Magazine, says Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) will defeat President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019.
The London-based magazine made the prediction in its latest country report
on Nigeria, which was obtained by THISDAY.
This is coming less than two months after it had predicted that Buhari
would lose the election.
“Mr. Buhari is the APC’s presidential candidate and his main challenger is
Mr. Abubakar, who was recently nominated PDP’s candidate with overwhelming
backing from the party,” the report read.
“Abubakar’s pledge is to reinvigorate the economy with pro-market reforms.
Both candidates are from the northern Nigeria, where Buhari’s support base
lies, presaging a fierce contest there.
“With the vote likely to be split in the North, Abubakar will find it
easier to garner support from the country’s south, which has traditionally
been a safe haven for the PDP.
“This gives Abubakar an edge, as does popular frustration over the rise in
joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr.
Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria.”
The magazine said strong incumbency advantages in the country will make
the contest a tight race.
“If Abubakar loses – a distinct downside risk to our forecast – there may
be a rejection of the result by the PDP, which is convinced that election
will be rigged,” it said.
“In this scenario, a state of national paralysis could arise with severe
national security implication.”
The EIU, which gave different reasons for its prediction, also noted that
without a party system based on shared principles, it would be difficult
to overcome Nigeria’s multi-layered security threats.
It added that instability and legislative paralysis would affect many
aspects of the economic forecast.
“We forecast that currency depreciation will keep annual inflation
elevated at an average rate of 13.9 per cent in 2019 -2020,” it said.
“Following this will be a period of disinflation in 2021- 2023 as the
naira stabilises. Export growth will be slower in 2019-2020, as oil prices
dip in these years, than in 2021-2023, when world crude prices are
expected to rise. Import demand will also be held back in 2019-2020, as
the naira depreciates before picking up in 2021-2023 as the currency
stabilises.
“The election period itself will be a time of high risk; as a recent
election in Osun demonstrated, small scale violence at the polls is highly
likely, as is disputation of the results.
“Parliamentary rift will remain the main problem and this applies no
matter who is in charge, given competing priorities between
representatives from different regions and the absence of common ideology
within parties.
“Without a collective resolve, it would prove impossible to bring
permanent peace to the large parts of Nigeria hit variously by an
insurgency in the north, ethno-nationalism tensions and disputes over land
access across the centre of the country.
“It will prove to be hard to build a more effective security apparatus
while also creating economic opportunities for local population; poverty
lies at the root of much of the instability.
“Our central forecast is, however, that the 2019 elections will be
completed without a widespread breakdown of stability – with Nigeria’s
democracy proving once again to be robust enough to endure.
“In 2019, what are expected to be fiercely contested elections in February
will hold back business and consumer confidence that year, and although
markets are likely to approve of Mr. Abubakar’s economic reform agenda –
meaning the disruption is likely to be short-lived- we forecast a growth
rate of 1.9 per cent – the lowest rate of growth in our five-year outlook
period.”