A few months had gone by since that fateful day of 28th March, 2015. The
president has been sworn in and the celebrations were loud and boisterous,
but nowhere more so than in some palatial mansion in Abuja where Rotimi
Amaechi is smugly ensconced as he contentedly savours his mess of porridge
as the new Minister of Petroleum Resources.
But in the Niger Delta there had been no celebration, only gloom and
darkness. On some evening, seated by their homesteads, almost in unison
they turn forlorn eyes towards Otuoke where only a few months ago they had
espied the reassuring star of Otuoke shining ever so brilliantly, casting
its audacious beams all across the Niger Delta, like a beacon of hope. And
confirm it to themselves for the umpteenth time that the star had indeed
been dimmed. Taking a cursory glance around their uninspiring environments
they would notice the mouldy nets long since abandoned when they could no
longer bring home any fish on account of the polluted waters; next they
would notice the rusty farming implements long abandoned when the soil
ceased to yield her increase, and would reach the seemingly inevitable
conclusion: the nation state of Nigeria had dealt them a rotten one.
Suddenly overcome by a strange feeling of claustrophobia, as though being
physically constricted by their circumstances, they suddenly blurt out as
one: “We want out!” Not merely out of their dinghy rooms, not even merely
out of their hopeless circumstances, but out of the country that imposed
such unfavourable terms upon their lives. They had stoically borne the
burden for the economic wellbeing of the country like beasts of burden,
but now they wanted out. They wanted a Niger Delta Republic with or
without the South East (depending on the vote), and with or without some
Middle Belt states(again depending on the vote) . Or that, at the very
minimum, they wanted absolute ownership and control over their resources
and destinies.
At first the request would sound like the wishful musings of beggars and
be duly ignored. But the request would become more strident and urgent
and, soon enough, the ex-militants would regroup and Nigeria would be back
in the pre-amnesty era. It is pertinent to note that once the Niger Delta
begin to insist on resource control – and they shall – the GMB government
has failed whatever course of action he adopts. Survival will be at issue
– survival of GMB’s government on the one hand and survival of the nation
as one united entity. Governance will suffer. It would be a loose-loose
situation all round. Sound reason and circumspection would counsel
negotiation. So supposing for a fleeting moment that GMB opts to
negotiate, banking on the Niger Deltans’ traditional magnanimity for them
not to insist on 100%, perhaps even accept not more than 50%. Even then
that would leave much less than usually available to a nation long
accustomed to feeding fat on unearned wealth. The country would suddenly
become too big for the federal government and the states too wide for the
state governments. The public service at the state and federal levels
would be trimmed by half or worse and infrastructure and other aspects of
the economy would languish. GMB’s government would flounder.
But in all probability GMB, brandishing his medals as the Maitatsine
conqueror, would opt for military action and direct the Navy, the Airforce
and the Army to “crush” the militancy. The war would escalate, lives would
be lost on both sides, particularly militants’, and with each militant’s
life lost the burden of collective guilt upon the nation would mount as
the Niger Deltans would be fighting a just war, a war of
self-determination. And with every life lost on the side of the militants
the door of negotiation would be sealed tighter. Foreign powers may weigh
in, perhaps, with a view to aid the fulfillment of their doomsday prophecy
about the country in 2015. Crude oil – that lifeblood of the nation’s
economy – would cease to flow; public schools – universities, secondary
and primary – at both the state and federal levels would be shut; the
power stations would shut down on account of lack of gas; there would be
no fuel or kerosene anywhere in the country, not even in the Niger Delta
as the illegal refineries would not find the crude oil to steal; the
filling stations would shut down; the airports would be shut; all public
institutions would be shut; Nigeria would grind to a halt; the government
would be hard-pressed to find the resources to fund the war. Worse still,
the war would spill onto the hinterland. Every expatriate would become
prime target for kidnapping or outright elimination and every
Southwesterner and northerner (including the middle-beltans even though
many of them might have actually supported GEJ’s reelection bid) would
become persona non grata in the South South. The Hausa-Fulani Muslim north
would respond in kind and turn it into an ethno-religious war
indiscriminately exterminating or expelling all southerners, the Yoruba
inclusive, as well as the Middle-beltans irrespective of religion. Nigeria
would become a failed state. By then a resurrected and resuscitated Boko
Haram, now completely left unattended, would gleefully join in the killing
spree, thereafter go harvesting territory after territory in the north,
then sweep southward like locusts, leaving nothing but wasteland in their
wake, perhaps with the tacit or explicit collaboration of GMB (and even
some Middle Eastern States) who would now find a dual purpose for the
insurgents; firstly to help fulfil his forebear’s failed desire to dip the
Koran in the ocean as well as fulfil his own soul’s avowed desire to see a
Nigeria run by strict shariah law and, second, to provide free extra fire
power to tame the militants and assume complete ownership of their oil and
with the wealth launch an Islamic jihad on the rest of West Africa.
Nigeria would have long become ancient history…
Final Word
On March 28th, 2015, when you go to cast your vote for president, think
about Nigeria’s progress; think about justice and think about Nigeria’s
unity. Nigeria survived GMB once; we may not survive him a second time. We
have a good thing going with this entity called Nigeria; Here is a country
with real potentials to challenge for a spot among the top five economies
of the world in about twenty years or less. Let not greed and politics
spoil it.
Good luck.
(Richard Dominic wrote from Jos. e-mail: richardominic@gmail.com)