BY: DEBO ADENIYI
Monday, 27 Apr. 2020
As the global outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues
to cause significant health challenges across the world, many countries
have been working assiduously in containing it and its challenges with a
devasting impact on world economies. No doubt, the natural environment
is the biggest gainer in this pandemic era with many factories and
businesses closed, combined with fewer cars on the road and fewer planes
in the sky, our natural environment is recovering slowly. We now need to
balance the social and economic sustainability while deploying
strategies in the transition to the new-normal in sustaining the natural
environment in its green and clean state towards a more digitalized and
a low-carbon economy.
Sustainability is often conceived of as an attempt to balance competing
economic, environmental, and social priorities. United Nations
Development Program (UNDP) also suggests that sustainable development is
a balance between social, environmental, and economic objectives.
Since most countries have implemented some level of lockdown to curtail
the spread of the disease. This is having huge adverse effects on
businesses. Most industries particularly, airline, retail, financial
institutions, sports, tourism and hospitality, oil and gas, and other
service-related industries, have been adversely impacted. In Nigeria,
with the huge population of the country in the informal sector and many
surviving on daily wages, and the growing existence of Micro, small and
medium enterprises (MSMEs), the continued total lockdown will further
cripple businesses, accelerate the rate of job loss and increase the
level of poverty with the consequential effect of increased insecurity.
I greatly appreciate the health authorities, the healthcare, and other
frontline workers, in the race in winning the battle towards saving
lives from the wicked hands of the invincible enemy called Covid-19, I
also understand the sentiments in advising the government on effective
and total lockdown as one of the effective ways in curbing the
Coronavirus, they should not also overlook the economic realities that
if not addressed swiftly too, may spell doom for the same lives that
they have saved.
How do we explain a man that was infected with the Coronavirus disease,
admitted at the health facility within the isolation center, received
treatments and saved by health workers, only to get home and eventually
killed by hunger or depression as a result of job loss? This shows us
clearly that the “economy in itself is the sustenance of life”.
Hence, balancing the protection of lives with economic interests is
paramount at this point.
It is important to note that while businesses remain shutdown and
unproductive with attendant mass losses of revenue, overhead costs still
remain. Companies will have to struggle in paying rents, salaries,
taxes, servicing loans, etc.
Unlike the advanced nations that have made good provisions for the
people and businesses via “stimulus Package” with more direct
intervention such as direct wage or income support, tax credits or tax
deferrals, wage subsidies, short-term work schemes, moratoriums on loan
payments and the establishment of a coronavirus Job Retention Scheme,
where the government pays up to 60% of private-sector salaries until
June, as long as workers are not sacked, as exhibited in countries like
France, Denmark, UK, etc. so as to reduce the negative impact on
businesses and slow the rate of job loss, the US alone has deployed a
US$2.2 trillion stimulus package which, The US Senate also just passed a
bill for $484 billion “More Small-Business Stimulus”, including a
$320 billion “Paycheck Protection Program” to enable small
businesses to pay their staff salaries for two months. But what we have
witnessed in Nigeria has been highly disappointing and unacceptable.
Evidence has shown that the stimulus package by the federal and state
governments in Nigeria are not effective, nor sustainable. The Federal
and State Government in Nigeria has no financial or economic capacity to
sustain Nigerians for a week lockdown let alone months of lockdowns.
Lack of structure and data has also made it difficult for the
governments in identifying the targets which are the vulnerable, old,
and poor people, etc. We have also witnessed the politicized and
lopsided distribution of the stimulus packages to Nigerians, the youths
who constitute the largest population are largely cut-off from the
stimulus package. Also, the announced stimulus, to a large extent, has
not addressed the critical needs of businesses that will guarantee the
sustainability and protection of jobs.
Furthermore, With the present decline in the global oil price, the
Chairman of Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF), Dr. Kayode Fayemi has warned
that States may get zero FAAC Allocations in June. According to him,
“You have seen the difficulty that oil prices are experiencing around
the world. So, it is a no-brainer. You don’t need to be a rocket
scientist to know that you may not even have N200b to share as FAAC in
June. We are talking of June because oil is sold three months ahead. So,
the ones that have been sold before now, they have given us that it is
not as bad as it is”.
