However, the biggest and most important lesson, that underlines all other lessons, to be learnt from the raging Coronavirus pandemic that has infected over 16.3 million and killed more than 669, 000 people globally as at the last count , it is that the current socio-economic system, represented by global capitalism cannot take humanity forward to the next stage of civilization. More than ever before, the need to replace the capitalist system with a genuinely democratic socialist system is more urgent now than ever. Aside the human deaths recorded through the pandemic, the economic maelstrom – not to mention social chaos – that has accompanied it, further underscores the chaotic and anarchical nature of capitalist system.
The Coronavirus pandemic has also exposed the ineptitude of the global, especially western, capitalist leaders and their strategists. While the world is more than ever interconnected, the capitalist leaders preferred to act in the myopic interests of their various national capitalist class. According to report from a data firm, Dun and Brastreet, about 51, 000 companies worldwide have one or more direct suppliers from Wuhan, the epicenter of Covid-19 pandemic. In fact, according to the report, not less than 5 million companies worldwide have tier-one (primary) suppliers or tier-two (secondary or suppliers of primary suppliers) in the Wuhan region, while 938 companies, of the Fortune 1000 companies (leading global 1000 companies in the world) have tier-one or tier-two suppliers coming from Wuhan region . Thus it is not accidental that the disease spread quickly and widely within a short time. This shows the interconnectedness of global capitalism. Given this reality, it would be expected that global capitalist leaders will immediately respond to the challenge.
Unfortunately, when the disease started in China, aside the Chinese regime’s earlier denial, the cynicism of western capitalist ruling classes contributed to the rapid rise of disease, and the high infection and mortality rates. This shows the ineptitude of capitalist leaders and their adherence to the myopic logic of the market. They are more interested in keeping the capitalist profit making going at all cost, while ignoring the long-term impact on the society. Given the interconnectivity of supply chain globally, it would have made sense for western capitalist governments to act concertedly and collectively to face the disease, especially given the preeminence of China in the global production and supply chain. While global capitalist classes are prepared to go to any length in search of profits, they are not prepared to respond to any outcome of the pandemic. The attitude of the western capitalist governments to the disease at its infancy stage is not different from the attitude of inept governments in third world countries. Obviously, and from various reports, if there have been concerted effort to help China deal with the disease, coupled with instant action to curtail the spread, hundreds of thousands of lives could have been saved. But the Trump of this world, and his acolytes in Europe were only interested in using the disease to bash China and score geopolitical point against it. When this is contrasted with solidarity and support shown by ordinary working people in third world and globally for each other, it is clear global capitalist leaders and their strategists are really overrated.
No doubt, this is not the first time that human race will witness a pandemic or a health crisis of international proportion, that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. While it may also be true that the Covid-19 pandemic came as a natural incident, evidences suggest that human activities contributed to its rise. Moreover, given the current level of scientific and economic advancements, it is clear that the disease could have been better managed and contained, to reduce fatalities and victims to the barest minimum. While the Covid-19 disease might have developed as a natural disease, the fact that major capitalist and global powers failed to utilize the experience of the past to plan for future reflect the chaotic nature of capitalist system. It is a known fact that the current Coronavirus is a strain of a generic flu-related corona viruses, which have been witnessed in the last 15 to 20 years, especially in the outbreak of such diseases as MERS and SARS.
In fact, according to WHO earlier reports, it was noted that the SARS strain of 2003, which is linked with coronavirus and also originated in China, was transferred to human through wild animals. It is also reported by WHO that more than 70 percent of global disease pathogens since the last 50 years were zoonotic (i.e. transferred from animal to man). Yet, wild animal business is a big business in China worth over $74 billion , with Wuhan in the Hubei province being one of the popular markets for the wild animal. The same Chinese government that allowed this business that employed 14 million to go on , was compelled to close it down by fiat, without adequate provision for millions of jobs to be lost, thus effectively driving the business underground and uncontrolled.
