BY RUTH OKWUMBU
The Nigerian constitution makes provision for an election to be conducted every four years at the state and national levels, and three years for the local government. In furtherance to this, no one is allowed to contest for the same position beyond two times (except for the national and state houses of assembly). This means that, all things being equal, power is most likely to change hands every eight years, and in very few cases where an incumbent loses an election, four years.
Recent trends, since the postponement of the 2015 general elections by six weeks, and even after the announcement of the election results, has shown a certain amount of unstable trends, especially in the Nigerian stock market. This has been interpreted by experts, as being the natural result of fear of the unknown. Most investors, at this point start liquidating their shares and assets, since no one is sure of the kind of economic policies and strategies the new government would put in place. This is of course more pronounced when the incoming government is from a different political party from the outgoing government (as is the current Nigerian scenario).
Despite all the cries of foul play by strong Jonathan loyalists and PDP faithful, the President seems unaffected by his narrowly losing the Presidential elections of March 28. For all intents and purposes, the President bounced back in no time, with a clear determination not to be pushed out of power earlier than May 29. Despite insistence of the APC members that he was making the transition tougher than it should be, the President insisted that he would not stop his responsibility of governance until he officially hands over on May 29.
This has been evidenced in his vigorous pursuance of projects, which from all indications, should be commissioned in the little time left before May 29. Just a couple of weeks back, about 500 females were rescued from the dreaded Sambisa Forest, with the United Nations confirming that about 214 of them were pregnant. This has shamed the opinion of all those who had concluded that President Goodluck Jonathan, was way too soft at handling the issue of security in the North-eastern part of the country. In less than two months to the end of his tenure, President Jonathan has proven that the delay to act was not a result of ignorance, but patient and detailed studying of the Sambisa terrain by the Security and Intelligence teams.
A few have described his actions, as not just coming late, but as an attempt by the President to ensure than the President-Elect does not get the credit for projects which he came in to meet almost complete. Whatever the reason for the action coming now, Nigerians are happy to know that the President has decided to not lie on his bed, awaiting May 29, but is determined to effect his responsibilities till his last seconds in the Presidential villa.
The Transition committee set up by President Goodluck Jonathan, and the one set up by Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, have been very busy. Reports have been submitted, some more are being compiled and prepared for the incoming government. At this point, both teams are coming face to face with the realities on ground. The out-going government officials have realised that indeed, the end of the government has finally arrived. This point was recently driven home by the comments by President Jonathan recently, that some of his aides and officials might be prosecuted after May 29.
The Buhari team, on the other hand, are already coming down hard to the reality that there might not be enough funds in the national treasury to execute all of his beautiful promises, and the enormous task of governing the large and diverse Giant of Africa especially in the face of dwindling resources and continuous dropping of the naira value is become crystal clear. The President-Elect has already been quoted as calling for patience from Nigerians, as Rome was not built in a day. Thankfully, the Peoples General has the next four year, and not one day, to deliver on these promises, as this would determine if he is given a chance to continue for another four years.
In the spirit of the transition (more like power changing hands), some state governments are leaving behind huge pile of debts for their successors, alongside months of unpaid salaries. Even though this can be seen in most states, it seems more pronounced in states where the incoming government and the outgoing government are of two different political parties. The heat of it all ends on the traders who, do not receive direct salaries from the government, have civil servants as their customers, and are thus affected by the scarcity of cash. Some go as far as deferring the payment of debts till after the new government has been sworn in. things at this point, are more unstable as most people cannot predict what the new government would mean for them.
Coming down to Delta, the uncertainty plaguing the national economy is not pronounced here, probably because it is a transition from one individual to another, both of the same Political party, and by extension, same political ideology. As such, things have remained stable. The political tension at the national scene is conspicuously missing, reason being that most members of the outgoing government, on one way or the other, worked towards the emergence of the incoming government. At this point, lots of prayers are being said and lots of persons have started leg movements to ensure that they are not left out of the next dispensation.
By now, those who would not be favored by the next administration, already know themselves. One of the young men, who worked assiduously campaigning for the PDP to win at the grassroot, has already expressed his fear of being left out when the dividends are being shared after the swearing in. according to him, the failure of the party to clinch the central seat, means that those who ought to be compensated with appointments at the federal level will now come to the state level to be rewarded as commissioner and special advisers, leaving out the younger ones who ought to have gotten such positions. This would, in turn, leave them to hope to be compensated as Personal Assitants, (in which case, the chances are very low).
Despite the unpredicatability, people are eagerly waiting to know what the near future holds for them. By the second week of June, the leaders of the State and federal assemblies, and sometime in the month, we should know who is Minister of what, Commissioner for what, and Special Adviser on what. Hopefully, while making the numerous appointments, the Chief Executives, both at the federal and state level would recall that there has been a dip in the oil prize, hence the need for belt-tightening measures, starting with the government officials.
In fact, most people cannot wait for the transition period to pass them by, so that the new governments can be sworn in, and investors can continue with their dealings. Most investors who had earlier on liquidated their shares, are waiting to view the new economic mood and know how their investments would fare in such times.
With less than 10 days to go, there are already predictions, advices and insinuations as to what Nigeria would look like in the Change Era, having successfully transited from the Transformation agenda of President Goodluck Jonathan to the Change Era of the Peoples General.