reality in
Spain. Their grievance, amongst others, is having to subsidize poorer
regions like Andalusia in the south and Galicia, in the north. It is also
worth mentioning that the regions re-negotiate their contract with the
Central Spanish government every five years. And some of them like Basque
and Catalonia have autonomy.
Germany has poorer, north eastern states (Landers) like Saxony,
Brandenburg, etc in East Germany. But they do not ‘kidnap’ resources
from West Germany. Neither is there a ‘mysterious’ revenue formula used to
drain the richer West Germany, for purposes of one united Germany. There
are agreed and accepted transfer, from Berlin. Not forced or foisted
exploitation.
The Mezzogiorro in Italy is a region of relative poverty. But it does not
resort to official extortion to re-distribute income from richer regions.
The Nigeria revenue formula is unsustainable. There is deep resentment in
the South-East and South-South of Nigeria over this insolent revenue
formula. My fear is that it may have reached a tipping point.
FEDERAL CHARACTER: In recent days, the supporters of Buhari have been
telling the whole world that appointments made by Buhari are based on
merit. This was in response to accusations of lopsidedness. I was rather
surprised, since federal character, which was championed by the Northern
elites, has not been annulled. I wish it was.
Federal character is a classic form of quota system. Some people may
regard it as affirmative action. It was initiated by yet another North-led
government in Nigeria. It was intended to reserve positions in the federal
civil service to disadvantaged states. (Mainly in the North).
It was a crass display of contempt for merit. It was supposed to be
affirmative action for minorities, but it has been affirmative action for
the majority ethnic group. If the Federal Character Commission can be bold
to publish the employment in Federal Agencies and Parastatals by ethnic
nationalities, we will be chilled.
When Murtala Mohammed first advocated it to the constitution drafting
committee in October 1975, it was to give every citizen a sense of
belonging in Nigeria. But many observers suspected that it was to balance
the perceived hurdle that merit imposed on ‘disadvantaged’ states.
No other multi-ethnic or multi-lingual society (talk less of
multi-religious one) applies this type of affirmative action.
India has quota system for her civil service, but it is mainly for the
lower cadre. The upper or administrative cadre of the civil service is
recruited through one of the toughest exams in the world. It is purely on
merit.
Belgium has it French-speaking and Fleming speaking population. But
recruitment to her civil service is by successfully passing a competitive
examination, organized by the federal selection and recruitment office
(SECOR).
Canada likewise has English-speaking and French-speaking regions. Till
2003, it used a ‘best-qualified’ critera for recruitment. From 2003,
under its Public Service Modernization Act, it now applies a value-based
approach. Emphasis is on experience, skill and knowledge for the
advertised position. No federal character or ethnic character. In fact in
1984, its commission on Equality in Employment recommended that no quota
should be applied in civil service. Rather specific targets can be set for
relevant groups like the disabled, etc.
Where did this federal character come from? It is another grievous fault
line, that I am afraid could tip the balance against tolerance.
HIGHER EDUCATION: Nigeria is the only country in the world where a
federally subsidized tertiary education is not merit-driven. How can we be
complaining about the quality of graduates, when only 40% of university
and tertiary education is reserved for merit? Imagine that! Higher
education in the 21st century is based on sundry considerations like
‘catchment areas’.
When countries are worried about the quality of their higher education and
focused on selecting the best. Nigeria is trying to preserve ethnocentric
admission policy that rewards tribe and religion and punishes merit and
hard work. What kind of nation or country are you expecting to build?
Youngsters from the south can score 200 in JAMB, and fail to gain
admission in federal-subsidized institutions. Their counterparts in the
north scores 66 and gets admitted into choice professional courses. I am
yet to see anywhere in the world where this formula is applied. It is
straight from the pit of hell. Meanwhile the North is not in anyway
disadvantaged in intelligence!
Several nations preserve affirmative action for tertiary education, but it
is always a low percentage, never exceeding 15%-20%. Reserving 60% of a
nation’s university education for considerations, other than merit, in
the 21st century, is a recipe for mediocrity.
In Nigeria’s case, because these youngsters can easily compare what
happens in other climes, resentment builds up.This is another
sub-terrainian fault line that has generated tremendous animosity. I am
afraid for this country if this continues.
LAND USE ACT: This act effectively transferred ownership of 900,000 square
kilometers of Nigeria land to the government. It is Marxist in
principle.
In the pre-colonial days, land management was vastly different in the
North and South of Nigeria. The North practiced a more feudal system of
land maximization within the ancient state.It was uncommon to see small
land owners in the North, before the British incursion. This is unlike
in the south, from south-east, south-south, to south-west, where land
typically belongs to families and individuals. There were many small land
holders (farmers). People typically farmed their land, rather than work in
large farms that belong to feudal lords, as was the case in the
pre-colonial north.
Today, we have a land policy directly borrowed from the former northern
practice. The feudal lord now is the government. This is alien to the
typical and customary land management in southern part of Nigeria. It is
a reform whose time has come.
MIDDLE BELT: The middle belt of Nigeria sits atop a two-thousand-foot-high
plateau of brown table land. It is the region where the Savannah meets the
Sahel. Christianity meets Islam and North meets South. It is a major fault
line.
From the inception of civil rule in 1999, more Nigerians have lost their
lives in the middle belt violence, than in any other part of Nigeria. This
fact is usually lost. The middle belt has borne the major brunt of the
pastoral non-chalance of Fulani herdsmen. It has also borne the greater
scar of the inter-religious crisis in Nigeria. Resentments run deep among
the different antagonist in this region. The fact that the two major
religion in Nigeria are inter-mingled here has hardened the edge of each
faith in this region.
The middle belt could have been an earthly paradise, but it is not. There
is a perpetual civil war going on there, from Plateau to Nassarawa, from
Benue to Kogi, with spillovers. Ambush with fatal consequences is the
modus operandi.
My fear is that these fault lines have so much weakened the Nigeria
society, though the political super-structure appears to be intact. It is
a Potemkin polity. The last election also showed a deeply divided nation.
The middle belt votes were largely split in the states where the fault
lines are most evident (Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Plateau). The south-west
was also split 6:4, while the former Biafran nation and former Sokoto and
Borno empires went over 90% for their ‘son’.
I want Nigeria to survive. But I want it to survive as a just, fair,
equitable nation, that is built on merit and oppportunities
We must tell ourselves the truth. This experiment of an almost equal
Christian and Muslim polity, has never worked anywhere before. It is a
product of British imagination. If we want it to work, we must pull down
all institutional injustices.
In India, the British attempted to create a single nation of large Hindu
and Muslim constituents. Mahatma Gandhi, the idealist, supported the plan.
Thankfully, a political pragmatist, in the person of Ali Jinah, was able
to persuade the colonialists that the formula was a ticking bomb.
This was why Pakistan was carved out for the Muslims, as a Muslim nation.
And India was left for mainly the Hindus. Yet India and Pakistan have
fought five wars since 1947. Imagine if they had been one country.
The British made similar mistake in Iraq. It was an artificial creation of
incompatible groups: Kurds, Shitte Muslims, and Sunni. They had only been
held together by oppressive forceful regimes since 1958. Ethnic and
sectarian animosities were forcefully suppressed for decades. Today,Iraq
is the global hotbed of vicious violence.
Nigeria has to look at all these nations, to confirm what does not work.
The current structure of Nigeria’s politics, economics, and society is not
sustainable. We have to look at nations like UK, Canada and India, to
learn how to manage a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-religious
democracy.
But my fear is that current leaders are too busy fighting yesterday’s
battles.
The iceberg is getting closer!
OLISA AKUKWE
@FrankOlisa.