The impact of the above statement is that most states in Nigeria will no
longer be able to pay salaries of workers since they largely rely on
Federal Allocation. So, the easiest alternative that can save them is
internally generated revenue through taxes and other ventures. So, how
can you achieve that when the states are in a lockdown situation?
The essence of the lockdown with border closure ordered by the
governments means that it will continue to do so with the option of
extensions until the time that it has reached a certain satisfactory
state that the spread of Covid-19 has been contained, curved, or on the
nose-dived. The length of time required for such lockdowns to ensure
effectiveness and satisfaction in arresting the spread would make it
near impossible in a country like Nigeria where no sustainable
palliative in place and where social distancing in most places will
remain impracticable. From the shanties in Makoko and Ajegunle townships
to the crowded places like Okokomaiko, Idumota, Idumagbo, Ajangbadi,
Akesan, Akowonjo, Alimosho, or Mararaba, Yayan in Abuja/Nasarawa, etc
social clustering in only natural and certain in such circumstances as
Communal living is not just about culture, it is a matter of economic
survival.
If the strategy is to lockdown until infections stop/significantly
decline or so, then we might be waiting indefinitely as evident that the
four weeks of lockdown only produced a spiraled increase in cases
instead of decline. So, there is no evidence that further lockdown will
reduce the figures of cases per day with the present social,
environmental, and economic realities in our communities.
As widely informed by the World Health Organisation (WHO) that a good
strategy in curbing the Coronavirus is to improve and accelerate testing
and reporting. It has become evident that Nigeria’s Government through
NCDC has been moving at a snail pace when it comes to testing. While a
country like Ghana has tested over 100,000 people as of today, Nigeria
has only managed to test about 10,918 people from the population of over
200 million people despite the imposition of 4-week lockdown in states
like Lagos, Ogun, and Abuja, with many other states following the same
route. With the above data and pace, it is clear that there will always
be massive under-testing and gross under-reporting. Hence the need to
rethink our strategy on the Lockdown order.
WAY FORWARD:
Since it is evident that we cannot sustain lockdowns indefinitely or
even until the spread stops/declines, I propose a gradual and
strategic/systemic relaxed lockdown where the transport sector and
businesses should be activated with guidelines and legislations to
include compulsory use of Face masks in public places, sanitizers,
maintenance of social distancing, increased education and awareness
(posters, social media, electronics, and print media, etc), disinfection
of all open markets and all public places, a limited number of
passengers in public and private transportation and strict enforcement
of same, personal hygiene at homes and offices, amongst others. Lifting
of restriction of large gatherings should be in the second phase such as
educational, religious, political, and social gatherings, also border
lockdown restrictions and full economy restart should follow.
All states and local governments in Nigeria should be mobilized in
carrying out the Covid-19 test as soon as possible and governments at
all levels should be transparent with accurate data and reporting.
The farming season is on and we must ensure that the farmers get access
to fertilizers and other inputs as soon as possible to avoid famine.
Lockdowns during the planting season could threaten food security in
months ahead and Inflation will shoot up in many cases. The government
should also provide a safe, enabling, and secure environment for them in
the distribution of their farm produce.
Our western and local/traditional (herbal) medical experts and research
institutions should all be mobilized to come up with solutions to cure
the Covid-19
It will also be imperative for the government at all levels to be more
strategic and transparent in the administration of social welfare and
palliatives distribution among the most vulnerable.
Governments at all levels, private sectors, and other stakeholders
should embrace sustainable solutions, sources, and begin the journey of
transiting to a more digitalized and low-carbon economy.
Once again, I applaud and salute our frontline health workers, other
front liners, the governments, Health Authorities at the World,
National, State, and Local levels, the Private Sector and other
stakeholders towards their efforts in fighting this invincible enemy
called Covid-19 into a halt. We are surely in this together.
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By Debo Adeniyi
Debo Adeniyi is the Executive Director and the Global Sustainability
Leader, at the Centre for Global Solutions and Sustainable Development,
(CENGSSUD)
He is a seasoned professional, a Corporate Sustainability and
Sustainable Development Practitioner, a trained business strategist, an
innovator with experience and specialties towards working with the
private sector in implementing Sustainability in core business strategy,
DNA and operations with a strong drive on values, results, creating
compelling overarching aspirations and embedding them in the
organisation through change management and empowered leadership to
create growth, innovation, and operational efficiencies.