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By Lizzy Chirkpi
As the 2027 general election approaches, the ability of the opposition to regroup, consolidate, and present a formidable challenge to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party will largely determine the future of Nigeria’s multi-party democracy.
The Nigerian 10th National Assembly has indeed witnessed a gale of defection, particularly from opposition parties to the APC in the past few months. This trend has become a major talking point in Nigerian politics, raising concerns about the state of the opposition and the implications for the 2027 general elections.
The APC has significantly strengthened its majority in the Senate. As of recent reports, the APC holds 68 seats, while the PDP has declined to 30. Other parties like the Labour Party, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) hold a much smaller number of seats.
Notable defections recently include three PDP senators from Kebbi State (Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki) and Senator Sumaila Kawu (NNPP, Kano South) to the APC.
The House has also caught the defection fever. The APC’s numbers have grown to 207, while the PDP’s have reduced to 92. Examples of recent defections include six PDP House of Representatives members from Delta State and two Labour Party legislators from Enugu State, who moved to the APC and PDP respectively.
While defecting lawmakers often cite internal crises and leadership disputes within their former parties, political analysts suggest that self-preservation, access to state resources, and aligning with the ruling party’s interests are major drivers.
There are also allegations of financial inducements and promises of automatic tickets in the 2027 elections. The mass defection from Kebbi State underscores the shifting political landscape within the National Assembly.
It reflects a growing trend of opposition lawmakers aligning with the ruling APC, raising questions about the future dynamics of Nigerian politics and the strength of the opposition.
The movement highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the PDP in maintaining its political cohesion, particularly in light of recent electoral outcomes and internal disputes. The senators’ endorsement of President Bola Tinubu Renewed Hope Agenda also signals a potential realignment of political forces, as the APC seeks to consolidate its majority in the legislative body.
A House of Representatives member, Sunday Umahia, on 22 May 2025, defected from the LP to the APC which further reduced the number. He represents the Ezeagu/Udi Federal Constituency of Enugu State.
Sheriff Oborevwori, the incumbent governor of Delta State, made headlines on April 23, 2025, when he defected from the PDP to the APC. Delta, which is known for its oil wealth and strategic political significance, has been a PDP stronghold since 1999.
Oborevwori’s move, accompanied by his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa, signals a major political shift. Okowa, who was the PDP’s vice-presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, emphasised the need for Delta State to align with the Federal Government to unlock development opportunities. This defection is seen as a turning point in the state’s political trajectory.
Some opposition governors are reportedly being courted to join the APC. This move is aimed at preventing a broad coalition of opposition parties, similar to the one formed before the 2015 elections, which successfully unseated an incumbent president. The strategy recognises that governors typically control their party’s structures within their states and possess significant influence to sway and mobilise support for their chosen parties and candidates.
Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Pastor Umo Eno, who is set to swap PDP for APC has long before now declared his support for President Bola Tibunu’s second-term bid explaining that Tinubu’s commitment to national development through critical infrastructure projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal highway was what made him to endorse the president.
“Mr. President has approved and embarked on this audacious project that is set to unlock our economic potentials, especially for coastal communities. This initiative aligns with his Renewed Hope Agenda and deserves to be completed under his leadership,” Governor was quoted as saying a few weeks ago.
The embattled Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara, who is currently suspended, is alleged to have privately met with President Tinubu in the United Kingdom. Speculation is rife that, given his current political predicament, Fubara might yield to pressure to defect to the APC.
However, such a move would reportedly depend on his willingness to collaborate with the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike.
Furthermore, a second term as governor for Fubara is anticipated to be challenging unless he accedes to the pressure to join the APC, which would boost President Tinubu’s political standing in the state.
Other governors rumored to be considering defection to the APC include those of Plateau, Zamfara, Enugu, and Osun states respectively.
The endorsement of Tinubu’s second-term ambition in 2027 by the National Working Committee of the APC, as the 22 governors elected on the platform of the APC, and the National Assembly leadership had introduced another dynamic into the Nigerian political arena.
The President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio during the APC National summit highlighted: “I want to move that not only would President Tinubu be the sole candidate for the presidency in 2027, but he would also be the sole candidate for the whole Nigerian population. Because all other political parties have been turned into shreds. Nigerians are saying that because you have done a difficult job well, it’s time for us to reward you by sending you back to the presidency.”
