“YourExcellencies,
“Shortly after his appointment as National Security Adviser, General
Andrew Azazi, at his own request, met with me in my office in Lagos to
discuss the state of the nation. It was on the eve of the 2011 elections.
I told the General that I was not worried about the conduct of the
elections or about the outcome which I expected President Jonathan to win.
“What really worried me, I told the General, was the management of the
violence that would ensue after the elections. I was sure that there would
be violence on a massive scale and I made some suggestions to him about
how I thought the violence could be contained.
“My suggestions were not acted upon. The elections occurred, President
Jonathan won and all hell broke loose. Missing were the
conflict-controlled measures which I had discussed with General Azazi.
“Now we are back at the same crossroads again, except this time is more
precarious and dangerous than the last time.
“Firstly, we have this very notorious prediction from United States
semi-official sources that the world is expecting a cataclysmic meltdown
of the Nigerian nation come 2015. Of course, most Nigerians have taken
umbrage at this prediction for their country. But there are Nigerians who
are indifferent to the outcome of this prediction.
“One of my low moments during the just concluded 2014 National Conference
was when in an attempt to break an impasse, I painted a grim picture of
devastation which would follow a breakdown of the Nigerian state, to which
a delegate between 45 and 55 years old replied: ‘So what?’
“I thought to myself, here is a man who would probably run away to a
neighbouring country at the boom of the first gun but was callously
indifferent to the fate of the youths, women and children who would be
caught in the middle.
“Secondly, the certainty of violence after the 2015 elections is higher
than it was in 2011. If President Jonathan wins, the North would erupt
into violence as it did in 2011. If General Buhari wins, the Niger Delta
will erupt into violence. I don’t believe that we need rocket science to
make this prediction.
“The violence of 2015 is going to be horrendous and worse than the one of
2011 for the simple reason that the illegal, massive importation of
weapons into the country has reached such alarming proportions that I
really wonder which is better armed, the militias on one hand or the
official armed forces on the other hand.
“For the avoidance of doubt, I am not imputing the illegal importation of
arms to any particular zone. Some years ago, some Iranians were arrested
for bringing in a shipload of weapons into Lagos harbour. They were tried
and jailed and then smuggled out of the country.
“Some months ago, sophisticated weapons were discovered buried in the
basement of a Kano house. All these have now fallen below the radar. These
are the ones we know about. How many do we not know about?
“There are states and movements out there, African and non-African, which
do not mean well for the Nigerian state, which wish Nigeria to dissolve
into a theatre of bloodshed, gore and instability.
“They will succeed if we continue the politics of making enemies of
ourselves and friends of our enemies.
Way forward
“The first step forward is for the two Presidential candidates to meet and
sign a Memorandum of Undertaking that will commit both to:
A civil and peaceful campaign, devoid of threats.
A commitment to preach peaceful elections to their supporters.
A commitment to control their supporters after the elections. Supporters
of whoever loses should be entitled to peaceful protests but not to
violent protests.
“I also appeal to the following:
The Sultan, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III
The Emir of Kano, Alhaji Muhammad Sanusi II
The Lamido of Adamawa, Alhaji Muhammadu Barkindo Mustapha
The Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuwade
The Oba of Benin, OmoN’oba Erediauwa
Chief Emeka Anyaoku
Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor
Pastor Enoch Adeboye
His Excellency, General Yakubu Gowon
His Excellency General Abubakar Abdulsalami to facilitate the
pre-election meeting between the candidates, the preparation of the
Memorandum of Undertaking and as a Council of Wisemen to assist in
managing the post-election conflicts.
“Yours sincerely.
Former Nigerian Foreign Minister and Deputy Chairman, 2014 National
Conference.”