The elections have been fought and won. An opposition candidate has (for the first time in Nigeria’s history) has defeated an incumbent that was incompetent on matters of security and fiscal management of the economy. The defeated President was also accused of being as sectional towards the south as the Yar Adua government was sectional towards the North.
With the elections won and critical members of the presidency appointed, we have gleaned that the new President (a man that joined a multi ethnic army under a British, Northern and Southern heads of the army, later became GOC of many divisions in different parts of the country under a Northern President, worked as Petroleum Minister under a Southern Head of State, became Head of state with ministers from all parts of the country reporting to him) is truly only comfortable working with people from the Northern part of the Country. Despite the fact that most of his appointees have had requisite experience to suggest that a convincing argument can be advanced to argue that their appointments were based on merit, the fact of the matter is that we all know that if the instincts and impulses of the Nigerian president was to have an all inclusive Presidency, he could have found competent hands from North and South to appoint. That said, at the present time his appointments into government now share space with some of Jonathan’s appointments that are yet to be removed. So, for now the Nigerian government still wears a Nigerian look even if the Presidency wears a distinctly Northern look.
The Buhari body language has enabled electricity generation. All over the country reports are abound on the improvement in electricity generation. Whether this is due to fear of the consequences of the continued sabotage by a powerful cabal within that sector is difficult to say. What cannot be doubted is that his presence (if not his actions) has precipitated an improvement in electricity provision within Nigeria and the concomitant effect that could have on the economy.
The Boko Haram war is now being fought with brains and not brawn (as it was under Jonathan). Buhari’s Nigeria is alive to the fact that an enemy force operating out of Sambisa forest needs food, petroleum, drugs and the delivery of ammunition. None of which can be bought within Sambisa forest. The present army tactics is to starve Boko Haram of the essential things they need to prosecute their rebellion against the Nigerian state whilst tightening the noose around them by ensuring all border countries are fully on board. Their will to fight will be progressively crushed as the walls will metaphorically start to close in on them. Their imminent surrender and the Army’s acceptance of their surrender will be an act of mercy (much in the same way as Nigeria forced the surrender of Biafra in 1970).
That (unfortunately) is where Buhari’s successes ends. President Buhari has been operating as a one man Government advised by a Northern dominated presidency for the better part of 4 months. He has now launched an attack on the Senate Presidency through the joint prosecution of the senate presidency and his wife at the same time. That singular act has unsettled and angered both the body of APC senators that supported Saraki (which unlike Dogara;s House of reps are marginally more than the APC senators that supported Lawan). Chances are that it will be virtually impossible for Buhari to get any of his appointments made so far or ministers to be made by September approved by this Senate. I see no reason why the prosecution of Saraki could not have been delayed for 3 months to allow Buhari get his awaited ministers approved by the senate.
Unless, Buhari does not want “noise makers” as cabinet colleagues! I get the distinct impression Buhari prefers the status quo. He has delayed his nomination of ministers that have to reflect federal character to the latest possible moment he promised Nigerians and have made sure that he has fully antagonized the Senate President and the majority of the Senate before he has even sent his list of nominees to them!! The constitution requires all policies of state to be subject to discussions within the Federal Executive Council and its members are required to be ministers that reflect indigenes of all existing states within Nigeria. This is not being done and this omission is a subsisting breach of the constitution. One can either infer that Buhari is either politically naïve or exceedingly Machiavellian. I am not sure which of the two (or whether both) actually applies here.
The fact that he could not maintain the support of his coup making colleagues for more than a year and a half or maintain the political cohesion within the APP following the 2003 elections without it descending into fractional warfare or prevent his CPC from becoming factionalized in most states, shows that his political antennae are not the best at the best of times. It can also be said that if he became more involved (when he should have) in the matters of NASS at the onset instead of preaching about his willingness to work with anybody elected to NASS leadership positions then the APC would have been spared the chaos in which it is now descending. His anti-corruption posture (even if the best one can say of Buhari himself is that he is significantly less corrupt than his predecessors) is not the sole indicator of leadership. He has never been able to lead men without significant attrition to the body to which he heads. APC (under his leadership) will, like APP and CPC before it, become heavily factionalized. It is a question of when not if.
What is also clear, is that he will face impeachment proceedings within the next two years (most likely during a steep downturn within the economy and after his current high approval ratings in 4 of the 6 zones starts to wane) at the very latest!!
On the economy, the current price per barrel of oil is over $40 dollars. Nigeria is also devoid of the militancy within the Niger delta that severely restricted oil production within Nigeria during much of the mid 2000’s. Nigeria’s economy grew at significant percentages from 1999-2007 despite oil prices and oil production being less than it is today because it had the right mix of fiscal and monetary policies. I however project that Buhari’s quaint and antiquated knowledge of matters of the economy allied with the incompetence of the current CBN governor (who never had any monetary expertise necessary for that post in the first place) means that the Nigerian economy will most likely start to contract by the end of this year or during 2016. Buhari inherited a poor state of FG finances. That should not cause a contraction of GDP. Even if the FG has to bring its’ spending in line with its revenues, it must ensure that the CBN pursues growth friendly policies at the same time to avoid a contraction of the economy. At the moment, both fiscal and monetary policies are contracting the Nigerian economy and there can be only one outcome. Buhari needs a very good finance minister (neither Utomi or Soludo, from past performance only, are it). He may also need an economic adviser working directly within the Presidency. Such person should be independent of the CBN governor and finance minister to ensure he avoids the mistake made by Jonathan where an incompetent but power hungry finance minister was able to have her protégés in all strata of the finance establishment of the Nigerian state within Nigeria. His economic adviser will (and should) be able to watch and advise the President on the policies suggested by the finance minister and CBN governor and breakdown for him the likely the impact of those policies on the economy and ultimately his government.
I have absolutely no objection to the prosecution of the Senate President. I have reservations about its timing only. Even if the Senate President is removed, it will be politically inexpedient to have him replaced with Lawan. The house of reps and senate cannot be led by people from the same zone. I doubt in any event that Lawan will have the votes to prevail in an open election in any event.
Most Nigerians want Buhari to succeed. I fear his innate flaws will be his downfall. The gods (they say) are not to blame!!