Meanwhile President Tinubu, articulated his anticipation of increased defection from opposition parties to the governing All Progressives Congress prior to the 2027 elections. President Tinubu at the APC National Summit stated, “I just need to tell those who say a one-party system is not good: you don’t blame a people bailing out of a sinking ship when they have no life jackets. I’m glad for what we have, and I’m expecting more to come. That is the game. Welcome to progress; sweep them clean.”
Although, the President countered the accusations of engineering a one-party system by highlighting that Nigeria’s constitution guarantees freedom of association, thus absolving defectors of blame for seeking alternative political affiliations.
The Consequences of a One Party Nigeria
The continuous defections have a profound impact on the strength and voice of the opposition. The mass defection of lawmakers and even some state governors significantly weakens the numerical strength and political influence of opposition parties. This makes it harder for them to scrutinise government policies, provide effective checks and balances, and present a viable alternative to the ruling party.
Speaking to Pointblank on this development, the National Coordinator of Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA), Comrade Emmanuel Onwubiko said it’s impossible for Nigeria to become a one party State despite the gimmicks employed by the APC.
“Nigeria wouldn’t turn into a one party state. It is not practically possible, but the APC is applying all kinds of tactics, including bribery to get the top flight politicians in other parties to join the APC due to the fear by the APC that the bad governance in Nigeria would make Nigerians to vote out President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
“However, it is disappointing that the PDP and Labour Party are being disintegrated by the Presidency just so that the key opposition politicians like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi wouldn’t have political strictures to pose significant challenges to the APC’s Tinubu in 2027. It is very unfortunate that even within these two parties, the so-called officials are the agents that are deployed by the president to decimate these parties. Ultimately, I think the country would not slide into a one party state, but the possibility that the weakening of the opposition parties has adversely affected democracy in Nigeria is very much noticeable”, he lamented.
In what seems to be medicine after death, the PDP recently set up a reconciliatory committee chaired by former Senate President, Bukola Saraki to address the internal wrangling. The party inaugurated a seven-member reconciliation committee, as it intensifies efforts to resolve its lingering internal disputes and foster unity. This move comes ahead of crucial party events, including the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting scheduled for May 27 and the national convention slated for August 2025.
The establishment of this committee was announced by governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, who also chairs the PDP Governors Forum, following a high-level meeting with serving and former governors, members of the National Working Committee (NWC), and other key stakeholders.
The primary mandate of the Saraki-led committee is to reconcile aggrieved members, stem the tide of recent defections, and ensure a rancor-free environment for the upcoming NEC meeting and national convention. Governor Mohammed emphasised that the committee’s work is crucial for navigating the party through its current existential issues and positioning it for future success.
Meanwhile, a PDP stelwart and former governor of Benue State, Sen. Gabriel Suswam said, “Whether there is light at the end of the tunnel in the efforts made by Senator Saraki will be seen in the next two weeks. For now, I would say that PDP is in the hospital? Yes. Is it in the ICU to some extent? Yes, it is. Can it be rescued? Yes, if the proper medicine is applied.”
He added that comparing the PDP to a patient in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) means its survival chances are 50-50. If Saraki’s team fails, he warned, the party may not survive.
The frequency of defections, often without clear ideological shifts, suggests a weakening of party ideologies in Nigerian politics. Parties become less distinct, reducing electoral choices to personalities rather than policy platforms.
The perception that politicians switch parties for personal gain rather than public interest can lead to increased public cynicism and voter apathy, as citizens may feel their votes do not truly effect change. If the trend continues unchecked, there is a growing concern about Nigeria edging closer to a de facto one-party state, which could have serious implications for democratic pluralism and accountability.
Despite the significant setbacks, some opposition elements are reportedly engaging in discussions to form alliances and coalitions to challenge the APC in 2027.
There are ongoing negotiations among opposition parties, including the PDP and others, to potentially unite under a single platform or form strategic partnerships. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has indicated plans to unite opposition parties, and former APC vice-chairman (North-West) Salihu Lukman confirmed that consultations are at an advanced stage.
However, the opposition parties, particularly the PDP, are still grappling with internal wrangling and disunity, which has been cited as a reason for some defections.
The major challenges for the opposition include overcoming internal divisions, rebuilding public trust, presenting a unified front, and articulating a clear and compelling alternative vision for the country. The perceived advantages of the ruling party in terms of state resources and political patronage also pose a hurdle. This development will undoubtedly spark further debate and analysis regarding the implications for governance, policy-making, and the overall political climate in Nigeria.