The atmosphere in Syria is still edgy. The chaotic situation in the country is sending Men, women and young children to their early graves on a daily basis. Those who cannot stand the heat are leaving in drove. There seems to be no end in sight for the five-year civil war ravaging Syria. The restiveness in this region is not yielding to any political solution at the moment due to ‘dirty international politics’ that has been introduced into it by the countries called ‘Super Powers’.
As a country in the Western Asia, bordering Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea to the West; Syria has a history of power struggles, wars and countless coups. Unlike in other Arab countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, where ‘Arab spring’ had been successfully staged and new governments were established; Syria’s crisis has failed to achieve this.
Rather than making any meaningful impact; it has only succeeded in destroying human lives and material resources. Over 200, 000 lives had been estimated to have been lost since the crisis started in 2011. Many who are displaced are currently seeking refuge in neighboring countries. Today, crisis in Syria is becoming a bubonic plague which if not meticulously addressed could be devastating not only to Syria but the entire world. The peace that pervades the world is currently being threatened by the conflict in Syria.
Unfortunately, United States of America, Britain, France, Russia and China-the five nations that ought to have used their political influence in a disordered situation like this have failed to reach a consensus on the issue of Syria. While U.S and Britain are ready to take military action against Syria; Russia and China are solidly behind Al-Assad. However, there seems to be no other rationale to this, other than politics of interest which had been the ‘Super Powers’ major reason for taking definitive action against those perceived as recalcitrant leaders already affected by the Arab spring. The recent show of supports by virtually all the five members of UN Security Council to either President Bashal Al-Assad or the Al-Qaeda affiliated rebels in Syria all point to dirty politics of interests that has been the hallmark of the United Nation Security Council.
If late Moammar Gaddhafi had thoroughly mastered international politics and made an ally with one or two countries in UN Security Council; he probably would not have ended the way he did. But because he failed to recognize the importance of romancing one or two countries in the UN, he perished in his self-induced ignorance. Bashal Al-Assad on the other hand had mastered international politics and has found allies in Russia and China- the two nations he and his late father must have protected their interests in Syria.
RUSSIA’S POSITION
Russia is criminally loyal to Assad’s government. That is why today, it is supporting the Syrian leader with airstrikes against rebel targets and ISIS positions. It is also sending ground forces to support the ongoing airstrikes. Cruise missiles have been fired from Russian war ships and there are condemnations that innocent civilians are affected. Though West is not favorably disposed to this, Russian President who has declared his support to Assad and is leaving no stone unturned to support his ally. Moscow’s support for the Assad regime is seen by the West as a bad policy and not a constructive policy.
U.S AND BRITAIN
Apart from the wanton destruction of lives in Syria; U.S and Britain are currently supporting Al-Qaeda affiliated rebels against Assad forces in Syria. This has however raised a moral question on the real intentions of West in Syria. Is this act of desperation a way of putting a stop to the conflict ravaging the country or a desperation propelled by selfish interest of the West? Either way, the moral question these two countries should answer is whether the phrase: “zero tolerance to terrorism is no longer in existence? If these two countries could descend so low as to give support to Al-Qaeda affiliated rebels in Syria-then there is definitely more to it than meet the eye.
BOTH ASSAD, ISIS AND OTHER REBELS ARE GUILTY OF GENOCIDE
The gritty truth is that Al-Assad’s soldiers, ISIS and other rebels in Syria are all guilty of genocide. Unfortunately, because of politics of interests, countless of innocent Syrians have become collateral damage at the altar of international politics. A dangerous dimension was added to the unrest when chemical weapon that killed more 1000 people was used. Up till now all major actors in the crisis in Syria are still killing innocent civilians as they fight for supremacy.
THE IRAN’S POSITION
The Iran Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei once stated that military action against Syria would be disastrous. He was quoted to have said: “Syria is Iran’s “35th province. If we lose Syria we won’t be able to hold Tehran,” The Iranian new leader has said that his country and Russia are working together to prevent a Western military attack on Syria.
Both Iran and Russia would work in “extensive cooperation” to prevent any military action against Syria, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in statements carried by several Iranian state-controlled media outlets. Western military action against Syria would be an “open violation” of international laws, he said.
“Military action will bring great costs for the region,” Rouhani said, and “it is necessary to apply all efforts to prevent it.”
Also, Chief of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari was quoted to have told the Tasnim news website, that an attack on Syria “means the immediate destruction of Israel.”
Iran’s rocket capabilities according to Jane’s Defense Weekly can be used against ships and strike countries as far away as Israel. Iran has been testing ballistic missiles and probably already has a solid-fuel missile that can reach Israel.
U.S. forces in the region are prepared for such attacks but would not be able to prevent them all right away, said Chris Harmer, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War who worked on military plans for the Persian Gulf as a commander in the Navy. However, recent experience shows that Iranian weapons still pose a threat to modern navies.
THE POSITION OF HEZBOLLAH
It is on record that during Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia nearly sunk the Israeli corvair Hanit with an advanced sea-skimming missile that crippled the ship’s propulsion system and killed four sailors.
Hezbollah is also said to have in its possession thousands of rockets hidden in its base in southern Lebanon that it could launch at Israeli cities. And Syria has missiles it can launch at Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, Cyprus and Israel.
Iran, a Shiite Muslim theocracy, could spur uprisings among Shiite populations in Sunni-led Gulf countries, especially Bahrain, which has a Shiite majority, and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which have considerable Shiite minorities, Cohen said.
It could also activate Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards throughout the Middle East and the world to hit civilian or military targets in the USA or Europe.
THE CONSEQUENCES TO THE WEST AND THE WORLD
The crisis in this Arab nation at this point is like a keg of gunpowder ready to explode if not properly handled. This is definitely not the best of time for either U.S or Britain to remain unwavering in removing Assad when there is ‘bigger devil’ in ISIS that needs collective corporation of all ‘Super Powers’. There will be dire consequences if the West doesn’t follow Russia in propping up the Syrian regime locked in a devastating five-year civil war with rebels and now Islamic State militants.
The West should understand that if rebels or ISIS gain control of Syria, they will not stop there but will then target the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula; of fundamental strategic importance to the West. The flow of oil through the Suez Canal would stop, sending the price of oil to amplify. This will bring about economic failure in Mediterranean countries and Europe.
With migration crisis yet to be resolved, there possibility that ISIS might lay its hands on deadly nerve gas sarin. And when this happens, even the West will not be spared.
SOLUTION
The West needs to approach this unpleasant situation with great wisdom. Through Russia and China, it is still possible to have an understanding with Assad but it will not be possible to have an understanding with ISIS or the rebels.
West must put aside the differences it had with Assad to safeguard not only the Arabian Peninsula but the entire world. Training and equipping rebels by the West will only aggravate the situation and give ISIS upper hand.