The race for governorship of Osun state is picking up .Within the ruling
All Progressive Congress, the man holding the ace is Governor Rauf
Aregbesola, whether anybody like it or not.
Rauf is going to instal a successor, going by ongoing and existing
permutations. A realistic fact is that the Governor as at now is not sure
of who is going to succeed him. Yes,deep in his heart ,he is still
searching . Like a friend said ,the oracle is yet to select “omo oye”.
And this is why all ongoing projections are false.With the death of
Senator Isiaka Adeleke ,the above fact has even become more real than mere
speculation. For one ,all pre – death scheming has been effectively
silenced by the exit of Asiwaju of Ede. The sad event even further
reconfirmed that Ogbeni is yet to decide.Yet,this is #ogbenitilldaybreak.
As an insider ,let me scribble here seven principles that will guide how
Ogbeni will choose a successor. Please don’t shout on roof top over what
you are going to read.It is a bitter fact which all stakeholders should
rather note and accept now.
First,any very rich aspirant should forget any dream of making the
succession. No leader entrust a seat of such importance to a politician
who can finance himself. What will be the place of the outgoing governor
and the many leaders? A rich man in office is a recipe for political
arrogance which will destroy not just the predecessor but the
establishment.
Two,an aspirant with a political structure is a potential problem. If he
has his own structure ,why would he needs the outgoing boss? What is going
to happen to the political structure of the incumbent ? An aspirant with
solid political structure is a potential danger to the incumbent,now and
after leaving office.
Three,any aspirant very close to the incumbent is a future agent of
betrayal . Because he knows all the secrets of the incumbent,he is in a
better position to blackmail his predecessor if he emerges the Governor.
Several examples abound.
Four,any aspirant who understands the full working of the ruling
establsihment is well equipped to thrash and destroy it after securing
power. He would actually destroy that establishment because he would have
the eternal fear that his predecessor would continue to manipulate the
structure to undermine him.
Five,any aspirant of decades long association with the incumbent is likely
to carry both credit and liability of the outgoing ,meaning that
electorally he cannot bring new cadres of voters to the electoral
mathematics. Because he is known as the associate of the outgoing ,the
voters circle is restricted ,leaving many new voters outside the political
calculus.
Six ,long term association with the incumbent is no longer a condition for
retaining loyalty and protection from the succesor. If an Akeredolu can
protect a Mimiko ,how would a succesor on the same party not be more than
eager to protect the predecessor. In fact ,a pledge of loyalty to the
outgoing is now a weak bargaining power as loyalty can be secured from
both new and old friends.
Seven,the capital city factor has been nullified by the widely acknowldged
transformation of Osogbo with several overhead bridges and infrastructural
advantages. Hence that commendable achievement has relieved Ogbeni
Aregbesola of that burden of satisfying the yearning of Osogbo for the
governorahip.
I put the above together to let you pundits know that the game is still
too early. A lot of surprises are still in the oven.
But the APC as a party in Osun owes a lot to the Chief of Staff ,Gboyega
Oyetola for his loyalty and passionate support for the Governor in the
last six years. Ditto for Dr Ajibola Bashiru , an erudite politician who
is contributing greatly to the transformation of Osun state.
* Balogun,a political activist ,sent this piece from Ikirun,Osun state.