History is definitely harsh when viewed through muddy lens and a markedly deceptive mind frame. The thrust of the article that I am responding to is to warn the Yorubas about Northerners and to warn the Northerners about the implications of losing power to the Yorubas (all in one article). It then aims to place the Yorubas in the same boat as igbos for the purposes of Northern progroms and then isolate the Yorubas (especially those that the writer claims to be within the oil and gas industry) from all Nigerians as being the likely target of an imagined malevolent Buhari. One would say (putting it mildly) that the writer was overly ambitious in his intended objective here.
The fact of the matter is that from the perspective of the Yoruba, there has never been an administration that so marginalized the Yoruba like the present government. In his executive cabinet and in the appointments to federal government parastatals, the position of the Yoruba under this government (either as a tribe or when compared to the tribe to which the writer of the original article belongs) has been disgraceful. In many respects, the writer appears to be writing from a self serving perspective. The writer’s tribe has clearly benefited unduly from the actions and appointments of the Jonathan government and he has taken the liberty of expecting the YORUBA to vote against its interest and in favour of the interests of the tribe to which the writer of the original article belongs.
I reference the tribe of the writer, solely because the thrust of the original article of the writer placed a lot of stock on tribe and region in framing his article and his appeal to ethnic and regional interest and sentiments.
Buhari’s Government
The Yoruba were never marginalized in Buhari’s federal executive government at the ministerial level. It was a respected part of the federal cabinet. If anything, it was the supreme military council that was heavily populated by Northerners. That may well have reflected the make up of the coup makers than the conscious decision making process of Buhari. In many respects, Buhari’s negative perception owes less to do with his actions (some draconian others exemplary) as head of state than his actions between 2000-2003.
When Buhari took over power, he met a government laden with debt and low on rsources. His government therefore embarked on a process of reducing government expenditure, questioning government debt and ensuring some measure of discipline within Nigeria. In reducing government expenditure, it laid off many workers (including armed forces personnel) and stopped some projects (Lagos metro project) whilst put the onus on foreign bodies to prove that Nigeria owed the amounts claimed.
I say without any hint of duplicity, that at the time his government was terminated, I will place Buhari worse than Gowon, OBJ and may Balewa but definitely better than all other heads of government of Nigeria to date.
Armed forces
The writer appears to blame OBJ for the failure of Jonathan to re-arm the Nigerian armed forces. A most curious decision indeed. The army (under OBJ) intervened to overturn many coups within West Africa during his reign.
The Army bequeathed to Jonathan completely decimated Boko Haram and killed its leader (whilst under the control of President Yar Adua). That same armed forces has been getting close to 25% of the total budget allocation of the FG for the last couple of years.
The army has a saying that there are no bad soldiers but bad officers. The blame clearly lies in the quality of officers Jonathan has selected to lead the armed forces and its various sub divisions (since he assumed leadership of the country). If the armed forces have proven incapable under him then the best thing for Jonathan to do is to resign.
A rag tag bunch of terrorists is fighting Nigeria and Cameroon at the same time and is holding its ground!! It is getting a beating from Cameroon and is giving Nigeria a beating in return. Gowon fought and defeated a better organized rebel group (that had some international support and had access to regional government revenue) within 2.5 years.
Jonathan is struggling to hold to a truce (talk less of defeating) a terrorist group (with no international support, no access to state government revenue sources, armed and trained during Jonathan’s time in government and fighting Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger all at the same time) for the last 6 years with little or no success.
If BH could arm and become Nigeria’s equal when combat is the measure, then what real justification can Jonathan have for not having a credible armed forces (having allocated 100 times or more money to the forces than BH has allocated to its forces within the same period).
Every Nigerian is simply scandalized by the behaviour of this Nigerian government. A man and his finance minister would rather send condolence messages for the death of 17 people living in far off France than even acknowledge the deaths of thousands of black people/ Nigerians. Even foreigners have found that state of affairs incomprehensible and embarrassing.
Economy
The best government Nigeria has had was indeed a Northern government led by Yakubu Gowon. It was under that government that Nigeria’s GDP was growing at consistent high numbers from 1969-1974. No other government has ever achieved the same level before or since. In second place comes OBJ’s government of 1999-2006. In 2004 alone Nigeria’s GDP grew at 33% (according to the world bank’s revised records). The highest growth achieved under GEJ was 7.8% in 2010 but its average has been around 4.5%. (https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=gdp+growth+nigeria)
OBJ’s government was the economic engine room that powered most of the successes of the YarAdua and Jonathan government. That Jonathan has failed to improve matters is his own fault. As we speak, Nigeria is but months away from a recession. The twin fiscal and monetary policies being implemented at the same time by the Nigerian state can lead to only one outcome. The economy is going to collapse. It will either collapse before May or shortly after May. But collapse it will unless either one of the current fiscal or monetary policies are adjusted and fast.
The international investment community have indicated that it will see Jonathan’s defeat as welcome change due to the poor fiscal management of the economy over the last four years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/o-neill-says-jonathan-vote-loss-may-be-seen-as-nigeria-positive.html
Conclusion
The immature appeal to tribal and regional sentiments by the writer of the article to which I am responding should under normal consequences be ignored due to the clear inconsistencies and obfuscations contained within that article. That said, the Yoruba will make their decision based on its self interest as Nigerians and as Yoruba people and not on the self interest of the writer. It seems bizarre to think that the writer has failed to learn from past experiences (since he seems to revel in trying to use history as a tool of instruction). The Yoruba did not declare Oduduwa before the civil war despite the fact that Biafra needed us to do so in order to make its quest for Biafra a reality nor would the Yoruba vote in favour of an incompetent President simply because the writer feels his tribe has been empowered by the current President. People vote in favour of their own interests not other peoples.
Dele Awogbeoba
Dele.awogbeoba@gmail.com