Several of the ideas that flow from On War, the unfinished masterpiece of the 19th century Prussian general, Carl von Clausewitz, remain relevant today and could be applied in the analysis of any return on investment model (ROI). One of these notions is the ‘Rational Calculus of War’ in which Clausewitz argued that there should be a correlation between the value a state attaches to its goals and the means it uses to achieve them. Clausewitz argued that since war is not a senseless passion but a rational activity driven by clear objectives, the value a state attaches to these objectives must determine the sacrifices to be made during the war. In essence, there comes a time when we must pause to do means-end (or return on investment) analysis and decide whether the cost of pursuing a particular objective is really worth it.
There is no doubt that Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, the Jagaban, invested tremendous resources – materially and otherwise- in helping not just for the actualization of the mega merger that resulted in the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) but also in the historic victory of Muhammadu Buhari in the March 2015 presidential election. It is however not a secret that Tinubu has not been happy with his party for a while. Matters came to a head in September 2016 when Tinubu openly called for the resignation of the national chairman of the APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, whom he accused of manipulating the outcome of the party’s gubernatorial primary in Ondo state in which Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN) who is now the Gorvenor-elect, defeated his favoured candidate, Olusegun Abraham. From all indications, the party’s establishment and the presidency took sides with Oyegun. Tinubu felt thrown under the bus. The general feeling was that he would use the opportunity of the Ondo election to pull his weight and teach his traducers one or two lessons. For that reason, many saw the Ondo state Governorship election as a proxy contest between forces loyal to Tinubu and those loyal to the presidency and the APC. This perception was accentuated when Tinubu and his loyalists stayed away from a rally for Akeredolu attended by the president and some top members of the party. During that rally the president was quoted as expressing confidence in the processes that led to the emergence of Akeredolu as the party’s flag bearer in the state.