Indeed, a report by Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), convened and sponsored by the WHO, World Bank and Gates Foundation, had issued a warning in September 2019 about the weakness of global health system to respond to a pandemic, with the warning that as much as 50 to 80 million people could die from a new pandemic. Having studied the rise of various global diseases including SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, etc., and taking into cognisance the increasing industrial, economic and transport activities globally, the board expected the world to be close to a new pandemic. The board called for investment in global public health system to prepare for this pandemic. But this did not yield expected response . Attack on public health systems continued in several countries, including the advanced capitalist countries that have the resources to not only build a strong public health system, but also help the third world countries in improving and strengthening their public health systems. Indeed, the Trump administration was reported to have, in September 2019, stopped funding for a global research programme monitoring the rise in zoonotic diseases and pandemics .
Rather than undertake extensive research and develop adequate medical, pharmaceutical and social response systems for the viruses, the various capitalist governments across the world simply carried on as though nothing happened. Various independent and official research works carried out in relation to these diseases, which pointed to the high possibility of greater health dangers, were simply ignored . This is not strange in the capitalist world, since every research is usually commercialized and privatized for private businesses in the health and pharmaceutical industries to make big bucks. And since there is no immediate money to make from the scientific research works on the disease, even when they signaled health danger, they are simply abandoned or not taken seriously. Worse still, the cynical attitude of most western political leaders added to inability to curtail the pandemic, as most of them just wished the disease will go away soon, or were more focused on protecting the capitalist economic growth as much as possible. In fact, many of them saw the disease as a Chinese burden rather than international problem.
More than this, the Covid-19 pandemic also paints a gloomy future for mankind especially as relating to climatic catastrophe. While the impacts of climate change and unbridled industrial activities on the rise of Covid-19 disease have not been fully explored, there are clear evidence that human activities, and possibly climatic factors, might have played role in the rise of the coronavirus disease. According to IPCC report , a rise in heat level from 1.5 to 2.0 0Celsius higher than pre-industrial level will lead to the risk of invasive species attacking human communities. As noted earlier, WHO had reported that more than 70 percent of disease-causing pathogens came from animal to human, in the last 50 years.
Moreover, it has been reported that through research, that human activities, especially industrial activities and urbanization, have changed global ecosystem, exposing many microorganisms, hitherto cohabiting with wild life in the jungles, to human society . Many active organisms and microorganisms that used to ensure a balance in the eco-system may have been affected by climate change. The coronavirus was reported to have entered human from wild animals in the wild animal food market in Wuhan. If at around 1.1 0Celsius rise in temperature (above pre-industrial level), we have started witnessing a pandemic, we cannot imagine what the impact will be should the temperature rise to 1.5 or 2.0 0Celsius or more.
Given the unhindered rise in destructive human activities, and the deeper integration of humanity through economic activities, the break out of Covid-19 disease and its rapid spread and impact (health, economic and social) point to a scary future for mankind, should the climate crisis reach a tipping point. Indeed, the Covid-19 pandemic will be a child’s play or a subset of series of calamitous outcomes of a climate catastrophe . Yet, global capitalist classes and governments care no hoot. They, at best, undertake a tokenistic policies such as carbon tax and limited investments in clean energy, just to show that they care, without looking at how to fundamentally change processes of production, distribution and consumption on long term basis in order to save the planet. Whereas there was supposed to be a move towards cleaner energy system, the fact that this is left to the whims of big businesses and capitalist free market operation, means that this will take several years to achieve on a systemic and fundamental basis.
While there is marginal increase in investment in cleaner energy system such as solar, wind and electric power systems, the reality is that fossil fuel is still very much a big and increasing business globally – with new oil fields being opened up, while US oil and gas production is expected to be higher than that of Russia by 2024. Global clean energy investment increased from $45 billion in 2004 to $279.8 billion in 2018 (about 620 percent increase in 14 years), meanwhile, between 2010 and 2019, US shale oil production alone increased from 0.59 million barrels per day to 7.43 million barrels per day (over 1200 percent increase in 9 years); while capital expenditure (capital investment) in the global oil and gas sector totaled $3.2 trillion in just 5 years (2014–2019) , showing strong appetite for fossil fuel, a major contributor to Green House Gases emission and thus climate change . Even beyond the fuel being used for production and distribution is the unbridled industrial processes where dangerous and harmful chemicals are released to the environment. Added to this is the growing rate of deforestation and land degradation, which in 2019 contributed as much as 10 percent (4.8 billion tonnes) of global CO2 emission , second only to fossil fuel burning.
