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By Tracy Moses
The Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has flagged potential risks and opportunities for Nigeria following the reported exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
In a policy advisory on the development, CRMI said the move signals a possible shift in global oil governance, with implications for market stability, pricing mechanisms, and energy supply chains, particularly for oil-dependent economies such as Nigeria.
The advisory, signed by the Registrar and Chief Executive Officer of the institute, Victor Olannye, noted that the UAE’s withdrawal could weaken OPEC’s cohesion and increase uncertainty in the global oil market. He warned that such a development may lead to heightened oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions across energy supply chains.
Olannye said the institute anticipates several downside risks, including a potential breakdown in OPEC’s coordinated production framework, growing geopolitical instability, and a possible contagion effect if other member states consider similar exits. He added that these trends could contribute to broader macroeconomic uncertainty, especially for countries heavily reliant on oil revenues.
Despite the risks, CRMI identified potential upsides for Nigeria. According to the institute, a less coordinated oil market could offer increased production flexibility and create room for the country to expand its market share, with possible improvements in revenue generation if effectively managed.
However, the institute cautioned that such opportunities come with significant challenges. It warned that Nigeria could face greater exposure to oil price fluctuations, reduced protection from collective supply management, intensified competition among oil-producing nations, and increased fiscal vulnerability.
To mitigate these risks, CRMI advised corporate organisations to strengthen their risk management frameworks, adopt dynamic hedging strategies, and diversify their business portfolios. It also urged financial institutions and investors to reassess their exposure to energy-related assets, enhance portfolio diversification, and improve risk disclosure practices.
For policymakers, the institute emphasised the need to build stronger fiscal buffers, accelerate economic diversification, and promote the transition to renewable energy as part of efforts to enhance long-term economic resilience.
CRMI further called on individual risk professionals to upgrade their skills in geopolitical risk analysis and energy economics, as well as develop expertise in scenario planning and predictive analytics to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving environment.
Looking ahead, the institute projected that the global oil market could witness increasing fragmentation of governance structures, a shift toward more market-driven pricing mechanisms, and an accelerated pace of energy transition.
It, therefore, urged stakeholders across both the public and private sectors to proactively reposition their strategies to manage emerging risks while taking advantage of new opportunities arising from changes in the global energy landscape.