Now, we are moving faster to an irreversible period in climate change, with underdeveloped countries at greatest risk. 2015 through 2019 was reported to be the hottest 5-year period in history, with an increase of 0.2 0Celsius over the previous 5-year period (2011-2015) ; while CO2 emission increased to 207 Giga-ton (Gt) from 200 Gt within the two observed 5-year periods (2015-2019 and 2010-2014), an increase of 3.5 percent . CO2 emission is projected to reduce by 2.6 Giga-tons (about 8 percent) in 2020 , basically as a result of slowing down in global economic and trade activities. However, this minimal gain in reduction of CO2 emission may be lost through other means including increase in deforestation especially in third world countries, as a result of poverty-induced change in energy use.
Furthermore, investment in renewable electricity supply is expected to fall in 2020 by 13 percent below 2019 level as only 167 Giga-watts (GW) is expected to be added in the year. This will of course further undermine the already-limited plans of capitalist governments – such as the 2017 Paris Climate Agreement – to reduce global GHG and reverse climate change drift. Just a few centimeter rise in ocean level or marginal increase in temperature was enough to cause serious dislocation for not just the economies of many third world countries, especially in Africa, in the last 10 years but also has the capacity to upturn the global capitalist system, which sits like a heavy load on a knife edge as adverse and extreme climatic conditions such as wildfires, flood, drought, tornadoes, cyclones and hurricanes wreak havoc around the world.
But it would be wishful thinking to expect capitalist classes and the ruling classes that defend them across the world to take a more holistic stand on climate issue. Just $3.4 billion out of $64 billion clean energy initiative in 2018 came from private equity and venture capital businesses , so much for free market plans for climate change. Halting climate change will require a planned means of production and distribution across the world towards environmentally sustainable and clean energy and production systems. This will require restructuring global economy towards redistributing global wealth, resources and production that will favour poor countries who rely on fossil fuel and environmentally destructive mining; a process that is alien to the anarchical and chaotic nature of capitalism. Under capitalism, capital move to where the profits can best be made, with little or no consideration to the impact on environment, humanity and the future. With socialist planned production and distribution, the immediate aim is to provide for the needs of the majority and sustain the environment and the future, in order to stop chaotic human activities that destroy the environment. Therefore, capitalism and a sustainable future cannot cohabit on a long term basis.
Human race seems to be in for an era of continuous epidemics and pandemic. No doubt, capitalism, especially in its current uncontrolled form, portends major disaster for humanity, given the unprecedented quest for profits at the expense of future survival of humanity. All the so-called solutions offered by capitalist strategists for climate crisis will not safe humanity unless the principle of individualism and profit-maximization that drive capitalism is put to an end. Until humanity, rather than profit, becomes the centerpiece of production, distribution, policy formulation and exchange, all solutions to climate crisis will end in fiasco. This is not a doomsday prophesy, but a reality from the anarchical production and distribution systems of the capitalist system, the principle of the so-called invisible hand, or the false idea of trickle-down economy.
KOLA IBRAHIM
[Kola Ibrahim, a socialist and labour activists and scholar is an author of COVID-19 AND FALTERING CAPITALISM: ANALYSIS AND ALTERNATIVE, and seven (7) other books. He writes from Osogbo, Nigeria, and can be contacted via 08059399178, kmarx4life@gmail.com. This piece is an edited excerpt from his latest book, COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND FALTERING CAPITALISM: ANALYSIS AND ALTERNATIVE.]